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The other effect is the economy, and we are assuming material worsening of labor markets with the unemployment rate rising from today's very low levels to above 5% by the end of 2023.
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2023 Q1
16 May 23
our credit metrics tend to move, what I've seen just over the many years, probably a quarter or two ahead of the industry in both directions.
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2023 Q1
16 May 23
our charge-offs haven't caught up yet, but based on what we see in our delinquencies, we think they'll get to 2019 levels around the middle of the years -- of the year
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2023 Q1
16 May 23
delinquencies in the first quarter were at 3.66%, which is essentially back to 29 -- 2019 levels
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2023 Q1
16 May 23
the unrealized losses in AOCI from our AFS investment portfolio were $6.7 billion. If we were to include the impact of these unrealized losses in our regulatory capital, our CET1 ratio would have ended the quarter at 10.5%, and we continue to estimate that our longer-term CET1 capital need is around 11%.
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2023 Q1
16 May 23
Tier 1 capital ratio ended the quarter at 12.5%, flat to the prior quarter
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2023 Q1
16 May 23
First, 15 basis points of the decline was a result of having two fewer days in the quarter. And second, the mix impact of the elevated cash balances, that I previously described, pressured NIM by approximately 11 basis points.
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2023 Q1
16 May 23
Our first quarter net interest margin was 6.6%, 24 basis points lower than last quarter and 11 basis points higher than the year ago quarter.
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2023 Q1
16 May 23
the market value of our AFS securities portfolio grew $5 billion to $82 billion at the end of the quarter.
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2023 Q1
16 May 23
Our cash position ended the quarter at $47 billion, up $16 billion from the prior quarter.
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2023 Q1
16 May 23
The coverage on the commercial office portfolio increased about 770 basis points and now stands at 13.9%.
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2023 Q1
16 May 23
$3.6 billion commercial office portfolio
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2023 Q1
16 May 23
in our Commercial Banking business, the allowance increased by $245 million. The coverage ratio increased by 28 basis points and now stands at 1.82%.
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2023 Q1
16 May 23
In our Consumer Banking segment, the allowance balance declined by $32 million, mostly driven by the decline in loans. The coverage ratio increased by 2 basis points and now stands at 2.82%.
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2023 Q1
16 May 23
The second factor is the impact of removing the relatively lower loss content from the first quarter of 2023 and replacing it with higher forecasted loss content for the first quarter of 2024.
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2023 Q1
16 May 23
Our build in the quarter was primarily driven by three factors.
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2023 Q1
16 May 23
In our domestic card business, the allowance balance increased by $867 million, increasing our coverage ratio by 69 basis points to 7.66%.
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2023 Q1
16 May 23
We continue to assume economic worsening from today's levels on most measures.
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2023 Q1
16 May 23
The total company coverage ratio is now 4.64%, up 40 basis points from the prior quarter.
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2023 Q1
16 May 23
Provision expense was $2.8 billion, driven by net charge offs of $1.7 billion and an allowance build of $1.1 billion.
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2023 Q1
16 May 23