AMBC AMBAC Financial Dashboard

Risks

• Investments in AFG's common stock are highly speculative and the price per share of AFG's common stock may be subject to a high degree of volatility, including significant price declines.
• The occurrence of certain events could result in the initiation of rehabilitation proceedings against AAC, with resulting adverse consequences to holders of our securities.
• AFG may not be able to realize value from AAC or generate earnings apart from AAC.
• Loss reserves may not be adequate to cover potential losses, and changes in loss reserves may result in further volatility of net income and comprehensive income.
• Some issuers of public finance obligations insured by AAC are experiencing fiscal stress that could result in increased losses on those obligations or increased liquidity claims, including losses or claims resulting from payment defaults, Chapter 9 bankruptcy or other restructuring proceedings or loss of market access.
• Catastrophic public health or environmental events, like the COVID-19 pandemic or those associated with hurricanes, earthquakes, wildfires and droughts, that result in material disruption of economic activity, loss of human life or significant property damage, can have a materially negative impact on the financial performance of issuers of public finance, structured finance, investor owned utility, privatized military housing and other obligations insured by AAC. Such stresses could result in liquidity claims and/or permanent losses on obligations of those obligations.
• AAC insures obligations of the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, including certain of its authorities and public corporations that are either subject to a Title III bankruptcy protection proceeding under the Puerto Rico Oversight, Management and Stability Act ("PROMESA") or have otherwise suspended debt service payments. AAC has made and may continue to be required to make significant amounts of policy payments over the next several years, the recoverability of which is subject to great uncertainty, which may lead to material permanent losses. While we believe our reserves are adequate to cover losses on Puerto Rico insured bonds, there can be no assurance that AAC may not incur additional losses in the future, particularly given the uncertainty related to the ongoing Title III proceedings and the developing economic, political and legal circumstances in Puerto Rico. Such losses may have a material adverse effect on AAC's results of operation and financial condition.
• Certain judicial decisions related to the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico's PROMESA Title III proceedings may materially adversely affect our Public Finance insured portfolio.
• We are subject to credit risk and other risks in our insured portfolio, including related to RMBS and securities backed by student loans. We are also subject to risks associated with adverse selection as our insured portfolio runs off. Measures taken to reduce such risks may have an adverse effect on the Company's operating results or financial position.
• Our credit risk management policies and practices may not adequately identify significant risks.
• We use analytical models and tools to assist our projection of performance of our insured obligations and our investment portfolio but actual results could differ materially from the model and tool outputs and related analyses.
• Political developments may materially adversely affect our insured portfolio.
• AAC's ability to generate the significant amount of cash needed to service its debt and financial obligations and its ability to refinance all or a portion of its indebtedness or obtain additional financing depends on many factors beyond our control.
• We have substantial indebtedness, which could adversely affect our financial condition, operational flexibility and our ability to obtain financing in the future.
• There may not be sufficient collateral to pay any or all of the Secured Notes or Tier 2 Notes.
• AAC has not made regular interest or principal payments on surplus notes and can not provide any assurance as to when payments will be made, if ever.
• Surplus notes are subordinated in right of payment to other claims, which could impair the right of the holders of such notes to receive interest and principal in the event of our insolvency or a similar occurrence.
• The amount of interest payable on the Secured Notes is set only once per interest period based on the three-month LIBOR rate on the applicable interest determination date, which rate may fluctuate substantially; increases in interest rates will increase the cost of servicing our debt reducing our profitability and may affect our ability to make payment on the Secured Notes.
• Ambac’s estimated R&W recovery may be reduced, causing the perceived value of the collateral securing the Secured Notes and Tier 2 Notes to change, and any such change may be material.
• Our inability to realize the expected recoveries included in our financial statements could adversely impact our liquidity, financial condition and results of operations and the value of our securities, including the Secured Notes and Tier 2 Notes.
• Ambac’s estimate of RMBS litigation recoveries is subject to significant uncertainty and changes to the estimate could adversely impact its liquidity, financial condition and results of operations.
• We may not be able to commute or reduce FG insured exposures.
• Revenues and cash flow would be adversely impacted by a decline in realization of installment premiums.
• The composition of the securities in our investment portfolio exposes us to greater risk than before we invested in "alternative assets."
• We may have future capital needs and may not be able to obtain third-party financing or raise additional third-party capital on acceptable terms, or at all.
• AAC may in the future report a policyholders’ deficit or become insolvent.
• The determination of the amount of credit impairments taken on our investments is highly subjective and could materially impact our results of operations or financial position.
• Changes in prevailing interest rate levels and market conditions could adversely impact our business results and prospects.
• We are subject to credit risk throughout our businesses, including large single risks, risk concentrations, correlated risks and reinsurance counterparty credit risk.
• Uncertainties regarding the expected discontinuance of the London Inter-Bank Offered Rate or any other interest rate benchmark could have adverse consequences.
• We are subject to the risk of litigation and regulatory inquiries or investigations, and the outcome of proceedings we are or may become involved in could have a material adverse effect on our business, operations, financial position, profitability or cash flows.
• The Settlement Agreement, Stipulation and Order and Indenture for the Tier 2 Notes contain restrictive covenants that may impair our ability to pursue our business strategies.
• System security risks, data protection breaches and cyber-attacks could adversely affect our business and results of operations.
• We may be adversely affected by failures in services or products provided by third parties.
• Our inability to attract and retain qualified executives and employees or the loss of any of these personnel could negatively impact our business.
• Our business could be negatively affected by actions of stakeholders whose interests may not be aligned with the broader interests of our stockholders.
• Actions of the PRA and FCA could reduce the value of Ambac UK realizable by AAC, which would adversely affect our securityholders.
• Regulatory uncertainty in relation to Ambac UK’s capital position could adversely affect the value of Ambac UK and affect our securityholders.
• Surplus notes received in the AMPS Exchange and by holders of Deferred Amounts pursuant to the Second Amended Plan of Rehabilitation along with other debt reissued by Ambac may not be fungible for U.S. federal income tax purposes with other surplus notes and debt currently outstanding.
• Certain surplus notes or other obligations of AAC may be characterized as equity of AAC and as a result, AAC may no longer be a member of the U.S. federal income tax consolidated group of which AFG is the common parent.
• If surplus notes or other obligations are characterized as equity of AAC, the AAC NOLs (and certain other tax attributes or tax benefits of the Ambac Consolidated Group) may be subject to limitation under Section 382 of the Tax Code.
• Deductions with respect to interest accruing on certain surplus notes may be eliminated or deferred until payment.
• Ambac is planning to further develop and expand the Specialty Property and Casualty Program Insurance business and the Managing General Agency/Underwriting business, which may permit utilization of Ambac’s net operating loss carry-forwards; however, such plans may not be realized, or if realized, may not create value and may negatively impact our financial results.
• Xchange derives a significant portion of its commission revenues from a limited number of insurance companies, the loss of any of which could result in lower commissions or loss of business production.
• Xchange’s business, results of operation, financial condition and liquidity may be materially adversely affected by certain potential claims, regulatory actions or proceedings.
• Xchange’s current market share may decrease because of disintermediation within the insurance industry, including increased competition from insurance companies, technology companies and the financial services industry, as well as the shift away from traditional insurance markets.
• Changes in law or in the functioning of the healthcare market could significantly impair Xchange’s business and therefore negatively impact Ambac’s financial condition and results of operation.
• Xchange’s business and results of operation and financial condition may be adversely affected by conditions that result in reduced insurer capacity.
• Variations in Xchange’s commissions that result from the timing of policy renewals and the net effect of new and lost business production may have unexpected effects on our results of operation.