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the capital and liquidity strength and ratios are just incredibly high end with us by every measure that one can see
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2023 Q1
18 Apr 23
we feel comfortable continuing the buyback.
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2023 Q1
18 Apr 23
You said you're not changing your buyback.
So you have $4.5 billion for the year.
You've done $1.25 billion.
So you have $3.25 billion left.
With the current market decline, that would be 14% of your market cap.
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2023 Q1
18 Apr 23
If you look at the liquidity coverage ratio, which Eric walked you through, it's up at 124% now. It's actually gone up, not down.
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2023 Q1
18 Apr 23
there is nothing here that approaches a liquidity issue, right? These are custody deposits.
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2023 Q1
18 Apr 23
So just taking the worst case, you go down to the $30 billion, it hurts you $15 million, we're talking about $200 million of earnings lost which might be around 7% or 8% of your EPS, if you look at kind of a run rate sort of thing.
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2023 Q1
18 Apr 23
You think base case, it might go down to $34 billion, but the low end of the range, which is possible later this year would be $30 billion. That would be going maybe non-interest-bearing deposits from $44 billion down to $30 billion, that would be $14 billion less than free money.
You said it was $12 million to $15 million per $1 billion.
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2023 Q1
18 Apr 23
they shift from non-interest-bearing to interest-bearing. They shift across currency sometimes because of their sophistication.
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2023 Q1
18 Apr 23
Management fees should give us some lift as well as we have some equity market appreciation -- equity and bond market appreciation into the second quarter.
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2023 Q1
18 Apr 23
On servicing fees, we -- as Eric noted, we do expect growth, and it's driven by a couple of things.
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2023 Q1
18 Apr 23
we spend as much time on duration curve shape as we do on carefully also running some MBS portfolios where there is some additional yield pickup, but you've got to be careful in terms of the level of convexity risk that you take.
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2023 Q1
18 Apr 23
we're doing this around the globe. We've got about a third of our balance sheets in international jurisdictions
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2023 Q1
18 Apr 23
I think it's typically in the two and a half to 2.8 years
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2023 Q1
18 Apr 23
Our buybacks aren't once and done. They're done over the course of the next eight to 10 weeks
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2023 Q1
18 Apr 23
in the U.S., with prevailing rates at where they are, you have this non-interest-bearing to interest-bearing rotation on one hand
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2023 Q1
18 Apr 23
clients are incredibly sticky and stable from an operational standpoint. Operational deposit balances were steady
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2023 Q1
18 Apr 23
we expect deposits probably to trend down another few billion into the second quarter
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2023 Q1
18 Apr 23
some of our clients who are sophisticated institutions are also looking at some of the other strong rates that they can get either in treasuries or money market funds.
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2023 Q1
18 Apr 23
the last peak was $50 billion, and the last low was about $30 billion, and right now, we're sitting at about $39 billion
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2023 Q1
18 Apr 23
when you earn 5% or more for those kinds of deposits on the asset side and then pay zero, that can be a significant -- that's a significant amount of NII, right? Every $1 billion is worth $12 million, sometimes $15 million per quarter.
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2023 Q1
18 Apr 23