UNITED STATES

SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION

WASHINGTON, D.C. 20549

FORM 10-Q

(Mark one)

☑ QUARTERLY REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934.

For the quarterly period ended ~~March 31, 2020~~.June 30, 2020.

☐ TRANSITION REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934.

For the transition period from _____________________ to _____________________.

Commission file number 0-4604

CINCINNATI FINANCIAL CORPORATION

(Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter)

Ohio

31-0746871

(State or other jurisdiction of

incorporation or organization)

(I.R.S. Employer Identification No.)

6200 S. Gilmore Road,

~~Fairfield,~~

~~Ohio~~Fairfield,

Ohio

45014-5141

(Address of principal executive offices)

(Zip code)

Registrant's telephone number, including area code: (513) 870-2000

N/A

(Former name or former address, if changed since last report.)

Securities registered pursuant to Section 12(b) of the Act:

Title of each class

Trading Symbol(s)

Name of each exchange on which registered

Common stock

CINF

Nasdaq Global Select Market

Indicate by check mark whether the registrant (1) has filed all reports required to be filed by Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 during the preceding 12 months (or for such shorter period that the registrant was required to file such reports), and (2) has been subject to such filing requirements for the past 90 days.

☑Yes ☐ No

Indicate by check mark whether the registrant has submitted electronically every Interactive Data File required to be submitted ~~and posted~~ pursuant to Rule 405 of Regulation S-T (§232.405 of this chapter) during the preceding 12 months (or for such shorter period that the registrant was required to submit such files).

☑Yes ☐ No

Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is a large accelerated filer, an accelerated filer, a nonaccelerated filer, a smaller reporting company or an emerging growth company. See definition of "large accelerated filer," "accelerated filer," "smaller reporting company" and "emerging growth company" in Rule 12b-2 of the Exchange Act.

☑ Large accelerated filer ☐ Accelerated filer ☐ Nonaccelerated filer ☐ Smaller reporting company

☐ Emerging growth company

☐ If an emerging growth company, indicate by check mark if the registrant has elected not to use the extended transition period for complying with any new or revised financial accounting standards provided pursuant to Section 13(a) of the Exchange Act.

Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is a shell company (as defined in Rule 12b-2 of the Exchange Act):

☐Yes ☑ No

As of ~~April 22,~~July 23, 2020, there were ~~160,801,531~~160,853,505 shares of common stock outstanding.

CINCINNATI FINANCIAL CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES

FORM 10-Q FOR THE QUARTER ENDED ~~March 31,~~June 30, 2020

TABLE OF CONTENTS


Part I – Financial Information		3

Item 1. Financial Statements (unaudited)		3

Condensed Consolidated Balance Sheets		3

Condensed Consolidated Statements of Income		4

~~Part I – Financial Information~~		3

~~Item 1. Financial Statements~~ ~~(unaudited)~~	3

~~Condensed Consolidated Balance Sheets~~	3

~~Condensed Consolidated Statements of~~ ~~Income~~	4

Condensed Consolidated Statements of Comprehensive Income	5

Condensed Consolidated Statements of Shareholders’ Equity		6

Condensed Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows		7

Notes to Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements (unaudited)		8

Item 2. Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations		2527

~~Safe Harbor Statement~~	25

~~Corporate Financial Highlights~~	27

~~Financial~~ Safe Harbor Statement~~Results~~		3627

Corporate Financial Highlights		29

Financial Results		39

Liquidity and Capital Resources		5256

Other Matters		5660

Item 3. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures about Market Risk		5660

Item 4. Controls and Procedures		6266

Part II – Other Information		6368

Item 1. Legal Proceedings		6368

Item 1A. Risk Factors		6368

Item 2. Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities and Use of Proceeds		6469

Item 6. Exhibits		6570

Cincinnati Financial Corporation Second-Quarter 2020 10-Q

Page 2

Part I – Financial Information

Item 1. Financial Statements (unaudited)

Cincinnati Financial Corporation and Subsidiaries

Condensed Consolidated Balance Sheets


(Dollars in millions, except per share data)	March 31,			December 31,			(Dollars in millions, except per share data)	June 30,		December 31,
	2020			2019				2020		2019
Assets							Assets
Investments							Investments
Fixed maturities, at fair value (amortized cost: 2020—$11,074; 2019—$11,108)	$	11,340		$	11,698
Equity securities, at fair value (cost: 2020—$3,702; 2019—$3,581)	6,225			7,752
Fixed maturities, at fair value (amortized cost: 2020—$11,139; 2019—$11,108)							Fixed maturities, at fair value (amortized cost: 2020—$11,139; 2019—$11,108)	$	11,911	$	11,698
Equity securities, at fair value (cost: 2020—$3,752; 2019—$3,581)							Equity securities, at fair value (cost: 2020—$3,752; 2019—$3,581)	7,317		7,752

Other invested assets	311			296			Other invested assets	259		296
Total investments	17,876			19,746			Total investments	19,487		19,746
Cash and cash equivalents	486			767			Cash and cash equivalents	706		767

Investment income receivable	124			133			Investment income receivable	131		133
Finance receivable	76			77			Finance receivable	86		77
Premiums receivable	1,900			1,777			Premiums receivable	2,051		1,777
Reinsurance recoverable	567			610			Reinsurance recoverable	528		610
Prepaid reinsurance premiums	57			54			Prepaid reinsurance premiums	91		54
Deferred policy acquisition costs	827			774			Deferred policy acquisition costs	834		774
Land, building and equipment, net, for company use (accumulated depreciation: 2020—$281; 2019—$276)	208			207
Land, building and equipment, net, for company use (accumulated depreciation: 2020—$280; 2019—$276)							Land, building and equipment, net, for company use (accumulated depreciation: 2020—$280; 2019—$276)	209		207
Other assets	388			381			Other assets	416		381
Separate accounts	858			882			Separate accounts	911		882
Total assets	$	23,367		$	25,408		Total assets	$	25,450	$	25,408

Liabilities							Liabilities
Insurance reserves							Insurance reserves
Loss and loss expense reserves	$	6,206		$	6,147		Loss and loss expense reserves	$	6,463	$	6,147
Life policy and investment contract reserves	2,861			2,835			Life policy and investment contract reserves	2,881		2,835
Unearned premiums	2,922			2,788			Unearned premiums	3,107		2,788
Other liabilities	858			928			Other liabilities	884		928
Deferred income tax	660			1,079			Deferred income tax	979		1,079
Note payable	114			39			Note payable	122		39
Long-term debt and lease obligations	846			846			Long-term debt and lease obligations	845		846
Separate accounts	858			882			Separate accounts	911		882
Total liabilities	15,325			15,544			Total liabilities	16,192		15,544

Commitments and contingent liabilities (Note 12)							Commitments and contingent liabilities (Note 12)

Shareholders' Equity							Shareholders' Equity
Common stock, par value—$2 per share; (authorized: 2020 and 2019—500 million shares; issued: 2020 and 2019—198.3 million shares)	397			397			Common stock, par value—$2 per share; (authorized: 2020 and 2019—500 million shares; issued: 2020 and 2019—198.3 million shares)	397		397
Paid-in capital	1,300			1,306			Paid-in capital	1,309		1,306
Retained earnings	7,932			9,257			Retained earnings	8,745		9,257
Accumulated other comprehensive income	204			448			Accumulated other comprehensive income	597		448
Treasury stock at cost (2020—37.5 million shares and 2019—35.4 million shares)	(1,791		)	(1,544		)	Treasury stock at cost (2020—37.5 million shares and 2019—35.4 million shares)	(1,790)		(1,544)
Total shareholders' equity	8,042			9,864			Total shareholders' equity	9,258		9,864
Total liabilities and shareholders' equity	$	23,367		$	25,408		Total liabilities and shareholders' equity	$	25,450	$	25,408

Accompanying Notes are an integral part of these Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements.

Cincinnati Financial Corporation Second-Quarter 2020 10-Q

Page 3

Cincinnati Financial Corporation and Subsidiaries

Condensed Consolidated Statements of Income


(Dollars in millions, except per share data)	Three months ended March 31,					(Dollars in millions, except per share data)	Three months ended June 30,						Six months ended June 30,
	2020			2019			2020		2019		2020		2019
Revenues						Revenues
Earned premiums	$	1,456		$	1,333	Earned premiums	$	1,482	$	1,384	$	2,938	$	2,717
Investment income, net of expenses	165			157		Investment income, net of expenses	166		160		331		317
Investment gains and losses, net	(1,725		)	663		Investment gains and losses, net	1,060		364		(665)		1,027
Fee revenues	3			4		Fee revenues	3		3		6		7
Other revenues	2			2		Other revenues	3		2		5		4
Total revenues	(99		)	2,159		Total revenues	2,714		1,913		2,615		4,072
Benefits and Expenses						Benefits and Expenses
Insurance losses and contract holders' benefits	1,003			860		Insurance losses and contract holders' benefits	1,086		936		2,089		1,796
Underwriting, acquisition and insurance expenses	456			411		Underwriting, acquisition and insurance expenses	464		430		920		841
Interest expense	13			13		Interest expense	14		13		27		26
Other operating expenses	5			8		Other operating expenses	5		4		10		12
Total benefits and expenses	1,477			1,292		Total benefits and expenses	1,569		1,383		3,046		2,675
Income (Loss) Before Income Taxes	(1,576		)	867		Income (Loss) Before Income Taxes	1,145		530		(431)		1,397
Provision (Benefit) for Income Taxes						Provision (Benefit) for Income Taxes
Current	3			28		Current	23		28		26		56
Deferred	(353		)	144		Deferred	213		74		(140)		218
Total provision (benefit) for income taxes	(350		)	172		Total provision (benefit) for income taxes	236		102		(114)		274
Net Income (Loss)	$	(1,226	)	$	695	Net Income (Loss)	$	909	$	428	$	(317)	$	1,123
Per Common Share						Per Common Share
Net income (loss)—basic	$	(7.56	)	$	4.27	Net income (loss)—basic	$	5.65	$	2.62	$	(1.96)	$	6.89
Net income (loss)—diluted	(7.56		)	4.22		Net income (loss)—diluted	5.63		2.59		(1.96)		6.81

Accompanying Notes are an integral part of these Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements.

Cincinnati Financial Corporation Second-Quarter 2020 10-Q

Page 4

Cincinnati Financial Corporation and Subsidiaries

Condensed Consolidated Statements of Comprehensive Income

(Dollars in millions) Three months ended March 31,
2020 2019
Net Income (Loss) $ (1,226 ) $ 695
Other Comprehensive Income (Loss)

Change in unrealized gains on investments, net of tax (benefit) of $(68) and $50,
respectively
(256 ) 192
Amortization of pension actuarial loss and prior service cost, net of tax of $0 and $0,
respectively
1
—
Change in life deferred acquisition costs, life policy reserves and other, net of tax (benefit) of $3 and $(1), respectively 11
(4 )
Other comprehensive income (loss) (244 ) 188
Comprehensive Income (Loss) $ (1,470 ) $ 883


(Dollars in millions)	Three months ended June 30,						Six months ended June 30,
	2020		2019		2020		2019
Net Income (Loss)	$	909	$	428	$	(317)	$	1,123
Other Comprehensive Income
Change in unrealized gains on investments, net of tax of $107, $43, $39 and $93, respectively	399		157		143		349
Amortization of pension actuarial loss and prior service cost, net of tax of $0, $0, $0 and $0, respectively	1		1		2		1
Change in life deferred acquisition costs, life policy reserves and other, net of tax (benefit) of $(2), $(1), $1 and $(2), respectively	(7)		(4)		4		(8)
Other comprehensive income	393		154		149		342
Comprehensive Income (Loss)	$	1,302	$	582	$	(168)	$	1,465

Accompanying Notes are an integral part of these Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements.

Cincinnati Financial Corporation Second-Quarter 2020 10-Q

Page 5

Cincinnati Financial Corporation and Subsidiaries

Condensed Consolidated Statements of Shareholders' Equity


(Dollars in millions)	Three months ended March 31,						(Dollars in millions)	Three months ended June 30,						Six months ended June 30,
	2020			2019				2020		2019		2020		2019
Common Stock							Common Stock
Beginning of year	$	397		$	397		Beginning of year	$	397	$	397	$	397	$	397
Share-based awards	—			—			Share-based awards	—		—		—		—
End of period	397			397			End of period	397		397		397		397

Paid-In Capital							Paid-In Capital
Beginning of year	1,306			1,281			Beginning of year	1,300		1,277		1,306		1,281
Share-based awards	(16		)	(14		)	Share-based awards	—		1		(16)		(13)
Share-based compensation	9			9			Share-based compensation	7		7		16		16
Other	1			1			Other	2		1		3		2
End of period	1,300			1,277			End of period	1,309		1,286		1,309		1,286

Retained Earnings							Retained Earnings
Beginning of year	9,257			7,625			Beginning of year	7,932		8,229		9,257		7,625
Cumulative effect of change in accounting for credit losses as of January 1, 2020	(2		)	—			Cumulative effect of change in accounting for credit losses as of January 1, 2020	—		—		(2)		—
Adjusted beginning of year	9,255			7,625			Adjusted beginning of year	7,932		8,229		9,255		7,625
Net income (loss)	(1,226		)	695			Net income (loss)	909		428		(317)		1,123
Dividends declared	(97		)	(91		)	Dividends declared	(96)		(91)		(193)		(182)
End of period	7,932			8,229			End of period	8,745		8,566		8,745		8,566

Accumulated Other Comprehensive Income (Loss)
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Income							Accumulated Other Comprehensive Income
Beginning of year	448			22			Beginning of year	204		210		448		22
Other comprehensive income (loss)	(244		)	188

Other comprehensive income							Other comprehensive income	393		154		149		342
End of period	204			210			End of period	597		364		597		364

Treasury Stock							Treasury Stock
Beginning of year	(1,544		)	(1,492		)	Beginning of year	(1,791)		(1,483)		(1,544)		(1,492)
Share-based awards	11			13			Share-based awards	1		3		12		16
Shares acquired - share repurchase authorization	(256		)	—			Shares acquired - share repurchase authorization	—		—		(256)		—
Shares acquired - share-based compensation plans	(3		)	(5		)	Shares acquired - share-based compensation plans	—		(2)		(3)		(7)
Other	1			1			Other	—		—		1		1
End of period	(1,791		)	(1,483		)	End of period	(1,790)		(1,482)		(1,790)		(1,482)

Total Shareholders' Equity	$	8,042		$	8,630		Total Shareholders' Equity	$	9,258	$	9,131	$	9,258	$	9,131

(In millions, except per common share)							(In millions, except per common share)
Common Stock - Shares Outstanding							Common Stock - Shares Outstanding
Beginning of year	162.9			162.8			Beginning of year	160.8		163.2		162.9		162.8
Share-based awards	0.4			0.4			Share-based awards	—		0.1		0.4		0.5
Shares acquired - share repurchase authorization	(2.5		)	—			Shares acquired - share repurchase authorization	—		—		(2.5)		—

End of period	160.8			163.2			End of period	160.8		163.3		160.8		163.3

Dividends declared per common share	$	0.60		$	0.56		Dividends declared per common share	$	0.60	$	0.56	$	1.20	$	1.12

Accompanying Notes are an integral part of these Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements.

Cincinnati Financial Corporation Second-Quarter 2020 10-Q

Page 6

Cincinnati Financial Corporation and Subsidiaries

Condensed Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows


(Dollars in millions)	Three months ended March 31,						(Dollars in millions)	Six months ended June 30,
	2020			2019				2020		2019
Cash Flows From Operating Activities							Cash Flows From Operating Activities
Net income	$	(1,226	)	$	695		Net income	$	(317)	$	1,123
Adjustments to reconcile net income to net cash provided by operating activities:							Adjustments to reconcile net income to net cash provided by operating activities:
Depreciation and amortization	22			19			Depreciation and amortization	42		36
Investment gains and losses, net	1,729			(660		)	Investment gains and losses, net	669		(1,022)
Share-based compensation	9			9			Share-based compensation	16		16
Interest credited to contract holders'	11			11			Interest credited to contract holders'	23		21
Deferred income tax expense	(353		)	144			Deferred income tax expense	(140)		218
Changes in:							Changes in:
Investment income receivable	9			4			Investment income receivable	2		2
Premiums and reinsurance receivable	(86		)	(95		)	Premiums and reinsurance receivable	(232)		(231)
Deferred policy acquisition costs	(31		)	(24		)	Deferred policy acquisition costs	(59)		(68)
Other assets	(11		)	(25		)	Other assets	(25)		(47)
Loss and loss expense reserves	59			(40		)	Loss and loss expense reserves	316		25
Life policy and investment contract reserves	27			22			Life policy and investment contract reserves	65		52
Unearned premiums	134			113			Unearned premiums	319		292
Other liabilities	(123		)	(93		)	Other liabilities	(51)		(8)
Current income tax receivable/payable	(3		)	120			Current income tax receivable/payable	(14)		67
Net cash provided by operating activities	167			200			Net cash provided by operating activities	614		476
Cash Flows From Investing Activities							Cash Flows From Investing Activities
Sale of fixed maturities	21			1			Sale of fixed maturities	87		52
Call or maturity of fixed maturities	321			269			Call or maturity of fixed maturities	563		625
Sale of equity securities	7			31			Sale of equity securities	222		142
Purchase of fixed maturities	(336		)	(289		)	Purchase of fixed maturities	(757)		(765)
Purchase of equity securities	(132		)	(26		)	Purchase of equity securities	(371)		(212)

Investment in finance receivables	(6		)	(8		)	Investment in finance receivables	(23)		(17)
Collection of finance receivables	7			7			Collection of finance receivables	15		13
Investment in building and equipment	(4		)	(5		)	Investment in building and equipment	(10)		(13)
Change in other invested assets, net	(14		)	(36		)	Change in other invested assets, net	32		(41)
Net cash used in investing activities	(136		)	(56		)	Net cash used in investing activities	(242)		(216)
Cash Flows From Financing Activities							Cash Flows From Financing Activities
Payment of cash dividends to shareholders	(90		)	(85		)	Payment of cash dividends to shareholders	(185)		(175)
Shares acquired - share repurchase authorization	(256		)	—			Shares acquired - share repurchase authorization	(256)		—
Changes in note payable	75			—			Changes in note payable	83		5
Proceeds from stock options exercised	4			3			Proceeds from stock options exercised	4		7
Contract holders' funds deposited	21			19			Contract holders' funds deposited	44		44
Contract holders' funds withdrawn	(40		)	(44		)	Contract holders' funds withdrawn	(83)		(93)
Other	(26		)	(19		)	Other	(40)		(29)
Net cash used in financing activities	(312		)	(126		)	Net cash used in financing activities	(433)		(241)
Net change in cash and cash equivalents	(281		)	18			Net change in cash and cash equivalents	(61)		19
Cash and cash equivalents at beginning of year	767			784			Cash and cash equivalents at beginning of year	767		784
Cash and cash equivalents at end of period	$	486		$	802		Cash and cash equivalents at end of period	$	706	$	803
Supplemental Disclosures of Cash Flow Information:							Supplemental Disclosures of Cash Flow Information:
Interest paid							Interest paid	$	27	$	27
Income taxes paid	—			94			Income taxes paid	31		13
Noncash Activities							Noncash Activities

Equipment acquired under finance lease obligations	$	6		$	3		Equipment acquired under finance lease obligations	$	9	$	7
Cashless exercise of stock options	3			5			Cashless exercise of stock options	3		7
Other assets and other liabilities	77			23			Other assets and other liabilities	48		28

Accompanying Notes are an integral part of these Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements.

Cincinnati Financial Corporation Second-Quarter 2020 10-Q

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NOTES TO CONDENSED CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS (UNAUDITED)

NOTE 1 — Accounting Policies

The condensed consolidated financial statements include the accounts of Cincinnati Financial Corporation and its consolidated subsidiaries, each of which is wholly owned. These statements are presented in conformity with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America (GAAP). All intercompany balances and transactions have been eliminated in consolidation.

The preparation of financial statements in conformity with GAAP requires us to make estimates and assumptions that affect amounts reported in the financial statements and accompanying notes. Our actual results could differ from those estimates. Certain financial information that is normally included in annual financial statements prepared in accordance with GAAP, but that is not required for interim reporting purposes, has been condensed or omitted.

Our ~~March 31,~~June 30, 2020,, condensed consolidated financial statements are unaudited. We believe that we have made all adjustments, consisting only of normal recurring accruals, that are necessary for fair presentation. These condensed consolidated financial statements should be read in conjunction with our consolidated financial statements included in our 2019 Annual Report on Form 10-K. The results of operations for interim periods do not necessarily indicate results to be expected for the full year.

The World Health Organization declared the 2019 novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2 or COVID-19) outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International Concern on January 30, 2020, and a pandemic on March 11, 2020. The pandemic outbreak has caused an economic downturn on a global scale, including continued temporary closures of some businesses and uncertainty surrounding future government and private company restrictions as many businesses attempt to resume operations. The pandemic, and ~~reduced consumer spending due~~unprecedented actions taken to ~~shelter-in-place and other governmental regulations, as well as~~contain the virus, has also continued to cause significant market disruption and volatility. Through the first six months of 2020, the company estimated that pandemic-related incurred losses and expenses totaled $71 million. The company continues to monitor the impact of the pandemic as it unfolds. The company cannot ~~at this time,~~ predict the impact the pandemic will have on its future consolidated financial position, cash flows or results of operations, however the impact could be material. ~~The company's future financial results and operations depends in part on the duration and severity of the pandemic and what actions are taken to mitigate the outbreak.~~

Adopted Accounting Updates

ASU 2016-13, Financial Instruments - Credit Losses (Topic 326): Measurement of Credit Losses on Financial Instruments

In June 2016, the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) issued Accounting Standards Update (ASU) 2016-13, Financial Instruments - Credit Losses (Topic 326): Measurement of Credit Losses on Financial Instruments, as well as additional implementation related ASU's in 2018, 2019 and 2020. These ASU’s amend previous guidance on the impairment of financial instruments by adding an impairment model that allows an entity to recognize expected credit losses as an allowance rather than impairing as they are incurred. The new guidance is intended to reduce complexity of credit impairment models and result in a more timely recognition of expected credit losses. The standards require the company to consider all relevant information at the time of estimating the expected credit loss, including past events, the current environment, and reasonable and supportable forecasts over the life of the asset.

These ASU's also eliminated the other-than-temporary impairment model for available for sale fixed-maturity securities by requiring that credit related impairments be recognized through an allowance account. Changes in the allowance account are recorded in the period of change as a credit loss expense or reversal of credit loss expense. The measurement of credit losses is not impacted, except that credit losses recognized are limited to the amount by which fair value is below amortized cost and that the length of time that a security has been below amortized cost cannot be considered. These ASU's retain the guidance requiring that impaired securities intended to be sold have their amortized cost basis written down to fair value through net income.

The company adopted these ASU's on January 1, 2020, and applied them on a modified retrospective basis. As a result of this adoption, an after-tax cumulative effect decrease of $2 million was made to retained earnings representing an increase to the overall valuation allowances for financial instruments measured at amortized cost. These ASU's will be applied to available for sale fixed-maturity securities prospectively with no adjustments to the amortized cost basis of securities for which an other-than-temporary impairment had been previously recognized. The company has elected not to measure expected credit losses for accrued interest receivables related to its finance receivables and fixed-maturity securities.

Cincinnati Financial Corporation Second-Quarter 2020 10-Q

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Pending Accounting Updates

ASU 2018-12, Financial Services - Insurance (Topic 944): Targeted Improvements to the Accounting for Long-Duration Contracts

In August 2018, the FASB issued ASU 2018-12, Financial Services - Insurance (Topic 944): Targeted Improvements to the Accounting for Long-Duration Contracts. ASU 2018-12 is intended to improve the timeliness of recognizing changes in the liability for future policy benefits and modify the rate used to discount future cash flows. The ASU will simplify and improve the accounting for certain market-based options or guarantees associated with deposit or account balance contracts, simplify amortization of deferred acquisition costs while improving and expanding required disclosures. In November 2019, the FASB issued ASU 2019-09, Financial Services - Insurance (Topic 944): Effective Date. ASU 2019-09 ~~delays~~delayed the effective date of ASU 2018-12 by one year to interim and annual reporting periods beginning after December 15, 2021. In July 2020, the FASB issued a proposed ASU that would further delay the effective date of ASU 2018-12 by an additional year to interim and annual reporting periods beginning after December 15, 2022. These ASU's have not yet been adopted. Management is currently evaluating the impact on our company's consolidated financial position, cash flows and results of operations.

Cincinnati Financial Corporation Second-Quarter 2020 10-Q

Page 9

NOTE 2 – Investments

The following table provides amortized cost, gross unrealized gains, gross unrealized losses and fair value for our fixed-maturity securities:

(Dollars in millions)
Amortized
cost
Gross unrealized Fair value
At March 31, 2020 gains losses
Fixed maturity securities:

Corporate $ 6,134
$ 180
$ 181
$ 6,133
States, municipalities and political subdivisions 4,445
272
6
4,711
Commercial mortgage-backed 290
2
8
284
United States government 96
6
—
102
Government-sponsored enterprises 86
1
—
87
Foreign government 23
—
—
23
Total $ 11,074
$ 461
$ 195
$ 11,340
At December 31, 2019

Fixed maturity securities:

Corporate $ 6,074
$ 332
$ 5
$ 6,401
States, municipalities and political subdivisions 4,477
252
1
4,728
Commercial mortgage-backed 290
11
—
301
United States government 102
2
—
104
Government-sponsored enterprises 137
—
1
136
Foreign government 28
—
—
28
Total $ 11,108
$ 597
$ 7
$ 11,698


(Dollars in millions)	Amortized cost		Gross unrealized								Fair value
At June 30, 2020					gains			losses
Fixed maturity securities:
Corporate	$	6,231	$	465		$	47		$	6,649
States, municipalities and political subdivisions	4,487		346			3			4,830
Commercial mortgage-backed	272		8			3			277
United States government	108		6			—			114
Foreign government	22		—			—			22
Government-sponsored enterprises	19		—			—			19

Total	$	11,139	$	825		$	53		$	11,911






At December 31, 2019
Fixed maturity securities:
Corporate	$	6,074	$	332		$	5		$	6,401
States, municipalities and political subdivisions	4,477		252			1			4,728
Commercial mortgage-backed	290		11			—			301
United States government	102		2			—			104
Foreign government	28		—			—			28
Government-sponsored enterprises	137		—			1			136






Total	$	11,108	$	597		$	7		$	11,698

The net unrealized investment gains in our fixed-maturity portfolio at ~~March 31,~~June 30, 2020, are primarily the result of the continued low interest rate environment that increased the fair value of our fixed-maturity portfolio. Our commercial mortgage-backed securities had an average rating of Aa1/~~AA+~~AA at ~~March 31,~~June 30, 2020 and December 31, 2019.

Cincinnati Financial Corporation Second-Quarter 2020 10-Q

Page 10

The table below provides fair values and gross unrealized losses by investment category and by the duration of the securities' continuous unrealized loss positions:


(Dollars in millions)	Less than 12 months						12 months or more						Total
At June 30, 2020	Fair value		Unrealized losses		Fair value		Unrealized losses		Fair value		Unrealized losses
Fixed maturity securities:
Corporate	$	782	$	46	$	33	$	1	$	815	$	47
States, municipalities and political subdivisions	54		2		3		1		57		3
Commercial mortgage-backed	47		3		—		—		47		3
United States government	6		—		—		—		6		—
Foreign government	14		—		—		—		14		—
Government-sponsored enterprises	—		—		—		—		—		—
Total	$	903	$	51	$	36	$	2	$	939	$	53





At December 31, 2019
Fixed maturity securities:
Corporate	$	199	$	2	$	118	$	3	$	317	$	5
States, municipalities and political subdivisions	98		1		10		—		108		1
Commercial mortgage-backed	6		—		—		—		6		—
United States government	—		—		4		—		4		—
Foreign government	11		—		—		—		11		—
Government-sponsored enterprises	26		1		51		—		77		1





Total	$	340	$	4	$	183	$	3	$	523	$	7

(Dollars in millions) Less than 12 months 12 months or more Total
At March 31, 2020
Fair
value

Unrealized
losses

Fair
value

Unrealized
losses

Fair
value

Unrealized
losses
Fixed maturity securities:

Corporate $ 2,168
$ 176
$ 52
$ 5
$ 2,220
$ 181
States, municipalities and political subdivisions 76
5
3
1
79
6
Commercial mortgage-backed 163
8
—
—
163
8
United States government —
—
—
—
—
—
Government-sponsored enterprises —
—
—
—
—
—
Foreign government 15
—
—
—
15
—
Total $ 2,422
$ 189
$ 55
$ 6
$ 2,477
$ 195
At December 31, 2019

Fixed maturity securities:

Corporate $ 199
$ 2
$ 118
$ 3
$ 317
$ 5
States, municipalities and political subdivisions 98
1
10
—
108
1
Commercial mortgage-backed 6
—
—
—
6
—
United States government —
—
4
—
4
—
Government-sponsored enterprises 26
1
51
—
77
1
Foreign government 11
—
—
—
11
—
Total $ 340
$ 4
$ 183
$ 3
$ 523
$ 7

Contractual maturity dates for fixed-maturities investments were:


(Dollars in millions)	Amortized cost		Fair value		% of fair value
At June 30, 2020
Maturity dates:
Due in one year or less	$	566	$	574	4.8	%
Due after one year through five years	3,187		3,354		28.2
Due after five years through ten years	3,811		4,081		34.3
Due after ten years	3,575		3,902		32.7
Total	$	11,139	$	11,911	100.0	%

(Dollars in millions)
Amortized
cost

Fair
value

% of fair
value
At March 31, 2020
Maturity dates:

Due in one year or less $ 502
$ 502
4.4 %
Due after one year through five years 3,132
3,137
27.7
Due after five years through ten years 3,833
3,874
34.2
Due after ten years 3,607
3,827
33.7
Total $ 11,074
$ 11,340
100.0 %

Actual maturities may differ from contractual maturities when there is a right to call or prepay obligations with or without call or prepayment penalties.

Cincinnati Financial Corporation Second-Quarter 2020 10-Q

Page 11

The following table provides investment income and investment gains and losses, net:

(Dollars in millions) Three months ended March 31,
2020 2019
Investment income:
Interest $ 112
$ 111
Dividends 53
46
Other 3
3
Total 168
160
Less investment expenses 3
3
Total $ 165
$ 157

Investment gains and losses, net:

Equity securities:

Investment gains and losses on securities sold, net $ (4 ) $ 4
Unrealized gains and losses on securities still held, net (1,649 ) 652
Subtotal (1,653 ) 656
Fixed maturities:

Gross realized gains 2
2
Write-down of impaired securities (77 ) —
Subtotal (75 ) 2

Other 3
5
Total $ (1,725 ) $ 663


(Dollars in millions)	Three months ended June 30,						Six months ended June 30,
	2020		2019		2020		2019
Investment income:
Interest	$	114	$	111	$	226	$	222
Dividends	53		50		106		96
Other	2		2		5		5
Total	169		163		337		323
Less investment expenses	3		3		6		6
Total	$	166	$	160	$	331	$	317

Investment gains and losses, net:
Equity securities:
Investment gains and losses on securities sold, net	$	24	$	11	$	17	$	23
Unrealized gains and losses on securities still held, net	1,044		355		(602)		999

Subtotal	1,068		366		(585)		1,022
Fixed maturities:
Gross realized gains	3		1		5		3
Gross realized losses	(3)		(2)		(3)		(2)
Write-down of impaired securities	—		—		(77)		—
Subtotal	—		(1)		(75)		1

Other	(8)		(1)		(5)		4

Total	$	1,060	$	364	$	(665)	$	1,027

The fair value of our common equities portfolio was ~~$6.017~~$7.082 billion and $7.518 billion at ~~March 31,~~June 30, 2020 and December 31, 2019, respectively. The ~~financial, information technology,~~financials, energy, industrials ~~energy~~ and consumer discretionary sectors experienced the most significant declines in fair value as our common equity portfolio has a similar sector distribution as the S&P 500 industry weightings. At ~~March 31,~~June 30, 2020, ~~Microsoft Corporation~~Apple Inc. (Nasdaq:~~MSFT)~~AAPL) was our largest single equity holding with a fair value of ~~$395~~$514 million, which was ~~6.6%~~7.3% of our publicly traded common equities portfolio and ~~2.3%~~2.7% of the total investment portfolio.

During the three and six months ended ~~March 31,~~June 30, 2020, there were 0 fixed-maturity securities with an allowance for credit ~~losses~~losses. During the three months ended June 30, 2020, there were 0 fixed-maturity securities intended to be sold and written down to fair value and during the six months ended June 30, 2020, there were 12 fixed-maturity securities from the energy, real estate, consumer goods and technology & electronics sectors which are intended to be sold and were written down to fair value. During the three and six months ended ~~March 31,~~June 30, 2019, there were 0 fixed-maturity securities other-than-temporarily impaired. There were 0 credit losses on fixed-maturity securities for which an allowance for credit losses has been recorded in other comprehensive income for the three months ended March 31, 2020. There were 0 credit losses on fixed-maturity securities for which a portion of other-than-temporary impairment (OTTI) has been recognized in other comprehensive income for the three months ended March 31, 2019.

At ~~March 31,~~June 30, 2020, ~~605~~242 fixed-maturity securities with a total unrealized loss of ~~$195~~$53 million were in an unrealized loss ~~position driven primarily by a market value decline of corporate bonds related to economic uncertainty from the pandemic impact.~~position. Of that total, 185 fixed-maturity securities from the leisure, retail, municipal, energy ~~services, financial services, leisure, real estate~~ and ~~retail~~transportation sectors had a fair value below 70% of amortized cost. At December 31, 2019, 38 fixed-maturity securities with a total unrealized loss of $3 million had been in an unrealized loss position for 12 months or more. Of that total, 0 fixed-maturity securities had fair values below 70% of amortized cost.

Cincinnati Financial Corporation Second-Quarter 2020 10-Q

Page 12

NOTE 3 – Fair Value Measurements

In accordance with accounting guidance for fair value measurements and disclosures, we categorized our financial instruments, based on the priority of the observable and market-based data for the valuation technique used, into a three-level fair value hierarchy. The fair value hierarchy gives the highest priority to quoted prices with readily available independent data in active markets for identical assets or liabilities (Level 1) and the lowest priority to unobservable market inputs (Level 3). When various inputs for measurement fall within different levels of the fair value hierarchy, the lowest observable input that has a significant impact on fair value measurement is used. Our valuation techniques have not changed from those used at December 31, 2019,, and ultimately management determines fair value. See our 2019 Annual Report on Form 10-K, Item 8, Note 3, Fair Value Measurements, Page 144, for information on characteristics and valuation techniques used in determining fair value.

Fair Value Disclosures for Assets

The following tables illustrate the fair value hierarchy for those assets measured at fair value on a recurring basis at ~~March 31,~~June 30, 2020, and December 31, ~~2019~~.2019. We do not have any liabilities carried at fair value.


(Dollars in millions)	Quoted prices in active markets for identical assets (Level 1)		Significant other observable inputs (Level 2)			Significant unobservable inputs (Level 3)			Total			(Dollars in millions)		Quoted prices in active markets for identical assets (Level 1)			Significant other observable inputs (Level 2)				Significant unobservable inputs (Level 3)			Total
At March 31, 2020
At June 30, 2020												At June 30, 2020		Quoted prices in active markets for identical assets (Level 1)			Significant other observable inputs (Level 2)				Significant unobservable inputs (Level 3)			Total
Fixed maturities, available for sale:																				Fixed maturities, available for sale:
Corporate	$	—		$	6,133		$	—		$	6,133		Corporate		$	—		$	6,649			$	—			$	6,649
States, municipalities and political subdivisions	—		4,711			—			4,711			States, municipalities and political subdivisions			—			4,830				—			4,830
Commercial mortgage-backed	—		284			—			284			Commercial mortgage-backed		—				277				—			277
United States government	102		—			—			102			United States government		114			—				—				114
Foreign government												Foreign government		—			22				—			22
Government-sponsored enterprises	—		87			—			87			Government-sponsored enterprises		—			19				—			19
Foreign government	—		23			—			23

Subtotal	102		11,238			—			11,340			Subtotal		114			11,797				—			11,911
Common equities	6,017		—			—			6,017			Common equities		7,082			—				—			7,082
Nonredeemable preferred equities	—		208			—			208			Nonredeemable preferred equities		—			235				—			235

Separate accounts taxable fixed maturities	—		845			—			845			Separate accounts taxable fixed maturities		—			889				—			889
Top Hat savings plan mutual funds and common equity (included in Other assets)	38		—			—			38			Top Hat savings plan mutual funds and common equity (included in Other assets)		40			—				—			40
Total	$	6,157	$	12,291		$	—		$	18,448		Total		$	7,236		$	12,921			$	—		$	20,157

At December 31, 2019												At December 31, 2019
Fixed maturities, available for sale:												Fixed maturities, available for sale:
Corporate	$	—	$	6,401		$	—		$	6,401		Corporate		$	—		$	6,401			$	—		$	6,401
States, municipalities and political subdivisions	—		4,728			—			4,728			States, municipalities and political subdivisions		—			4,728				—			4,728
Commercial mortgage-backed	—		301			—			301			Commercial mortgage-backed		—			301				—			301
United States government	104		—			—			104			United States government		104			—				—			104
Foreign government												Foreign government		—			28				—			28
Government-sponsored enterprises	—		136			—			136			Government-sponsored enterprises		—			136				—			136
Foreign government	—		28			—			28

Subtotal	104		11,594			—			11,698			Subtotal		104			11,594				—			11,698
Common equities	7,518		—			—			7,518			Common equities		7,518			—				—			7,518
Nonredeemable preferred equities	—		234			—			234			Nonredeemable preferred equities		—			234				—			234
Separate accounts taxable fixed maturities	—		855			—			855			Separate accounts taxable fixed maturities		—			855				—			855
Top Hat savings plan mutual funds and common equity (included in Other assets)	45		—			—			45			Top Hat savings plan mutual funds and common equity (included in Other assets)		45			—				—			45
Total	$	7,667	$	12,683		$	—		$	20,350		Total		$	7,667		$	12,683			$	—		$	20,350

Cincinnati Financial Corporation Second-Quarter 2020 10-Q

Page 13

We also held Level 1 cash and cash equivalents of ~~$486~~$706 million and $767 million at ~~March 31,~~June 30, 2020 and December 31, 2019, respectively. Level 3 assets reported at fair value in our condensed consolidated financial statements are not material, and therefore no further disclosures are provided.

Fair Value Disclosures for Assets and Liabilities Not Carried at Fair Value

The disclosures below are presented to provide information about the effects of current market conditions on financial instruments that are not reported at fair value in our condensed consolidated financial statements.

This table summarizes the book value and principal amounts of our long-term debt:

(Dollars in millions) Book value Principal amount
Interest
rate

Year of
issue
March 31, December 31, March 31, December 31,
2020 2019 2020 2019
6.900 % 1998 Senior debentures, due 2028 $ 27
$ 27
$ 28
$ 28
6.920 % 2005 Senior debentures, due 2028 391
391
391
391
6.125 % 2004 Senior notes, due 2034 370
370
374
374
Total
$ 788
$ 788
$ 793
$ 793


(Dollars in millions)						Book value						Principal amount
Interest rate		Year of issue		June 30,		December 31,		June 30,		December 31,
						2020		2019		2020		2019
6.900	%	1998	Senior debentures, due 2028	$	27	$	27	$	28	$	28
6.920	%	2005	Senior debentures, due 2028	391		391		391		391
6.125	%	2004	Senior notes, due 2034	370		370		374		374
Total				$	788	$	788	$	793	$	793

The following table shows fair values of our note payable and long-term debt:

(Dollars in millions)
Quoted prices in
active markets for
identical assets
(Level 1)
Significant other observable inputs (Level 2)
Significant
unobservable
inputs
(Level 3)
Total
At March 31, 2020
Note payable $ —
$ 114
$ —
$ 114
6.900% senior debentures, due 2028 —
35
—
35
6.920% senior debentures, due 2028 —
525
—
525
6.125% senior notes, due 2034 —
501
—
501
Total $ —
$ 1,175
$ —
$ 1,175

At December 31, 2019
Note payable $ —
$ 39
$ —
$ 39
6.900% senior debentures, due 2028 —
34
—
34
6.920% senior debentures, due 2028 —
506
—
506
6.125% senior notes, due 2034 —
512
—
512
Total $ —
$ 1,091
$ —
$ 1,091


(Dollars in millions)	Quoted prices in active markets for identical assets (Level 1)		Significant other observable inputs (Level 2)		Significant unobservable inputs (Level 3)		Total
At June 30, 2020
Note payable	$	—	$	122	$	—	$	122
6.900% senior debentures, due 2028	—		35		—		35
6.920% senior debentures, due 2028	—		513		—		513
6.125% senior notes, due 2034	—		524		—		524
Total	$	—	$	1,194	$	—	$	1,194

At December 31, 2019
Note payable	$	—	$	39	$	—	$	39
6.900% senior debentures, due 2028	—		34		—		34
6.920% senior debentures, due 2028	—		506		—		506
6.125% senior notes, due 2034	—		512		—		512
Total	$	—	$	1,091	$	—	$	1,091

Cincinnati Financial Corporation Second-Quarter 2020 10-Q

Page 14

The following table shows the fair value of our life policy loans included in other invested assets and the fair values of our deferred annuities and structured settlements included in life policy and investment contract reserves:

(Dollars in millions)
Quoted prices in
active markets for
identical assets
(Level 1)

Significant other
observable inputs (Level 2)

Significant
unobservable
inputs
(Level 3)
Total
At March 31, 2020
Life policy loans $ —
$ —
$ 50
$ 50

Deferred annuities —
—
752
752
Structured settlements —
201
—
201
Total $ —
$ 201
$ 752
$ 953

At December 31, 2019
Life policy loans $ —
$ —
$ 44
$ 44

Deferred annuities —
—
770
770
Structured settlements —
212
—
212
Total $ —
$ 212
$ 770
$ 982


(Dollars in millions)	Quoted prices in active markets for identical assets (Level 1)		Significant other observable inputs (Level 2)		Significant unobservable inputs (Level 3)		Total
At June 30, 2020
Life policy loans	$	—	$	—	$	51	$	51

Deferred annuities	—		—		805		805
Structured settlements	—		223		—		223
Total	$	—	$	223	$	805	$	1,028

At December 31, 2019
Life policy loans	$	—	$	—	$	44	$	44

Deferred annuities	—		—		770		770
Structured settlements	—		212		—		212
Total	$	—	$	212	$	770	$	982

Outstanding principal and interest for these life policy loans totaled $33 million and $32 million at

~~March 31,~~ June 30, 2020 and December 31, 2019,, respectively.

Recorded reserves for the deferred annuities were ~~$754~~$759 million and $760 million at ~~March 31,~~June 30, 2020 and December 31, 2019, respectively. Recorded reserves for the structured settlements were ~~$151~~$149 million and

$151 million at ~~March 31,~~June 30, 2020, and December 31, 2019, respectively.

Cincinnati Financial Corporation Second-Quarter 2020 10-Q

Page 15

NOTE 4 – Property Casualty Loss and Loss Expenses

This table summarizes activity for our consolidated property casualty loss and loss expense reserves:

(Dollars in millions) Three months ended March 31,
2020 2019
Gross loss and loss expense reserves, beginning of period $ 6,088
$ 5,646
Less reinsurance recoverable 342
238
Net loss and loss expense reserves, beginning of period 5,746
5,408

Net loss and loss expense reserves related to acquisition of Cincinnati Global at
February 28, 2019
—
246

Net incurred loss and loss expenses related to:

Current accident year 963
857
Prior accident years (33 ) (67 )
Total incurred 930
790
Net paid loss and loss expenses related to:

Current accident year 186
177
Prior accident years 631
647
Total paid 817
824
Net loss and loss expense reserves, end of period 5,859
5,620
Plus reinsurance recoverable 294
266
Gross loss and loss expense reserves, end of period $ 6,153
$ 5,886


(Dollars in millions)	Three months ended June 30,						Six months ended June 30,
	2020		2019		2020		2019
Gross loss and loss expense reserves, beginning of period	$	6,153	$	5,886	$	6,088	$	5,646
Less reinsurance recoverable	294		266		342		238
Net loss and loss expense reserves, beginning of period	5,859		5,620		5,746		5,408

Net loss and loss expense reserves related to acquisition of Cincinnati Global at February 28, 2019	—		—		—		246



Net incurred loss and loss expenses related to:
Current accident year	1,054		947		2,017		1,804
Prior accident years	(47)		(84)		(80)		(151)
Total incurred	1,007		863		1,937		1,653
Net paid loss and loss expenses related to:
Current accident year	369		361		555		538
Prior accident years	382		437		1,013		1,084
Total paid	751		798		1,568		1,622
Net loss and loss expense reserves, end of period	6,115		5,685		6,115		5,685
Plus reinsurance recoverable	294		269		294		269
Gross loss and loss expense reserves, end of period	$	6,409	$	5,954	$	6,409	$	5,954

We use actuarial methods, models and judgment to estimate, as of a financial statement date, the property casualty loss and loss expense reserves required to pay for and settle all outstanding insured claims, including incurred but not reported (IBNR) claims, as of that date. The actuarial estimate is subject to review and adjustment by an inter-departmental committee that includes actuarial, claims, underwriting, loss prevention and accounting management. This committee is familiar with relevant company and industry business, claims and underwriting trends, as well as general economic and legal trends that could affect future loss and loss expense payments. The amount we will actually have to pay for claims can be highly uncertain. This uncertainty, together with the size of our reserves, makes the loss and loss expense reserves our most significant estimate. The reserve for loss and loss expenses in the condensed consolidated balance sheets also included ~~$53~~$54 million at ~~March 31,~~June 30, 2020 and  ~~$58~~$55 million at ~~March 31,~~June 30, 2019, for certain life and health loss and loss expense reserves.

For the three months ended ~~March 31,~~June 30, 2020, we experienced ~~$33~~$47 million of favorable development on prior accident years, including $6$45 million of favorable development in commercial lines and $8 million of unfavorable development in excess and surplus lines. We had no net development in personal lines for the three months ended June 30, 2020. Within commercial lines, we recognized favorable reserve development of $21 million for the commercial casualty line and $19 million for the workers' compensation line due to reduced uncertainty of prior accident year loss and loss adjustment expense for these lines. Within personal lines, we recognized favorable reserve development of $7 million in personal auto and unfavorable reserve development of $7 million for the homeowner line of business.

For the six months ended June 30, 2020, we experienced $80 million of favorable development on prior accident years, including $51 million of favorable development in commercial lines, $28 million of favorable development in personal lines and $1$9 million of unfavorable development in excess and surplus lines. Within commercial lines, we recognized favorable reserve development of $7$26 million for both the workers' compensation line and ~~$5 million for~~ the commercial casualty line due to reduced uncertainty of prior accident year loss and loss adjustment expense for these lines. This was partially offset by unfavorable reserve development of $6$3 million for the commercial auto line. Within personal lines, we recognized favorable reserve development of ~~$18~~$20 million in personal auto and $11 million for the homeowner line of ~~business and $13 million in personal auto.~~business.

Cincinnati Financial Corporation Second-Quarter 2020 10-Q

Page 16

For the three months ended ~~March 31,~~June 30, 2019, we experienced ~~$67~~$84 million of favorable development on prior accident years, including ~~$62~~$58 million of favorable development in commercial lines, $3$14 million of ~~unfavorable~~favorable development in personal lines and $2$5 million of favorable development in excess and surplus lines. Within commercial lines, we recognized favorable reserve development of ~~$31~~$27 million for the workers' compensation line, $25 million for the commercial casualty line ~~$15 million for the workers' compensation line~~ and ~~$11~~$6 million for the commercial ~~auto~~property line due to reduced uncertainty of prior accident year loss and loss adjustment expense for these lines. Within personal lines, we recognized favorable reserve development of $15 million in personal auto.

For the six months ended June 30, 2019, we experienced $151 million of favorable development on prior accident years, including $120 million of favorable development in commercial lines, $11 million of favorable development in personal lines and $7 million of favorable development in excess and surplus lines. Within commercial lines, we recognized favorable reserve development of $56 million for the commercial casualty line, $42 million for the workers' compensation line, $9 million for the commercial auto line and $8 million for the commercial property line due to reduced uncertainty of prior accident year loss and loss adjustment expense for these lines. Within personal lines, we recognized favorable reserve development of $20 million in personal auto. We recognized unfavorable reserve development of ~~$11~~$15 million for the homeowner line of business due primarily to higher-than-anticipated loss development on known claims.

Cincinnati Financial Corporation Second-Quarter 2020 10-Q

Page 17

NOTE 5 – Life Policy and Investment Contract Reserves

We establish the reserves for traditional life insurance policies based on expected expenses, mortality, morbidity, withdrawal rates, timing of claim presentation and investment yields, including a provision for uncertainty. Once these assumptions are established, they generally are maintained throughout the lives of the contracts. We use both our own experience and industry experience, adjusted for historical trends, in arriving at our assumptions for expected mortality, morbidity and withdrawal rates as well as for expected expenses. We base our assumptions for expected investment income on our own experience adjusted for current and future economic conditions.

We establish reserves for the company's deferred annuity, universal life and structured settlement policies equal to the cumulative account balances, which include premium deposits plus credited interest less charges and withdrawals. Some of our universal life policies contain no-lapse guarantee provisions. For these policies, we establish a reserve in addition to the account balance, based on expected no-lapse guarantee benefits and expected policy assessments.

This table summarizes our life policy and investment contract reserves:


(Dollars in millions)	March 31, 2020		December 31, 2019		(Dollars in millions)	June 30, 2020		December 31, 2019
Life policy reserves:					Life policy reserves:
Ordinary/traditional life	$	1,245	$	1,226	Ordinary/traditional life	$	1,268	$	1,226
Other	50		50		Other	51		50
Subtotal	1,295		1,276		Subtotal	1,319		1,276
Investment contract reserves:					Investment contract reserves:
Deferred annuities	754		760		Deferred annuities	759		760
Universal life	653		640		Universal life	646		640
Structured settlements	151		151		Structured settlements	149		151
Other	8		8		Other	8		8
Subtotal	1,566		1,559		Subtotal	1,562		1,559
Total life policy and investment contract reserves	$	2,861	$	2,835	Total life policy and investment contract reserves	$	2,881	$	2,835

Cincinnati Financial Corporation Second-Quarter 2020 10-Q

Page 18

NOTE 6 – Deferred Policy Acquisition Costs

Expenses directly related to successfully acquired insurance policies – primarily commissions, premium taxes and underwriting costs – are deferred and amortized over the terms of the policies. We update our acquisition cost assumptions periodically to reflect actual experience, and we evaluate the costs for recoverability. The table below shows the deferred policy acquisition costs and asset reconciliation.


(Dollars in millions)	Three months ended June 30,						Six months ended June 30,
	2020		2019		2020		2019
Property casualty:
Deferred policy acquisition costs asset, beginning of period	$	536	$	485	$	512	$	464
Capitalized deferred policy acquisition costs	292		280		572		534
Amortized deferred policy acquisition costs	(261)		(239)		(517)		(472)
Deferred policy acquisition costs asset, end of period	$	567	$	526	$	567	$	526

Life:
Deferred policy acquisition costs asset, beginning of period	$	291	$	266	$	262	$	274
Capitalized deferred policy acquisition costs	14		15		29		31
Amortized deferred policy acquisition costs	(15)		(12)		(24)		(25)
Shadow deferred policy acquisition costs	(23)		(9)		—		(20)
Deferred policy acquisition costs asset, end of period	$	267	$	260	$	267	$	260

Consolidated:
Deferred policy acquisition costs asset, beginning of period	$	827	$	751	$	774	$	738
Capitalized deferred policy acquisition costs	306		295		601		565
Amortized deferred policy acquisition costs	(276)		(251)		(541)		(497)
Shadow deferred policy acquisition costs	(23)		(9)		—		(20)
Deferred policy acquisition costs asset, end of period	$	834	$	786	$	834	$	786

(Dollars in millions) Three months ended March 31,

2020 2019
Property casualty:
Deferred policy acquisition costs asset, beginning of period $ 512
$ 464
Capitalized deferred policy acquisition costs 280
254
Amortized deferred policy acquisition costs (256 ) (233 )
Deferred policy acquisition costs asset, end of period $ 536
$ 485

Life:
Deferred policy acquisition costs asset, beginning of period $ 262
$ 274
Capitalized deferred policy acquisition costs 15
16
Amortized deferred policy acquisition costs (9 ) (13 )
Shadow deferred policy acquisition costs 23
(11 )
Deferred policy acquisition costs asset, end of period $ 291
$ 266

Consolidated:
Deferred policy acquisition costs asset, beginning of period $ 774
$ 738
Capitalized deferred policy acquisition costs 295
270
Amortized deferred policy acquisition costs (265 ) (246 )
Shadow deferred policy acquisition costs 23
(11 )
Deferred policy acquisition costs asset, end of period $ 827
$ 751

No premium deficiencies were recorded in the condensed consolidated statements of income, as the sum of the anticipated loss and loss expenses, policyholder dividends and unamortized deferred acquisition expenses did not exceed the related unearned premiums and anticipated investment income.

Cincinnati Financial Corporation Second-Quarter 2020 10-Q

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NOTE 7 – Accumulated Other Comprehensive Income

Accumulated other comprehensive income (AOCI) includes changes in unrealized gains and losses on investments, changes in pension obligations and changes in life deferred acquisition costs, life policy reserves and other as follows:


(Dollars in millions)	Three months ended June 30,
	2020										2019
	Before tax		Income tax		Net		Before tax		Income tax		Net
Investments:
AOCI, beginning of period	$	266	$	55	$	211	$	288	$	59	$	229


OCI before investment gains and losses, net, recognized in net income	506		107		399		199		43		156
Investment gains and losses, net, recognized in net income	—		—		—		1		—		1
OCI	506		107		399		200		43		157
AOCI, end of period	$	772	$	162	$	610	$	488	$	102	$	386

Pension obligations:
AOCI, beginning of period	$	(8)	$	—	$	(8)	$	(16)	$	(2)	$	(14)
OCI excluding amortization recognized in net income	—		—		—		—		—		—
Amortization recognized in net income	1		—		1		1		—		1
OCI	1		—		1		1		—		1
AOCI, end of period	$	(7)	$	—	$	(7)	$	(15)	$	(2)	$	(13)

Life deferred acquisition costs, life policy reserves and other:
AOCI, beginning of period	$	1	$	—	$	1	$	(6)	$	(1)	$	(5)
OCI before investment gains and losses, net, recognized in net income	(9)		(2)		(7)		(6)		(1)		(5)
Investment gains and losses, net, recognized in net income	—		—		—		1		—		1
OCI	(9)		(2)		(7)		(5)		(1)		(4)
AOCI, end of period	$	(8)	$	(2)	$	(6)	$	(11)	$	(2)	$	(9)

Summary of AOCI:
AOCI, beginning of period	$	259	$	55	$	204	$	266	$	56	$	210


Investments OCI	506		107		399		200		43		157
Pension obligations OCI	1		—		1		1		—		1
Life deferred acquisition costs, life policy reserves and other OCI	(9)		(2)		(7)		(5)		(1)		(4)
Total OCI	498		105		393		196		42		154
AOCI, end of period	$	757	$	160	$	597	$	462	$	98	$	364

Cincinnati Financial Corporation Second-Quarter 2020 10-Q

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(Dollars in millions)	Three months ended March 31,																		(Dollars in millions)	Six months ended June 30,
	2020									2019										2020										2019
	Before tax			Income tax			Net			Before tax			Income tax			Net				Before tax		Income tax		Net		Before tax		Income tax		Net
Investments:																			Investments:
AOCI, beginning of period	$	590		$	123		$	467		$	46		$	9		$	37		AOCI, beginning of period	$	590	$	123	$	467	$	46	$	9	$	37

OCI before investment gains and losses, net, recognized in net income	(399		)	(84		)	(315		)	244			51			193			OCI before investment gains and losses, net, recognized in net income	107		23		84		443		93		350
Investment gains and losses, net, recognized in net income	75			16			59			(2		)	(1		)	(1		)	Investment gains and losses, net, recognized in net income	75		16		59		(1)		—		(1)
OCI	(324		)	(68		)	(256		)	242			50			192			OCI	182		39		143		442		93		349
AOCI, end of period	$	266		$	55		$	211		$	288		$	59		$	229		AOCI, end of period	$	772	$	162	$	610	$	488	$	102	$	386

Pension obligations:																			Pension obligations:
AOCI, beginning of period	$	(9	)	$	—		$	(9	)	$	(16	)	$	(2	)	$	(14	)	AOCI, beginning of period	$	(9)	$	—	$	(9)	$	(16)	$	(2)	$	(14)
OCI excluding amortization recognized in net income	—			—			—			—			—			—			OCI excluding amortization recognized in net income	—		—		—		—		—		—
Amortization recognized in net income	1			—			1			—			—			—			Amortization recognized in net income	2		—		2		1		—		1
OCI	1			—			1			—			—			—			OCI	2		—		2		1		—		1
AOCI, end of period	$	(8	)	$	—		$	(8	)	$	(16	)	$	(2	)	$	(14	)	AOCI, end of period	$	(7)	$	—	$	(7)	$	(15)	$	(2)	$	(13)

Life deferred acquisition costs, life policy reserves and other:																			Life deferred acquisition costs, life policy reserves and other:
AOCI, beginning of period	$	(13	)	$	(3	)	$	(10	)	$	(1	)	$	—		$	(1	)	AOCI, beginning of period	$	(13)	$	(3)	$	(10)	$	(1)	$	—	$	(1)
OCI before investment gains and losses, net, recognized in net income	14			3			11			—			—			—			OCI before investment gains and losses, net, recognized in net income	5		1		4		(6)		(1)		(5)
Investment gains and losses, net, recognized in net income	—			—			—			(5		)	(1		)	(4		)	Investment gains and losses, net, recognized in net income	—		—		—		(4)		(1)		(3)
OCI	14			3			11			(5		)	(1		)	(4		)	OCI	5		1		4		(10)		(2)		(8)
AOCI, end of period	$	1		$	—		$	1		$	(6	)	$	(1	)	$	(5	)	AOCI, end of period	$	(8)	$	(2)	$	(6)	$	(11)	$	(2)	$	(9)

Summary of AOCI:																			Summary of AOCI:
AOCI, beginning of period	$	568		$	120		$	448		$	29		$	7		$	22		AOCI, beginning of period	$	568	$	120	$	448	$	29	$	7	$	22

Investments OCI	(324		)	(68		)	(256		)	242			50			192			Investments OCI	182		39		143		442		93		349
Pension obligations OCI	1			—			1			—			—			—			Pension obligations OCI	2		—		2		1		—		1
Life deferred acquisition costs, life policy reserves and other OCI	14			3			11			(5		)	(1		)	(4		)	Life deferred acquisition costs, life policy reserves and other OCI	5		1		4		(10)		(2)		(8)
Total OCI	(309		)	(65		)	(244		)	237			49			188			Total OCI	189		40		149		433		91		342
AOCI, end of period	$	259		$	55		$	204		$	266		$	56		$	210		AOCI, end of period	$	757	$	160	$	597	$	462	$	98	$	364

Investment gains and losses, net, and life deferred acquisition costs, life policy reserves and other investment gains and losses, net, are recorded in the investment gains and losses, net, line item in the condensed consolidated statements of income. Amortization on pension obligations is recorded in the insurance losses and contract holders' benefits and underwriting, acquisition and insurance expenses line items in the condensed consolidated statements of income.

Cincinnati Financial Corporation Second-Quarter 2020 10-Q

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NOTE 8 – Reinsurance

Primary components of our property casualty reinsurance assumed operations include involuntary and voluntary assumed risks as well as contracts from Cincinnati Re^®, our reinsurance assumed operations. Primary components of our ceded reinsurance include a property per risk treaty, property excess treaty, casualty per occurrence treaty, casualty excess treaty, property catastrophe treaty and retrocessions on our reinsurance assumed operations. Management's decisions about the appropriate level of risk retention are affected by various factors, including changes in our underwriting practices, capacity to retain risks and reinsurance market conditions.

The table below summarizes our consolidated property casualty insurance net written premiums, earned premiums and incurred loss and loss expenses:


(Dollars in millions)	Three months ended June 30,						Six months ended June 30,
	2020		2019		2020		2019
Direct written premiums	$	1,539	$	1,472	$	2,997	$	2,807
Assumed written premiums	101		75		212		162
Ceded written premiums	(81)		(71)		(132)		(112)
Net written premiums	$	1,559	$	1,476	$	3,077	$	2,857

Direct earned premiums	$	1,388	$	1,319	$	2,759	$	2,585
Assumed earned premiums	63		50		129		93
Ceded earned premiums	(48)		(52)		(96)		(94)
Earned premiums	$	1,403	$	1,317	$	2,792	$	2,584

Direct incurred loss and loss expenses	$	976	$	866	$	1,876	$	1,653
Assumed incurred loss and loss expenses	45		25		79		50
Ceded incurred loss and loss expenses	(14)		(28)		(18)		(50)
Incurred loss and loss expenses	$	1,007	$	863	$	1,937	$	1,653

(Dollars in millions) Three months ended March 31,
2020 2019
Direct written premiums $ 1,458
$ 1,335
Assumed written premiums 111
87
Ceded written premiums (51 ) (41 )
Net written premiums $ 1,518
$ 1,381

Direct earned premiums $ 1,371
$ 1,266
Assumed earned premiums 66
43
Ceded earned premiums (48 ) (42 )
Earned premiums $ 1,389
$ 1,267

Direct incurred loss and loss expenses $ 900
$ 787
Assumed incurred loss and loss expenses 34
25
Ceded incurred loss and loss expenses (4 ) (22 )
Incurred loss and loss expenses $ 930
$ 790

Our life insurance company purchases reinsurance for protection of a portion of the risks that are written. Primary components of our life reinsurance program include individual mortality coverage, aggregate catastrophe and accidental death coverage in excess of certain deductibles.

The table below summarizes our consolidated life insurance earned premiums and contract holders' benefits incurred:

(Dollars in millions) Three months ended March 31,
2020 2019
Direct earned premiums $ 85
$ 83
Ceded earned premiums (18 ) (17 )
Earned premiums $ 67
$ 66

Direct contract holders' benefits incurred 85
85
Ceded contract holders' benefits incurred (12 ) (15 )
Contract holders' benefits incurred $ 73
$ 70


(Dollars in millions)	Three months ended June 30,						Six months ended June 30,
	2020		2019		2020		2019
Direct earned premiums	$	98	$	86	$	183	$	169

Ceded earned premiums	(19)		(19)		(37)		(36)
Earned premiums	$	79	$	67	$	146	$	133

Direct contract holders' benefits incurred	100		87		185		172

Ceded contract holders' benefits incurred	(21)		(14)		(33)		(29)
Contract holders' benefits incurred	$	79	$	73	$	152	$	143

The ceded benefits incurred can vary depending on the type of life insurance policy held and the year the policy was issued.

Cincinnati Financial Corporation Second-Quarter 2020 10-Q

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NOTE 9 – Income Taxes

The differences between the 21%21% statutory federal income tax rate and our effective income tax rate were as follows:

(Dollars in millions) Three months ended March 31,
2020 2019
Tax at statutory rate: $ (331 ) 21.0 % $ 182
21.0 %
Increase (decrease) resulting from:

Tax-exempt income from municipal bonds (5 ) 0.3
(5 ) (0.6 )
Dividend received exclusion (4 ) 0.3
(4 ) (0.5 )
Other (10 ) 0.6
(1 ) (0.1 )
Provision (benefit) for income taxes $ (350 ) 22.2 % $ 172
19.8 %


(Dollars in millions)	Three months ended June 30,														Six months ended June 30,
	2020						2019						2020				2019
Tax at statutory rate:	$	240	21.0	%	$	111	21.0	%	$	(91)	21.0	%	$	293	21.0	%
Increase (decrease) resulting from:
Tax-exempt income from municipal bonds	(5)		(0.4)		(4)		(0.8)		(10)		2.3		(9)		(0.6)
Dividend received exclusion	(4)		(0.3)		(4)		(0.8)		(8)		1.9		(8)		(0.6)

Other	5		0.3		(1)		(0.2)		(5)		1.3		(2)		(0.2)
Provision (benefit) for income taxes	$	236	20.6	%	$	102	19.2	%	$	(114)	26.5	%	$	274	19.6	%

The provision for federal income taxes is based upon filing a consolidated income tax return for the company and its domestic subsidiaries.

We continue to believe that after considering all positive and negative evidence of taxable income in the carryback and carryforward periods as permitted by law, ~~we believe~~ it is more likely than not that all of the deferred tax assets on our U.S. domestic operations will be realized. As a result, we have 0 valuation allowance for our U.S. domestic operations as of ~~March 31,~~June 30, 2020 and December 31, 2019. As more fully discussed below, we do carry a valuation allowance on the deferred tax assets related to Cincinnati Global.

During the first quarter of 2020, the IRS notified us they would be expanding their audit of tax year 2017 to include the tax year ended December 31, 2018.

In response to the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2 or COVID-19), as more fully discussed in Note 1, Accounting Policies, the Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security Act (CARES Act) was signed into law on March 27, 2020. We ~~are currently evaluating~~have evaluated the CARES Act ~~but at the present time,~~and believe any impact to our financial statements will be immaterial.

Unrecognized Tax Benefits

As of ~~March 31,~~June 30, 2020 and December 31, 2019, we had a gross unrecognized tax benefit of $34 million. There were no changes to this amount during the first ~~quarter~~half of 2020. It is reasonably possible that within the next 12 months, our unrecognized tax benefit could change when the IRS completes its examination of the tax year ended December 31, 2018.

Cincinnati Global

As a result of operations for the three and six months ended ~~March 31,~~June 30, 2020, Cincinnati Global had a $6$4 million ~~reduction~~increase and $2 million decrease to their net deferred tax assets with an offsetting $6$4 million ~~reduction~~increase and $2 million decrease to their valuation allowance. As of ~~March 31,~~June 30, 2020, Cincinnati Global had a net deferred tax asset of  ~~$35~~$39 million and an offsetting valuation allowance of ~~$35~~$39 million.

Deferred tax assets are reduced by a valuation allowance when management believes it is more likely than not that some, or all, of the deferred tax assets will not be realized. After considering all positive and negative evidence related to the Cincinnati Global operations, we continue to believe it is appropriate to carry a valuation allowance as of ~~March 31,~~June 30, 2020.

As of ~~March 31,~~June 30, 2020, Cincinnati Global had operating loss carryforwards of ~~$118~~$140 million in the United Kingdom. These Cincinnati Global losses can only be utilized within ~~the~~ Cincinnati Global ~~group~~ in the United Kingdom and cannot offset the income of our ~~CFC group~~ domestic operations in the United States. Other than the Cincinnati Global loss carryforwards, we had no other operating or capital loss carryforwards as of ~~March 31,~~June 30, 2020.

Cincinnati Financial Corporation Second-Quarter 2020 10-Q

Page 23

NOTE 10 – Net Income (Loss) Per Common Share

Basic earnings per share are computed based on the weighted average number of common shares outstanding. Diluted earnings per share are computed based on the weighted average number of common and dilutive potential common shares outstanding using the treasury stock method. The table shows calculations for basic and diluted earnings per share:


(In millions, except per share data)	Three months ended June 30,									Six months ended June 30,
			2020			2019			2020			2019
Numerator:
Net income (loss)—basic and diluted	$	909		$	428		$	(317)		$	1,123
Denominator:
Basic weighted-average common shares outstanding	160.8			163.3			161.5			163.1
Effect of share-based awards:
Stock options	0.3			1.2			—			1.1
Nonvested shares	0.4			0.7			—			0.7
Diluted weighted-average shares	161.5			165.2			161.5			164.9
Earnings (loss) per share:
Basic	$	5.65		$	2.62		$	(1.96)		$	6.89
Diluted	$	5.63		$	2.59		$	(1.96)		$	6.81
Number of anti-dilutive share-based awards	2.7			0.4			2.6			0.7

(In millions, except per share data) Three months ended March 31,
2020 2019
Numerator:

Net income (loss)—basic and diluted $ (1,226 ) $ 695
Denominator:

Basic weighted-average common shares outstanding 162.2
163.0
Effect of share-based awards:

Stock options —
0.9
Nonvested shares —
0.7
Diluted weighted-average shares 162.2
164.6
Earnings (loss) per share:

Basic $ (7.56 ) $ 4.27
Diluted $ (7.56 ) $ 4.22
Number of anti-dilutive share-based awards 2.5
0.7

~~In accordance with ASC 260,~~ ~~Earnings per Share, the assumed exercise of share-based awards in 2020 were excluded from the computation of diluted loss per share.~~ See our 2019 Annual Report on Form 10-K, Item 8, Note 17, Share-Based Associate Compensation Plans, Page 176, for information about share-based awards. The above table shows the number of anti-dilutive share-based awards for the three and six months ended ~~March 31,~~June 30, 2020 and 2019. These share-based awards were not included in the computation of net income (loss) per common share (diluted) because their exercise would have anti-dilutive effects. As a result of the net loss for the six months ended June 30, 2020, the assumed exercise of share-based awards were excluded from the computation of diluted loss per share for that period.

NOTE 11 – Employee Retirement Benefits

The following summarizes the components of net periodic benefit cost for our qualified and supplemental pension plans:


(Dollars in millions)	Three months ended June 30,						Six months ended June 30,
	2020		2019		2020		2019
Service cost	$	3	$	2	$	5	$	4
Non-service costs (benefit):
Interest cost	3		3		6		6
Expected return on plan assets	(6)		(5)		(11)		(10)
Amortization of actuarial loss and prior service cost	1		1		2		1
Other	—		—		—		1
Total non-service benefit	(2)		(1)		(3)		(2)
Net periodic benefit cost	$	1	$	1	$	2	$	2

(Dollars in millions) Three months ended March 31,
2020 2019
Service cost $ 2
$ 2
Non-service costs (benefit):
Interest cost 3
3
Expected return on plan assets (5 ) (5 )
Amortization of actuarial loss and prior service cost 1
—
Other —
1
Total non-service benefit (1 ) (1 )
Net periodic benefit cost $ 1
$ 1

See our 2019 Annual Report on Form 10-K, Item 8, Note 13, Employee Retirement Benefits, Page 170, for information on our retirement benefits. Service costs and non-service costs (benefit) are allocated in the same proportion primarily to the underwriting, acquisition and insurance expenses line item with the remainder allocated to the insurance losses and contract holders' benefits line item on the condensed consolidated statements of income for both 2020 and 2019.

Cincinnati Financial Corporation Second-Quarter 2020 10-Q

Page 24

We made matching contributions totaling ~~$8 million and $5~~$4 million to our 401(k) and Top Hat savings plans during both the second quarters of 2020 and 2019 and contributions of $12 million and $9 million for the first ~~quarter~~half of 2020 and 2019, respectively.

We made 0 contributions to our qualified pension plan during the first ~~three~~six months of 2020.

NOTE 12 – Commitments and Contingent Liabilities

In the ordinary course of conducting business, the company and its subsidiaries are named as defendants in various legal proceedings. Most of these proceedings are claims litigation involving the company's insurance subsidiaries in which the company is either defending or providing indemnity for third-party claims brought against insureds or litigating first-party coverage claims. The company accounts for such activity through the establishment of unpaid loss and loss expense reserves. We believe that the ultimate liability, if any, with respect to such ordinary-course claims litigation, after consideration of provisions made for potential losses and costs of defense, is immaterial to our consolidated financial condition, results of operations and cash flows. Future court decisions and interpretations, as well as future changes, if any, in legislation could create uncertainties and additional liabilities may arise for amounts in excess of the company's current insurance reserves.

The company and its subsidiaries also are occasionally involved in other legal and regulatory proceedings, some of which assert claims for substantial amounts. These actions include, among others, putative class actions seeking certification of a state or national class. Such proceedings have alleged, for example, breach of an alleged duty to search national databases to ascertain unreported deaths of insureds under life insurance policies. The company's insurance subsidiaries also are occasionally parties to individual actions in which extra-contractual damages, punitive damages or penalties are sought, such as claims alleging bad faith handling of insurance claims or writing unauthorized coverage or claims alleging discrimination by former or current associates.

On a quarterly basis, we review these outstanding matters. Under current accounting guidance, we establish accruals when it is probable that a loss has been incurred and we can reasonably estimate its potential exposure. The company accounts for such probable and estimable losses, if any, through the establishment of legal expense reserves. Based on our quarterly review, we believe that our accruals for probable and estimable losses are reasonable and that the amounts accrued do not have a material effect on our consolidated financial condition or results of operations. However, if any one or more of these matters results in a judgment against us or settlement for an amount that is significantly greater than the amount accrued, the resulting liability could have a material effect on the company's consolidated results of operations or cash flows. Based on our most recent review, our estimate for any other matters for which the risk of loss is not probable, but more than remote, is immaterial.

NOTE 13 – Segment Information

We operate primarily in 2 industries, property casualty insurance and life insurance. Our chief operating decision maker regularly reviews our reporting segments to make decisions about allocating resources and assessing performance. Our reporting segments are:

•Commercial lines insurance

•Personal lines insurance

•Excess and surplus lines insurance

•Life insurance

~~Investments~~

•Investments

We report as Other the noninvestment operations of the parent company and its noninsurer subsidiary, CFC Investment Company. We also report as Other the underwriting results of Cincinnati Re, our reinsurance assumed operation, and Cincinnati Global, our London-based global specialty underwriter. See our 2019 Annual Report on Form 10-K, Item 8, Note 18, Segment Information, Page 179, for a description of revenue, income or loss before income taxes and identifiable assets for each of the 5 segments.

5 ~~segments.~~

Cincinnati Financial Corporation Second-Quarter 2020 10-Q

Page 25

Segment information is summarized in the following table:


(Dollars in millions)	Three months ended June 30,						Six months ended June 30,
	2020		2019		2020		2019
Revenues:
Commercial lines insurance
Commercial casualty	$	289	$	277	$	577	$	545
Commercial property	254		234		504		468
Commercial auto	189		175		374		345
Workers' compensation	68		74		143		151
Other commercial	70		63		135		124
Commercial lines insurance premiums	870		823		1,733		1,633
Fee revenues	1		1		2		2
Total commercial lines insurance	871		824		1,735		1,635

Personal lines insurance
Personal auto	154		155		308		310
Homeowner	163		149		322		296
Other personal	47		44		93		86
Personal lines insurance premiums	364		348		723		692
Fee revenues	1		1		2		2
Total personal lines insurance	365		349		725		694

Excess and surplus lines insurance	78		67		156		130
Fee revenues	—		—		1		1
Total excess and surplus lines insurance	78		67		157		131

Life insurance premiums	79		67		146		133
Fee revenues	1		1		1		2
Total life insurance	80		68		147		135

Investments
Investment income, net of expenses	166		160		331		317
Investment gains and losses, net	1,060		364		(665)		1,027
Total investment revenue	1,226		524		(334)		1,344

Other
Premiums	91		79		180		129

Other	3		2		5		4
Total other revenues	94		81		185		133
Total revenues	$	2,714	$	1,913	$	2,615	$	4,072

Income (loss) before income taxes:
Insurance underwriting results
Commercial lines insurance	$	8	$	12	$	(12)	$	88
Personal lines insurance	(43)		5		(22)		1
Excess and surplus lines insurance	(1)		17		8		28
Life insurance	1		(2)		3		(3)
Investments	1,201		499		(385)		1,295
Other	(21)		(1)		(23)		(12)
Total income (loss) before income taxes	$	1,145	$	530	$	(431)	$	1,397


Identifiable assets:	June 30, 2020		December 31, 2019
Property casualty insurance	$	3,751	$	3,437
Life insurance	1,570		1,516
Investments	19,375		19,583
Other	754		872
Total	$	25,450	$	25,408

Cincinnati Financial Corporation Second-Quarter 2020 10-Q

Page 26

(Dollars in millions) Three months ended March 31,
2020 2019
Revenues:

Commercial lines insurance

Commercial casualty $ 289
$ 268
Commercial property 249
234
Commercial auto 185
170
Workers' compensation 75
77
Other commercial 65
61
Commercial lines insurance premiums 863
810
Fee revenues 1
1
Total commercial lines insurance 864
811

Personal lines insurance

Personal auto 154
155
Homeowner 159
147
Other personal 46
42
Personal lines insurance premiums 359
344
Fee revenues 1
1
Total personal lines insurance 360
345

Excess and surplus lines insurance 78
63
Fee revenues 1
1
Total excess and surplus lines insurance 79
64

Life insurance premiums 67
66
Fee revenues —
1
Total life insurance 67
67

Investments
Investment income, net of expenses 165
157
Investment gains and losses, net (1,725 ) 663
Total investment revenue (1,560 ) 820

Other
Premiums 89
50
Other 2
2
Total other revenues 91
52
Total revenues $ (99 ) $ 2,159

Income (loss) before income taxes:

Insurance underwriting results

Commercial lines insurance $ (20 ) $ 76
Personal lines insurance 21
(4 )
Excess and surplus lines insurance 9
11
Life insurance 2
(1 )
Investments (1,586 ) 796
Other (2 ) (11 )
Total income (loss) before income taxes $ (1,576 ) $ 867

Identifiable assets: March 31,
2020 December 31,
2019
Property casualty insurance $ 3,444
$ 3,437
Life insurance 1,517
1,516
Investments 17,699
19,583
Other 707
872
Total $ 23,367
$ 25,408

Item 2. Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and

Results of Operations

The following discussion highlights significant factors influencing the condensed consolidated results of operations and financial position of Cincinnati Financial Corporation. It should be read in conjunction with the consolidated financial statements and related notes included in our 2019 Annual Report on Form 10-K. Unless otherwise noted, the industry data is prepared by A.M. Best Co., a leading insurance industry statistical, analytical and financial strength rating organization. Information from A.M. Best is presented on a statutory basis for insurance company regulation in the United States of America. When we provide our results on a comparable statutory basis, we label it as such; all other company data is presented in accordance with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America (GAAP).

We present per share data on a diluted basis unless otherwise noted, adjusting those amounts for all stock splits and dividends. Dollar amounts are rounded to millions; calculations of percent changes are based on dollar amounts rounded to the nearest million. Certain percentage changes are identified as not meaningful (nm).

SAFE HARBOR STATEMENT

This is our “Safe Harbor” statement under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Our business is subject to certain risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those suggested by the forward-looking statements in this report. Some of those risks and uncertainties are discussed in our 2019 Annual Report on Form 10-K, Item 1A, Risk Factors, Page 35.

Factors that could cause or contribute to such differences include, but are not limited to:

•Effects of the COVID-19 pandemic that could affect results for reasons such as:


◦	~~Securities market disruption or volatility and related effects such as decreased economic activity that affect the company’s investment portfolio and book value~~


◦	~~An unusually high level of claims in our insurance or reinsurance operations that increase litigation-related expenses~~


◦	An unusually high level of insurance losses, including risk of legislation or court decisions extending business interruption insurance to require coverage when there was no direct physical damage or loss to property


◦	Decreased premium revenue and cash flow from disruption to our distribution channel of independent agents, consumer self-isolation, travel limitations, business restrictions and decreased economic activity


◦	~~Inability of our workforce to perform necessary business functions~~

◦Securities market disruption or volatility and related effects such as decreased economic activity that affect the company’s investment portfolio and book value

◦An unusually high level of claims in our insurance or reinsurance operations that increase litigation-related expenses

◦An unusually high level of insurance losses, including risk of legislation or court decisions extending business interruption insurance to require coverage when there was no direct physical damage or loss to property

◦Decreased premium revenue and cash flow from disruption to our distribution channel of independent agents, consumer self-isolation, travel limitations, business restrictions and decreased economic activity

◦Inability of our workforce, agencies or vendors to perform necessary business functions

•Unusually high levels of catastrophe losses due to risk concentrations, changes in weather patterns, environmental events, terrorism incidents or other causes

•Increased frequency and/or severity of claims or development of claims that are unforeseen at the time of policy issuance

•Inadequate estimates, assumptions or reliance on third-party data used for critical accounting estimates

•Declines in overall stock market values negatively affecting the company’s equity portfolio and book value

•Prolonged low interest rate environment or other factors that limit the company’s ability to generate growth in investment income or interest rate fluctuations that result in declining values of fixed-maturity investments, including declines in accounts in which we hold bank-owned life insurance contract assets

•Domestic and global events resulting in capital market or credit market uncertainty, followed by prolonged periods of economic instability or recession, that lead to:


◦	~~Significant or prolonged decline in the fair value of a particular security or group of securities and impairment of the asset(s)~~


◦	~~Significant decline in investment income due to reduced or eliminated dividend payouts from a particular security or group of securities~~


◦	~~Significant rise in losses from surety and director and officer policies written for financial institutions or other insured entities~~

◦Significant or prolonged decline in the fair value of a particular security or group of securities and impairment of the asset(s)

◦Significant decline in investment income due to reduced or eliminated dividend payouts from a particular security or group of securities

◦Significant rise in losses from surety and director and officer policies written for financial institutions or other insured entities

•Our inability to integrate Cincinnati Global and its subsidiaries into our on-going operations, or disruptions to our on-going operations due to such integration

•Recession or other economic conditions resulting in lower demand for insurance products or increased payment delinquencies

•Difficulties with technology or data security breaches, including cyberattacks, that could negatively affect our ability to conduct business; disrupt our relationships with agents, policyholders and others; cause

Cincinnati Financial Corporation Second-Quarter 2020 10-Q

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reputational damage, mitigation expenses and data loss and expose us to liability under federal and state laws

•Disruption of the insurance market caused by technology innovations such as driverless cars that could decrease consumer demand for insurance products

•Delays, inadequate data developed internally or from third parties, or performance inadequacies from ongoing development and implementation of underwriting and pricing methods, including telematics and other usage-based insurance methods, or technology projects and enhancements expected to increase our pricing accuracy, underwriting profit and competitiveness

•Increased competition that could result in a significant reduction in the company’s premium volume

•Changing consumer insurance-buying habits and consolidation of independent insurance agencies that could alter our competitive advantages

•Inability to obtain adequate ceded reinsurance on acceptable terms, amount of reinsurance coverage purchased, financial strength of reinsurers and the potential for nonpayment or delay in payment by reinsurers

•Inability to defer policy acquisition costs for any business segment if pricing and loss trends would lead management to conclude that segment could not achieve sustainable profitability

•Inability of our subsidiaries to pay dividends consistent with current or past levels

•Events or conditions that could weaken or harm the company’s relationships with its independent agencies and hamper opportunities to add new agencies, resulting in limitations on the company’s opportunities for growth, such as:


◦	~~Downgrades of the company’s financial strength ratings~~


◦	~~Concerns that doing business with the company is too difficult~~


◦	~~Perceptions that the company’s level of service, particularly claims service, is no longer a distinguishing characteristic in the marketplace~~


◦	~~Inability or unwillingness to nimbly develop and introduce coverage product updates and innovations that our competitors offer and consumers expect to find in the marketplace~~

◦Downgrades of the company’s financial strength ratings

◦Concerns that doing business with the company is too difficult

◦Perceptions that the company’s level of service, particularly claims service, is no longer a distinguishing characteristic in the marketplace

◦Inability or unwillingness to nimbly develop and introduce coverage product updates and innovations that our competitors offer and consumers expect to find in the marketplace

•Actions of insurance departments, state attorneys general or other regulatory agencies, including a change to a federal system of regulation from a state-based system, that:


◦	~~Impose new obligations on us that increase our expenses or change the assumptions underlying our critical accounting estimates~~


◦	~~Place the insurance industry under greater regulatory scrutiny or result in new statutes, rules and regulations~~


◦	~~Restrict our ability to exit or reduce writings of unprofitable coverages or lines of business~~


◦	Add assessments for guaranty funds, other insurance‑related assessments or mandatory reinsurance arrangements; or that impair our ability to recover such assessments through future surcharges or other rate changes


◦	~~Increase our provision for federal income taxes due to changes in tax law~~


◦	~~Increase our other expenses~~


◦	~~Limit our ability to set fair, adequate and reasonable rates~~


◦	~~Place us at a disadvantage in the marketplace~~


◦	~~Restrict our ability to execute our business model, including the way we compensate agents~~

◦Impose new obligations on us that increase our expenses or change the assumptions underlying our critical accounting estimates

◦Place the insurance industry under greater regulatory scrutiny or result in new statutes, rules and regulations

◦Restrict our ability to exit or reduce writings of unprofitable coverages or lines of business

◦Add assessments for guaranty funds, other insurance-related assessments or mandatory reinsurance arrangements; or that impair our ability to recover such assessments through future surcharges or other rate changes

◦Increase our provision for federal income taxes due to changes in tax law

◦Increase our other expenses

◦Limit our ability to set fair, adequate and reasonable rates

◦Place us at a disadvantage in the marketplace

◦Restrict our ability to execute our business model, including the way we compensate agents

•Adverse outcomes from litigation or administrative proceedings

•Events or actions, including unauthorized intentional circumvention of controls, that reduce the company’s future ability to maintain effective internal control over financial reporting under the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002

•Unforeseen departure of certain executive officers or other key employees due to retirement, health or other causes that could interrupt progress toward important strategic goals or diminish the effectiveness of certain longstanding relationships with insurance agents and others

•Events, such as an epidemic, natural catastrophe or terrorism, that could hamper our ability to assemble our workforce at our headquarters location

Further, the company’s insurance businesses are subject to the effects of changing social, global, economic and regulatory environments. Public and regulatory initiatives have included efforts to adversely influence and restrict premium rates, restrict the ability to cancel policies, impose underwriting standards and expand overall regulation. The company also is subject to public and regulatory initiatives that can affect the market value for its common stock, such as measures affecting corporate financial reporting and governance. The ultimate changes and eventual effects, if any, of these initiatives are uncertain.

Cincinnati Financial Corporation Second-Quarter 2020 10-Q

Page 28

CORPORATE FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS

Net Income and Comprehensive Income Data


(Dollars in millions, except per share data)	Three months ended June 30,									Six months ended June 30,
	2020		2019		% Change	2020		2019		% Change
Earned premiums	$	1,482	$	1,384	7	$	2,938	$	2,717	8
Investment income, net of expenses (pretax)	166		160		4	331		317		4
Investment gains and losses, net (pretax)	1,060		364		191	(665)		1,027		nm
Total revenues	2,714		1,913		42	2,615		4,072		(36)
Net income (loss)	909		428		112	(317)		1,123		nm
Comprehensive income (loss)	1,302		582		124	(168)		1,465		nm
Net income (loss) per share—diluted	5.63		2.59		117	(1.96)		6.81		nm
Cash dividends declared per share	0.60		0.56		7	1.20		1.12		7
Diluted weighted average shares outstanding	161.5		165.2		(2)	161.5		164.9		(2)

(Dollars in millions, except per share data) Three months ended March 31,
2020 2019 % Change
Earned premiums $ 1,456
$ 1,333
9
Investment income, net of expenses (pretax) 165
157
5
Investment gains and losses, net (pretax) (1,725 ) 663
nm
Total revenues (99 ) 2,159
nm
Net income (loss) (1,226 ) 695
nm
Comprehensive income (loss) (1,470 ) 883
nm
Net income (loss) per share—diluted (7.56 ) 4.22
nm
Cash dividends declared per share 0.60
0.56
7
Diluted weighted average shares outstanding 162.2
164.6
(1 )

Total revenues ~~were negative~~rose 42% for the ~~first~~second quarter of 2020, ~~as a reduction~~compared with the same period of 2019, primarily due to increases in net investment gains ~~offset increases in~~and earned premiums. For the first six months of 2020, compared with the first six months of 2019, total revenues decreased $1.457 billion, as higher earned premiums ~~and~~were offset by net investment ~~income.~~losses. Premium and investment revenue trends are discussed further in the respective sections of Financial Results.

Investment gains and losses are recognized on the sales of investments, on certain changes in fair values of securities even though we continue to hold the securities or as otherwise required by GAAP. We have substantial discretion in the timing of investment sales, and that timing generally is independent of the insurance underwriting process. The change in fair value of securities is also generally independent of the insurance underwriting process.

~~The net loss~~Net income for the ~~first~~second quarter of 2020, compared with ~~first-quarter~~second-quarter 2019, ~~net income, was a change~~increased $481 million, including increases of ~~$1.921 billion, including a decrease of $1.886 billion~~$550 million in after-tax net investment gains and ~~losses and~~$6 million in after-tax investment income, partially offset by a $70 million decrease ~~of $53 million~~ in after-tax property casualty underwriting income. ~~First-quarter~~Second-quarter 2020 catastrophe losses, mostly weather related, were ~~$41~~$79 million higher after taxes and unfavorably affected both net income and property casualty underwriting income. ~~After-tax investment income for the first quarter of 2020 increased by $6 million and life~~Life insurance segment results on a pretax basis improved $3 million compared with ~~first-quarter~~second-quarter 2019.

For the first six months of 2020, net income decreased $1.440 billion, compared with the same period of 2019, including decreases of $1.336 billion in after-tax investment gains and losses and $123 million in after-tax property casualty underwriting income, partially offset by a $12 million improvement in after-tax investment income. The ~~recent outbreak~~property casualty underwriting income decrease included an unfavorable $120 million after-tax effect from higher catastrophe losses. Life insurance segment results improved by $6 million on a pretax basis.

During much of the first six months of 2020, the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2 or COVID-19), recognized as a pandemic by the World Health Organization, caused significant economic effects where we operate, including temporary closures of many businesses and reduced consumer spending due to shelter-in-place, stay-at-home and other governmental ~~regulations.~~actions. Those orders and the uncertainty surrounding COVID-19 had broad financial market effects ~~in the last few weeks of first-quarter 2020~~ and caused significant market disruption and volatility. The stock market volatility was a major contributor to the six-month revenue decrease and net loss effects discussed above, and below in this quarterly report Item 2, Investments Results, that resulted from a reduction in net investment gains for our investment portfolio.

The health and safety of our associates, agents and policyholders is at the top of company priorities. As stay-at-home actions were enacted, we promptly and effectively transitioned most of our headquarters associates to working from home. We provided the technology necessary to keep the business running, as associates continued writing and collecting insurance premiums, processing claims and performing other operational functions. They joined our field associates that already worked from home, providing agents and policyholders with outstanding service. At the end of the second quarter of 2020, nearly all of our associates continued to work from home.

Cincinnati Financial Corporation Second-Quarter 2020 10-Q

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The COVID-19 pandemic ~~did not have a significant effect on~~slowed the growth of our premium revenues for the second quarter and first ~~quarter~~six months of 2020. Approximately 85% of our net written premiums are from renewals of expiring policies or reinsurance treaties that were generally arranged in advance of the economic slowdown resulting from COVID-19 effects on businesses or consumers, and only a small fraction of premiums written in March were earned during the first quarter. In the last few weeks of March and the first few weeks of April, we saw a reduction in submissions from agents for us to quote premiums for policies that would be2020, including new business ~~for us~~written premiums. Premium growth by segment is discussed below in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, we have seen early signs of a higher ratio of quoted policies that were subsequently issued for certain lines of business, which somewhat offset the decrease in submissions. Regardless ofFinancial Results. For future ~~policy submission volume,~~periods, renewal premium or new business ~~and renewal~~ premium amounts could further decline if the basis for policy premiums, such as sales and payrolls of businesses we insure, decrease as a result of the pandemic and a weakened economy. ~~Early in~~In addition, the ultimate effects of recent or future government-ordered moratoriums or deferral of premium payments related to our insurance policies are uncertain and may further adversely affect premium growth. We are not able to determine premium effects for future periods.

During the second quarter of 2020, weour estimates for incurred losses and expenses included approximately $65 million related to the pandemic. The total included $19 million for legal expenses in defense of business interruption claims, $15 million for Cincinnati Re^® losses, $9 million for Cincinnati Global Underwriting Ltd.^SM (Cincinnati Global) losses, $6 million for credit losses related to uncollectible premiums and $16 million for the previously announced ~~a 15%~~Stay-at-Home policyholder credit ~~applied to each~~for personal auto ~~policy~~policies.

Approximately half of the losses for Cincinnati Re represent its estimated share from reinsurance treaties with companies that provided affirmative coverage for pandemic-related business interruption, and most of the ~~months of April and May, for~~remainder is an estimated ~~aggregate amount~~share of ~~$16 million. At this time, we are not able to determine other material effects~~treaties covering professional liability. Most of the ~~pandemic~~losses for ~~future periods.~~Cincinnati Global represent its share of potential losses from business interruption coverage for large risks with customized policy terms and conditions.

Loss experience for our insurance operations is influenced by many factors, as discussed in our 2019 Annual Report on Form 10-K, Item 7, Property Casualty Insurance Loss and Loss Expense Reserves, ~~page~~Page 56. ~~We have not determined any material effect on our loss experience for the first quarter of 2020 as a result of the pandemic.~~ Because of ~~fewer vehicles on the road and other~~various factors that ~~reduce~~affect exposure to certain insurance losses, such as less miles driven for vehicles or reduced sales and payrolls for businesses, there could be a reduction in future losses, ~~that~~and in some cases a generally ~~correspond to reduced premiums. For example, we saw a~~corresponding reduction in ~~personal auto reported claims as a result of reduced driving in late March and early April. However,~~premiums. Also, there could be losses or legal expenses that increase or otherwise occur ~~independent~~independently of changes in sales or payrolls of businesses we insure. ~~At this time, we~~We are not able to determine ~~premium or~~ loss effects for future periods.

Virtually all of our commercial property policies do not provide coverage for business interruption claims unless there is direct physical damage or loss to property. Because a virus does not produce direct physical damage or loss to property, no coverage exists for this peril – rendering an exclusion unnecessary. For this reason, most of our standard market commercial property policies in states where we actively write business do not contain a specific exclusion for COVID-19. While we will evaluate each claim based on the specific facts and circumstances involved, our commercial property policies do not provide coverage for business interruption claims unless there is direct physical damage or loss to property.

Performance by segment is discussed below in Financial Results. As discussed in our 2019 Annual Report on Form 10-K, Item 7, Factors Influencing Our Future Performance, Page 55, there are several reasons why our performance during 2020 may be below our long-term targets.

The board of directors is committed to rewarding shareholders directly through cash dividends and through share repurchase authorizations. Through 2019, the company had increased the annual cash dividend rate for 59 consecutive years, a record we believe is matched by only seven other publicly traded companies. In January 2020, the board of directors increased the regular quarterly dividend to 60 cents per share, setting the stage for our 60^th consecutive year of increasing cash dividends. During the first ~~three~~six months of 2020, cash dividends declared by the company increased 7% compared with the same period of 2019. Our board regularly evaluates relevant factors in decisions related to dividends and share repurchases. The 2020 dividend increase reflected our strong earnings performance and signaled management's and the board's positive outlook and confidence in our outstanding capital, liquidity and financial flexibility.

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Page 30

Balance Sheet Data and Performance Measures

(Dollars in millions, except share data) At March 31, At December 31,
2020 2019
Total investments $ 17,876
$ 19,746
Total assets 23,367
25,408
Short-term debt 114
39
Long-term debt 788
788
Shareholders' equity 8,042
9,864
Book value per share 50.02
60.55
Debt-to-total-capital ratio 10.1 % 7.7 %


(Dollars in millions, except share data)	At June 30,			At December 31,
	2020			2019
Total investments	$	19,487		$	19,746
Total assets	25,450			25,408
Short-term debt	122			39
Long-term debt	788			788
Shareholders' equity	9,258			9,864
Book value per share	57.56			60.55
Debt-to-total-capital ratio	8.9		%	7.7		%

Total assets at ~~March 31,~~June 30, 2020, ~~decreased 8%~~increased by less than 1% compared with year-end 2019, and included a 9%1% decrease in total investments that reflected lower fair values for many securities in our portfolio. Shareholders' equity decreased ~~18%,~~6% and book value per share decreased ~~17%~~5% during the first ~~three~~six months of 2020. Our debt-to-total-capital ratio (capital is the sum of debt plus shareholders' equity) increased compared with year-end 2019.

Our value creation ratio is our primary performance metric. That ratio was negative ~~16.4%~~3.0% for the first ~~three~~six months of 2020, and was significantly lower than the same period in 2019, primarily due to a reduction of overall net gains from our investment portfolio. The ~~$10.53~~$2.99 decrease in book value per share during the first ~~three~~six months of 2020 contributed negative ~~17.4~~5.0 percentage points to the value creation ratio, while dividends declared at ~~$0.60~~$1.20 per share contributed ~~1.0 point.~~positive 2.0 points. Value creation ratios by major components and in total, along with calculations from per-share amounts, are shown in the tables below.

Three months ended March 31,
2020 2019
Value creation ratio major components:

Net income before investment gains 1.4 % 2.2 %
Change in fixed-maturity securities, realized and unrealized gains (3.2 ) 2.5
Change in equity securities, investment gains (13.4 ) 6.6
Other (1.2 ) (0.2 )
Value creation ratio (16.4 )% 11.1 %


	Three months ended June 30,						Six months ended June 30,
	2020		2019		2020		2019
Value creation ratio major components:
Net income before investment gains	0.9	%	1.6	%	2.1	%	4.0	%
Change in fixed-maturity securities, realized and unrealized gains	5.0		1.8		0.8		4.4
Change in equity securities, investment gains	10.5		3.4		(4.7)		10.3
Other	(0.1)		0.0		(1.2)		(0.1)
Value creation ratio	16.3	%	6.8	%	(3.0)	%	18.6	%

Cincinnati Financial Corporation Second-Quarter 2020 10-Q

Page 31


(Dollars are per share)	Three months ended March 31,						(Dollars are per share)	Three months ended June 30,									Six months ended June 30,
	2020			2019				2020			2019			2020			2019
Value creation ratio:							Value creation ratio:
End of period book value*	$	50.02		$	52.88		End of period book value*	$	57.56		$	55.92		$	57.56		$	55.92
Less beginning of period book value	60.55			48.10			Less beginning of period book value	50.02			52.88			60.55			48.10
Change in book value	(10.53		)	4.78			Change in book value	7.54			3.04			(2.99)			7.82
Dividend declared to shareholders	0.60			0.56			Dividend declared to shareholders	0.60			0.56			1.20			1.12
Total value creation	$	(9.93	)	$	5.34		Total value creation	$	8.14		$	3.60		$	(1.79)		$	8.94

Value creation ratio from change in book value**	(17.4		)%	9.9		%	Value creation ratio from change in book value**	15.1		%	5.7		%	(5.0)		%	16.3		%
Value creation ratio from dividends declared to shareholders***	1.0			1.2			Value creation ratio from dividends declared to shareholders***	1.2			1.1			2.0			2.3
Value creation ratio	(16.4		)%	11.1		%	Value creation ratio	16.3		%	6.8		%	(3.0)		%	18.6		%

* Book value per share is calculated by dividing end of period total shareholders' equity by end of period shares outstanding	* Book value per share is calculated by dividing end of period total shareholders' equity by end of period shares outstanding						* Book value per share is calculated by dividing end of period total shareholders' equity by end of period shares outstanding
** Change in book value divided by the beginning of period book value	** Change in book value divided by the beginning of period book value						** Change in book value divided by the beginning of period book value
*** Dividend declared to shareholders divided by beginning of period book value	*** Dividend declared to shareholders divided by beginning of period book value						*** Dividend declared to shareholders divided by beginning of period book value

DRIVERS OF LONG-TERM VALUE CREATION

Operating through The Cincinnati Insurance Company, Cincinnati Financial Corporation is one of the 25 largest property casualty insurers in the nation, based on 2019 net written premiums for approximately 2,000 U.S. stock and mutual insurer groups. We market our insurance products through a select group of independent insurance agencies as discussed in our 2019 Annual Report on Form 10-K, Item 1, Our Business and Our Strategy, Page 5. At ~~March 31,~~June 30, 2020, we actively marketed through agencies located in 45 states. We maintain a long-term perspective that guides us in addressing immediate challenges or opportunities while focusing on the major decisions that best position our company for success through all market cycles.

To measure our long-term progress in creating shareholder value, our value creation ratio is our primary financial performance target. As discussed in our 2019 Annual Report on Form 10-K, Item 7, Executive Summary, Page 51, management believes this measure is a meaningful indicator of our long-term progress in creating shareholder value and has three primary performance drivers:

•Premium growth – We believe our agency relationships and initiatives can lead to a property casualty written premium growth rate over any five-year period that exceeds the industry average. For the first ~~three~~six months of 2020, our consolidated property casualty net written premium year-over-year growth was ~~10%~~8%. As of March 2020, A.M. Best projected the industry's full-year 2020 written premium growth at approximately 4%. For the five-year period 2015 through 2019, our growth rate exceeded that of the industry. The industry's growth rate excludes its mortgage and financial guaranty lines of business.

•Combined ratio – We believe our underwriting philosophy and initiatives can generate a GAAP combined ratio over any five-year period that is consistently within the range of 95% to 100%. For the first ~~three~~six months of 2020, our GAAP combined ratio was ~~98.5%~~100.8%, including ~~9.4~~13.2 percentage points of current accident year catastrophe losses partially offset by ~~2.4~~2.8 percentage points of favorable loss reserve development on prior accident years. Our statutory combined ratio was ~~96.6%~~98.7% for the first ~~three~~six months of 2020. As of March 2020, A.M. Best projected the industry's full-year 2020 statutory combined ratio at approximately 99%, including approximately 5 percentage points of catastrophe losses and a favorable effect of approximately 1 percentage point of loss reserve development on prior accident years. The industry's ratio again excludes its mortgage and financial guaranty lines of business.

•Investment contribution – We believe our investment philosophy and initiatives can drive investment income growth and lead to a total return on our equity investment portfolio over a five-year period that exceeds the five-year return of the Standard & Poor's 500 Index. For the first ~~three~~six months of 2020, pretax investment income was ~~$165~~$331 million, up 5%4% compared with the same period in 2019. We believe our investment portfolio mix provides an appropriate balance of income stability and growth with capital appreciation potential.

Cincinnati Financial Corporation Second-Quarter 2020 10-Q

Page 32

Highlights of Our Strategy and Supporting Initiatives

Management has worked to identify a strategy that can lead to long-term success, with concurrence by the board of directors. Our strategy is intended to position us to compete successfully in the markets we have targeted while appropriately managing risk. Further description of our long-term, proven strategy can be found in our 2019 Annual Report on Form 10-K, Item 1, Our Business and Our Strategy, Page 5. We believe successful implementation of initiatives that support our strategy will help us better serve our agent customers and reduce volatility in our financial results while we also grow earnings and book value over the long term, successfully navigating challenging economic, market or industry pricing cycles.

•Manage insurance profitability – Implementation of these initiatives is intended to enhance underwriting expertise and knowledge, thereby increasing our ability to manage our business while also gaining efficiency. Better profit margins can arise from additional information and more focused action on underperforming product lines, plus pricing capabilities we are expanding through the use of technology and analytics. In addition to enhancing company efficiency, improving internal processes also supports the ability of the independent agencies that represent us to grow profitably by allowing them to serve clients faster and to more efficiently manage agency expenses.

We continue to enhance our property casualty underwriting expertise and to effectively and efficiently underwrite individual policies and process transactions. Ongoing initiatives supporting this work include expanding our pricing and segmentation capabilities through experience and use of predictive analytics and additional data. Our segmentation efforts emphasize identification and retention of insurance policies we believe have relatively stronger pricing, while seeking more aggressive renewal terms and conditions on policies we believe have relatively weaker pricing. In 2020, we are continuing to improve underwriting and rate adequacy for our commercial auto and homeowner lines of business. Our commercial auto policies that renewed during the first ~~three~~six months of 2020 experienced an estimated average price increase at percentages in the ~~mid-single-digit~~high-single-digit range, and our homeowner policies that renewed during that period ~~also~~ averaged an estimated price increase at percentages in the mid-single-digit range.

•

•Drive premium growth – Implementation of these initiatives is intended to further penetrate each market we serve through our independent agencies. Strategies aimed at specific market opportunities, along with service enhancements, can help our agents grow and increase our share of their business. Premium growth initiatives also include expansion of Cincinnati Re, our reinsurance assumed operation, and successful integration of these initiatives is intended to further penetrate each market we serve through our independent agencies. Strategies aimed at specific market opportunities, along with service enhancements, can help our agents grow and increase our share of their business. Premium growth initiatives also include expansion of Cincinnati Re^SM~~, our reinsurance assumed operation, and successful integration of~~

Cincinnati Global, ~~Underwriting Ltd.~~^SM ~~(Cincinnati Global),~~ our London-based global specialty underwriter for Lloyd's Syndicate 318. Diversified growth also may reduce variability of losses from weather-related catastrophes.

We continue to appoint new agencies to develop additional points of distribution. In 2020, we are planning approximately 125 appointments of independent agencies that offer most or all of our property casualty insurance products. During the first ~~three~~six months of 2020, we appointed 5072 new agencies that meet that criteria.

We also plan to appoint additional agencies that focus on high net worth personal lines clients. In 2020, we are targeting the appointment of approximately 35 agencies that market only personal lines products for us. During the first ~~three~~six months of 2020, we appointed 1123 new agencies that meet that criteria.

As of ~~March 31,~~June 30, 2020, a total of ~~1,814~~1,831 agency relationships market our property casualty insurance products from ~~2,492~~2,530 reporting locations. The totals do not include Lloyd's brokers or coverholders that source business for Cincinnati Global.

We also continue to grow premiums through the disciplined expansion of Cincinnati Re and the acquisition of Cincinnati Global. During the first ~~three~~six months of 2020, Cincinnati Re contributed ~~$21~~$32 million of growth in consolidated property casualty insurance net written premiums while Cincinnati Global contributed ~~$16~~$25 million. We also believe that over time Cincinnati Global will provide opportunities to support business produced by our independent agencies in new geographies and lines of business.

Cincinnati Financial Corporation Second-Quarter 2020 10-Q

Page 33

Financial Strength

An important part of our long-term strategy is financial strength, which is described in our 2019 Annual Report on Form 10-K, Item 1, Our Business and Our Strategy, Financial Strength, Page 8. One aspect of our financial strength is prudent use of reinsurance ceded to help manage financial performance variability due to catastrophe loss experience. A description of how we use reinsurance ceded is included in our 2019 Annual Report on Form 10-K, Item 7, Liquidity and Capital Resources, 2020 Reinsurance Ceded Programs, Page 109. Another aspect of our financial strength is our investment portfolio, which remains well-diversified as discussed in this quarterly report in Item 3, Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk. Our strong parent-company liquidity and financial strength increase our flexibility to maintain a cash dividend through all periods and to continue to invest in and expand our insurance operations.

At ~~March 31,~~June 30, 2020, we held ~~$2.670~~$3.171 billion of our cash and invested assets at the parent-company level, of which ~~$2.498~~$2.981 billion, or ~~93.6%~~94.0%, was invested in common stocks, and ~~$16~~$35 million, or ~~0.6%~~1.1%, was cash or cash equivalents. Our debt-to-total-capital ratio was ~~10.1%~~8.9% at ~~March 31,~~June 30, 2020. Another important indicator of financial strength is our ratio of property casualty net written premiums to statutory surplus, which was ~~1.2-to-1~~1.1-to-1 for the 12 months ended ~~March 31,~~June 30, 2020, compared with 1.0-to-1 at year-end 2019.

Financial strength ratings assigned to us by independent rating firms also are important. In addition to rating our parent company's senior debt, four firms award insurer financial strength ratings to one or more of our insurance subsidiary companies based on their quantitative and qualitative analyses. These ratings primarily assess an insurer's ability to meet financial obligations to policyholders and do not necessarily address all of the matters that may be important to investors. Ratings are under continuous review and subject to change or withdrawal at any time by the rating agency. Each rating should be evaluated independently of any other rating; please see each rating agency's website for its most recent report on our ratings.

At ~~April~~July 24, 2020, our insurance subsidiaries continued to be highly rated.

Insurer Financial Strength Ratings

Rating

agency

Standard market property casualty insurance subsidiaries

Life insurance

subsidiary

Excess and surplus lines insurance subsidiary

Outlook

Rating

tier

Rating

tier

Rating

tier

A.M. Best Co.

ambest.com

A+

Superior

2 of 16

A+

Superior

2 of 16

A+

Superior

2 of 16

Stable

Fitch Ratings

fitchratings.com

A+

Strong

5 of 21

A+

Strong

5 of 21

Stable

Moody's Investors Service

moodys.com

Good

5 of 21

Stable

S&P Global Ratings

spratings.com

A+

Strong

5 of 21

A+

Strong

5 of 21

Stable

Cincinnati Financial Corporation Second-Quarter 2020 10-Q

Page 34

CONSOLIDATED PROPERTY CASUALTY INSURANCE HIGHLIGHTS

Consolidated property casualty insurance results include premiums and expenses for our standard market insurance segments (commercial lines and personal lines), our excess and surplus lines segment, Cincinnati Re and our London-based global specialty underwriter ~~known as~~ Cincinnati Global.


(Dollars in millions)	Three months ended March 31,								(Dollars in millions)	Three months ended June 30,													Six months ended June 30,
	2020			2019			% Change			2020			2019			% Change	2020			2019			% Change
Earned premiums	$	1,389		$	1,267		10		Earned premiums	$	1,403		$	1,317		7	$	2,792		$	2,584		8
Fee revenues	3			3			0		Fee revenues	2			2			0	5			5			0
Total revenues	1,392			1,270			10		Total revenues	1,405			1,319			7	2,797			2,589			8
Loss and loss expenses from:									Loss and loss expenses from:
Current accident year before catastrophe losses	832			786			6		Current accident year before catastrophe losses	817			802			2	1,649			1,588			4
Current accident year catastrophe losses	131			71			85		Current accident year catastrophe losses	237			145			63	368			216			70
Prior accident years before catastrophe losses	(28		)	(70		)	60		Prior accident years before catastrophe losses	(41)			(69)			41	(69)			(139)			50
Prior accident years catastrophe losses	(5		)	3			nm		Prior accident years catastrophe losses	(6)			(15)			60	(11)			(12)			8
Loss and loss expenses	930			790			18		Loss and loss expenses	1,007			863			17	1,937			1,653			17
Underwriting expenses	438			389			13		Underwriting expenses	439			408			8	877			797			10
Underwriting profit	$	24		$	91		(74	)
Underwriting profit (loss)									Underwriting profit (loss)	$	(41)		$	48		nm	$	(17)		$	139		nm

Ratios as a percent of earned premiums:							Pt. Change		Ratios as a percent of earned premiums:							Pt. Change							Pt. Change
Current accident year before catastrophe losses	59.9		%	62.0		%	(2.1	)	Current accident year before catastrophe losses	58.2		%	60.9		%	(2.7)	59.0		%	61.5		%	(2.5)
Current accident year catastrophe losses	9.4			5.6			3.8		Current accident year catastrophe losses	16.9			11.1			5.8	13.2			8.4			4.8
Prior accident years before catastrophe losses	(2.1		)	(5.5		)	3.4		Prior accident years before catastrophe losses	(2.9)			(5.3)			2.4	(2.4)			(5.4)			3.0
Prior accident years catastrophe losses	(0.3		)	0.2			(0.5	)	Prior accident years catastrophe losses	(0.4)			(1.1)			0.7	(0.4)			(0.5)			0.1
Loss and loss expenses	66.9			62.3			4.6		Loss and loss expenses	71.8			65.6			6.2	69.4			64.0			5.4
Underwriting expenses	31.6			30.7			0.9		Underwriting expenses	31.3			30.9			0.4	31.4			30.8			0.6
Combined ratio	98.5		%	93.0		%	5.5		Combined ratio	103.1		%	96.5		%	6.6	100.8		%	94.8		%	6.0

Combined ratio	98.5		%	93.0		%	5.5		Combined ratio	103.1		%	96.5		%	6.6	100.8		%	94.8		%	6.0
Contribution from catastrophe losses and prior years reserve development	7.0			0.3			6.7		Contribution from catastrophe losses and prior years reserve development	13.6			4.7			8.9	10.4			2.5			7.9
Combined ratio before catastrophe losses and prior years reserve development	91.5		%	92.7		%	(1.2	)	Combined ratio before catastrophe losses and prior years reserve development	89.5		%	91.8		%	(2.3)	90.4		%	92.3		%	(1.9)

The COVID-19 pandemic ~~did not have a significant effect on~~slowed the rate of our premium growth for the second quarter and first six months of 2020. Consolidated property casualty net written premiums grew 6% during second-quarter 2020, following growth of 10% for both the first quarter of ~~2020. In the last few weeks of March~~2020 and full-year 2019. For the first ~~few weeks~~six months of ~~April, we saw~~2020, net written premiums grew 8%, compared with 10% for the first half of 2019. New business written premiums for the second quarter of 2020 decreased compared with the same period a year ago, and was largely responsible for the slowed growth in net written premiums.

New business written premiums decreased 1% for second-quarter 2020, compared with second-quarter 2019, reflecting a reduction in submissions from agents for us to quote premiums for policies during the first half of the quarter. During the second half of the quarter, as government restrictions eased and businesses reopened, submission counts were higher than the same period in 2019. For policies that ~~would be new business for us in~~renewed during the second quarter of ~~2020. At~~2020, higher average pricing offset some of the ~~same time, we have seen early signs of a higher ratio of quoted policies~~decrease in new business written premiums and reduced insured exposure levels that ~~were subsequently issued for~~affected some lines of ~~business, which somewhat offset the decrease in submissions.~~business. Regardless of future policy submission volume and pricing changes, new business and renewal premium amounts could decline if the exposure basis for policy premiums, such as sales and payrolls of businesses we insure, decrease as a result of a weakened economy. ~~At this time, we~~We are not able to determine other effects of the pandemic on future periods.

Loss experience for our insurance operations is influenced by many ~~factors. We have not determined any material effect on our loss experience~~factors as discussed in further detail in Financial Results by property casualty insurance segment. Consolidated property casualty paid losses before catastrophe effects for the ~~first~~second quarter of 2020, as a ~~result~~ratio to earned premiums, were 11.0 percentage points

Cincinnati Financial Corporation Second-Quarter 2020 10-Q

Page 35

lower than the same period a year ago, in part due to reduced business activity and fewer vehicles on the road that reflected pandemic effects. Case incurred losses before catastrophe effects were 12.7 points lower but were mostly offset by reserves for incurred but not reported (IBNR) losses that increased by 11.1 points. For the first six months of ~~the pandemic. Because of~~2020, compared with a year ago, ratios before catastrophe effects included: 8.3 percentage points lower for paid losses, 7.2 points lower for case incurred losses and 6.5 points higher for IBNR losses. For future periods, factors that reduce exposure to certain insurance losses, such as fewer ~~vehicles on the road~~vehicular miles driven or reduced sales and payrolls for businesses, ~~there~~ could because a reduction in future losses that generally correspond to reduced premiums. However, there could be losses or legal expenses that occur independent of changes in mileage, sales or payrolls of businesses we insure. ~~At this time, we~~We are not able to determine premium or loss effects for future periods.

Our consolidated property casualty insurance operations generated an underwriting ~~profit~~loss of ~~$24~~$41 million for the second quarter of 2020 and $17 million for the first ~~three~~six months of 2020. The ~~decrease~~decreases of ~~$67~~$89 million and $156 million, respectively, compared with the ~~first quarter~~same periods of 2019, included an unfavorable ~~increase~~increases of ~~$52~~$101 million and $153 million in losses from ~~natural~~ catastrophes, mostly caused by severe weather. We believe future property casualty underwriting results will continue to benefit from price increases and our ongoing initiatives to improve pricing precision and loss experience related to claims and loss control practices.

For all property casualty lines of business in aggregate, net loss and loss expense reserves at ~~March 31,~~June 30, 2020, were ~~$113~~$369 million higher, or 6%, than at year-end 2019, including an increase of ~~$121~~$310 million for the ~~incurred but not reported (IBNR)~~IBNR portion. ~~The $113 million reserve increase raised year-end 2019 net loss and loss expense reserves by 2%.~~

We measure and analyze property casualty underwriting results primarily by the combined ratio and its component ratios. The GAAP-basis combined ratio is the percentage of incurred losses plus all expenses per each earned premium dollar – the lower the ratio, the better the performance. An underwriting profit results when the combined ratio is below 100%. A combined ratio above 100% indicates that an insurance company's losses and expenses exceeded premiums.

Our consolidated property casualty combined ratio for the ~~first~~second quarter of 2020 increased by ~~5.5~~6.6 percentage points, compared with the same period of 2019, including an increase of ~~3.3~~6.5 points from higher catastrophe losses and loss expenses. For the first six months of 2020, compared with the 2019 six-month period, our combined ratio increased by 6.0 percentage points, including an increase of 4.9 points from higher catastrophe losses and loss expenses.

The combined ratio can be affected significantly by natural catastrophe losses and other large losses as discussed in detail below. The combined ratio can also be affected by updated estimates of loss and loss expense reserves established for claims that occurred in prior periods, referred to as prior accident years. Net favorable development on prior accident year reserves, including reserves for catastrophe losses, benefited the combined ratio by ~~2.4~~2.8 percentage points in the first ~~three~~six months of 2020, compared with ~~5.3~~5.9 percentage points in the same period of 2019. Net favorable development is discussed in further detail in Financial Results by property casualty insurance segment.

The ratio for current accident year loss and loss expenses before catastrophe losses improved in the first ~~three~~six months of 2020. That ~~59.9%~~59.0% ratio was ~~2.1~~2.5 percentage points lower, compared with the ~~62.0%~~61.5% accident year 2019 ratio measured as of ~~March 31,~~June 30, 2019, including an increase of ~~0.7~~0.4 points in the ratio for large losses of $1 million or more per claim, discussed below.

The underwriting expense ratio increased for the second quarter and first ~~quarter~~six months of 2020, compared with the same ~~period~~periods a year ago. The increase was ~~largely~~primarily due to a Stay-at-Home policyholder credit for personal auto policies and higher ~~employee-related expenses~~credit losses due to uncollectible premiums, and ~~premium taxes, plus the full effect of Cincinnati Global, which partially~~ offset ongoing expense management efforts and higher earned premiums.

Cincinnati Financial Corporation Second-Quarter 2020 10-Q

Page 36

Consolidated Property Casualty Insurance Premiums


(Dollars in millions)	Three months ended March 31,								(Dollars in millions)	Three months ended June 30,									Six months ended June 30,
	2020			2019			% Change			2020		2019		% Change	2020		2019		% Change
Agency renewal written premiums	$	1,198		$	1,130		6		Agency renewal written premiums	$	1,244	$	1,186	5	$	2,442	$	2,316	5
Agency new business written premiums	215			181			19		Agency new business written premiums	210		212		(1)	425		393		8

Other written premiums	105			70			50		Other written premiums	105		78		35	210		148		42
Net written premiums	1,518			1,381			10		Net written premiums	1,559		1,476		6	3,077		2,857		8
Unearned premium change	(129		)	(114		)	(13	)	Unearned premium change	(156)		(159)		2	(285)		(273)		(4)
Earned premiums	$	1,389		$	1,267		10		Earned premiums	$	1,403	$	1,317	7	$	2,792	$	2,584	8

The trends in net written premiums and earned premiums summarized in the table above include the effects of price increases. Price change trends that heavily influence renewal written premium increases or decreases, along with other premium growth drivers for 2020, are discussed in more detail by segment below in Financial Results.

Consolidated property casualty net written premiums for the three and six months ended ~~March 31, 2019,~~June 30, 2020, grew ~~$137~~$83 million and $220 million compared with the same ~~period~~periods of 2019, ~~primarily from our commercial lines insurance segment.~~with growth in each segment in addition to Cincinnati Re and Cincinnati Global. Our premium growth initiatives from prior years have provided an ongoing favorable effect on growth during the current year, particularly as newer agency relationships mature over time.

Consolidated property casualty agency new business written premiums ~~increased~~decreased by ~~$34~~$2 million for the second quarter of 2020 but grew $32 million for the first ~~quarter~~six months of ~~2020,~~the year, compared with the same ~~period~~periods of 2019. The six-month increase was driven by our commercial lines insurance segment. New agency appointments during 2019 and 2020 produced ~~an $18~~a $35 million increase in standard lines new business for the first ~~three~~six months of 2020 compared with the same period of 2019. As we appoint new agencies

that choose to move accounts to us, we report these accounts as new business. While this business is new to us, in many cases it is not new to the agent. We believe these seasoned accounts tend to be priced more accurately than business that may be less familiar to our agent upon obtaining it from a competing agent.

Net written premiums for Cincinnati Re, included in other written premiums, increased by ~~$21~~$11 million and $32 million for the three and six months ended ~~March 31,~~June 30, 2020, compared with the same ~~period~~periods of 2019, to ~~$105 million.~~$84 million and $189 million, respectively. Cincinnati Re assumes risks through reinsurance treaties and in some cases cedes part of the risk and related premiums to one or more unaffiliated reinsurance companies through transactions known as retrocessions. Cincinnati Re earned premiums were ~~$62~~$119 million for the first ~~three~~six months of 2020, compared with ~~$40~~$86 million for the same period a year ago.

Cincinnati Global also contributed to the increase in other written premiums, following our acquisition of it on February 28, 2019. Net written premiums increased by ~~$16~~$9 million and $25 million for the three and six months ended ~~March 31,~~June 30, 2020, compared with ~~$21 million for one month of premiums~~the second quarter and four-month periods in 2019, to ~~$37 million.~~$53 million and $90 million, respectively. Cincinnati Global earned premiums were ~~$27 million and $10~~$61 million for ~~those respective periods.~~the first six months of 2020, compared with $43 million for the four-month period a year ago.

Other written premiums also include premiums ceded to reinsurers as part of our reinsurance ceded program. ~~An increase~~A decrease in ceded premiums ~~reduced~~increased net written premiums by $2$6 million and $4 million for the second quarter and first ~~quarter~~six months of 2020, compared with the same ~~period~~periods of 2019.

Catastrophe losses and loss expenses typically have a material effect on property casualty results and can vary significantly from period to period. Losses from ~~natural~~ catastrophes contributed ~~9.1~~16.5 and 12.8 percentage points to the combined ratio in the second quarter and first ~~quarter~~six months of 2020, compared with ~~5.8~~10.0 and 7.9 percentage points in the same ~~period~~periods of 2019.

Effective June 1, 2020, we restructured and renewed our combined property catastrophe occurrence excess of loss treaty for a period of one year, commuting the expiring treaty one month in advance of its expiration date. The treaty provides coverage for various combinations of occurrences, has an aggregate limit of $50 million in excess of $150 million per loss and applies to business written on a direct basis and by Cincinnati Re. Cincinnati Global

Cincinnati Financial Corporation Second-Quarter 2020 10-Q

Page 37

catastrophe losses are not applicable to the treaty. Ceded premiums for the one-year renewal period of coverage from this treaty are estimated to be approximately $11 million. Cincinnati Re purchases additional reinsurance coverages with various triggers and unique features. As of June 1, 2020, Cincinnati Re had separate property catastrophe excess of loss coverage with a total available aggregate limit of $30 million.

The following table shows consolidated property casualty insurance catastrophe losses and loss expenses incurred, net of reinsurance, as well as the effect of loss development on prior period catastrophe events. We individually list declared catastrophe events for which our incurred losses reached or exceeded $10 million.

Consolidated Property Casualty Insurance Catastrophe Losses and Loss Expenses Incurred

(Dollars in millions, net of reinsurance) Three months ended March 31,
Comm. Pers. E&S
Dates Region lines lines lines Other Total
2020

Jan. 10-12 Midwest, Northeast, South
$ 6
$ 5
$ —
$ —
$ 11
Feb. 5-8 Northeast, South
11
6
—
—
17
Mar. 2-4 Midwest, South
64
10
—
—
74
Mar. 27-30 Midwest, Northeast, South
6
16
—
—
22
All other 2020 catastrophes
1
6
—
—
7
Development on 2019 and prior catastrophes
(3 ) (5 ) —
3
(5 )
Calendar year incurred total
$ 85
$ 38
$ —
$ 3
$ 126

2019

Jan. 29-Feb. 1 Midwest, Northeast
$ 14
$ 11
$ —
$ —
$ 25
Feb. 23-26 Midwest, Northeast, South
11
12
—
—
23
Mar. 12-17 Midwest, Northeast, West, South
4
7
—
—
11
All other 2019 catastrophes
4
8
—
—
12
Development on 2018 and prior catastrophes
(6 ) 8
—
1
3
Calendar year incurred total
$ 27
$ 46
$ —
$ 1
$ 74


(Dollars in millions, net of reinsurance)				Three months ended June 30,																																				Six months ended June 30,
		Comm.				Pers.				E&S												Comm.				Pers.				E&S
Dates	Region	lines				lines				lines				Other				Total				lines				lines				lines				Other				Total
2020
Jan. 10-12	Midwest, Northeast, South	$	—			$	—			$	—			$	—			$	—			$	6			$	5			$	—			$	—			$	11
Feb. 5-8	Northeast, South	(1)				(1)				—				—				(2)				10				5				—				—				15
Mar. 2-4	Midwest, South	1				(2)				—				5				4				64				8				—				6				78
Mar. 17-20	Midwest, South	1				5				—				—				6				2				10				—				—				12
Mar. 27-30	Midwest, Northeast, South	18				(3)				—				—				15				24				13				—				—				37
Apr. 7-9	Midwest, Northeast, South	26				25				—				—				51				26				25				—				—				51
Apr. 10-14	Midwest, Northeast, South	22				27				—				—				49				22				27				—				—				49
May 4-5	Midwest, South	22				5				—				—				27				22				5				—				—				27
May 26 - Jun. 8	Midwest, Northeast, South, West	20				—				1				8				29				20				—				1				8				29




All other 2020 catastrophes				18				36				2				2				58				19				37				2				1				59
Development on 2019 and prior catastrophes				(6)				—				—				—				(6)				(9)				(5)				—				3				(11)
Calendar year incurred total				$	121			$	92			$	3			$	15			$	231			$	206			$	130			$	3			$	18			$	357

2019
Jan. 29-Feb. 1	Midwest, Northeast	$	(3)			$	(1)			$	—			$	1			$	(3)			$	11			$	10			$	—			$	1			$	22
Feb. 23-26	Midwest, Northeast, South	—				(2)				—				—				(2)				11				10				—				—				21
Mar. 12-17	Midwest, Northeast, West, South	1				(1)				—				2				2				5				6				—				2				13

May 16-17	Midwest	6				6				—				—				12				6				6				—				—				12
May 26-28	Midwest, Northeast, West, South	78				24				—				—				102				78				24				—				—				102






All other 2019 catastrophes				22				12				—				—				34				26				20				—				—				46
Development on 2018 and prior catastrophes				(8)				(3)				—				(4)				(15)				(14)				5				—				(3)				(12)
Calendar year incurred total				$	96			$	35			$	—			$	(1)			$	130			$	123			$	81			$	—			$	—			$	204

Cincinnati Financial Corporation Second-Quarter 2020 10-Q

Page 38

The following table includes data for losses incurred of $1 million or more per claim, net of reinsurance.

Consolidated Property Casualty Insurance Losses Incurred by Size


(Dollars in millions, net of reinsurance)	Three months ended March 31,								(Dollars in millions, net of reinsurance)	Three months ended June 30,													Six months ended June 30,
	2020			2019			% Change			2020			2019			% Change	2020			2019			% Change
Current accident year losses greater than $5 million	$	—		$	—		nm		Current accident year losses greater than $5 million	$	19		$	14		36	$	19		$	14		36
Current accident year losses $1 million - $5 million	50			37			35		Current accident year losses $1 million - $5 million	53			53			—	103			90			14
Large loss prior accident year reserve development	26			16			63		Large loss prior accident year reserve development	7			5			40	33			21			57
Total large losses incurred	76			53			43		Total large losses incurred	79			72			10	155			125			24
Losses incurred but not reported	79			47			68		Losses incurred but not reported	134			(14)			nm	213			33			nm
Other losses excluding catastrophe losses	496			493			1		Other losses excluding catastrophe losses	409			547			(25)	905			1,039			(13)
Catastrophe losses	123			69			78		Catastrophe losses	226			128			77	349			198			76
Total losses incurred	$	774		$	662		17		Total losses incurred	$	848		$	733		16	$	1,622		$	1,395		16

Ratios as a percent of earned premiums:							Pt. Change		Ratios as a percent of earned premiums:							Pt. Change							Pt. Change
Current accident year losses greater than $5 million	—		%	—		%	0.0		Current accident year losses greater than $5 million	1.4		%	1.1		%	0.3	0.7		%	0.5		%	0.2
Current accident year losses $1 million - $5 million	3.6			2.9			0.7		Current accident year losses $1 million - $5 million	3.7			4.0			(0.3)	3.7			3.5			0.2
Large loss prior accident year reserve development	1.9			1.2			0.7		Large loss prior accident year reserve development	0.5			0.4			0.1	1.2			0.8			0.4
Total large loss ratio	5.5			4.1			1.4		Total large loss ratio	5.6			5.5			0.1	5.6			4.8			0.8
Losses incurred but not reported	5.7			3.7			2.0		Losses incurred but not reported	9.6			(1.1)			10.7	7.6			1.3			6.3
Other losses excluding catastrophe losses	35.6			38.9			(3.3	)	Other losses excluding catastrophe losses	29.2			41.6			(12.4)	32.4			40.2			(7.8)
Catastrophe losses	8.9			5.5			3.4		Catastrophe losses	16.1			9.7			6.4	12.5			7.7			4.8
Total loss ratio	55.7		%	52.2		%	3.5		Total loss ratio	60.5		%	55.7		%	4.8	58.1		%	54.0		%	4.1

We believe the inherent variability of aggregate loss experience for our portfolio of larger policies is greater than that of our portfolio of smaller policies, and we continue to monitor the variability in addition to general inflationary trends in loss costs. Our analysis continues to indicate no unexpected concentration of large losses and case reserve increases by risk category, geographic region, policy inception, agency or field marketing territory. The ~~first-quarter~~second-quarter 2020 property casualty total large losses incurred of ~~$76~~$79 million, net of reinsurance, were slightly lower than the $80 million quarterly average during full-year 2019 but higher than the ~~$53~~$72 million experienced for the ~~first~~second quarter of 2019. The ratio for these large losses was ~~1.4~~0.1 percentage points higher compared with last year's second quarter. The second-quarter 2020 amount of total large losses incurred contributed to the increase in the six-month 2020 total large loss ratio, compared with 2019, in addition to a first-quarter 2020 ratio that was 1.4 points higher than the first ~~quarter.~~quarter of 2019. We believe results for the ~~three-month period~~three- and six-month periods largely reflected normal fluctuations in loss patterns and normal variability in large case reserves for claims above $1 million. Losses by size are discussed in further detail in results of operations by property casualty insurance segment.

FINANCIAL RESULTS

Consolidated results reflect the operating results of each of our five segments along with the parent company, Cincinnati Re, Cincinnati Global and other activities reported as "Other." The five segments are:

•Commercial lines insurance

•Personal lines insurance

•Excess and surplus lines insurance

•Life insurance

•Investments

Cincinnati Financial Corporation Second-Quarter 2020 10-Q

Page 39

COMMERCIAL LINES INSURANCE RESULTS


(Dollars in millions)	Three months ended March 31,								(Dollars in millions)	Three months ended June 30,													Six months ended June 30,
	2020			2019			% Change			2020			2019			% Change	2020			2019			% Change
Earned premiums	$	863		$	810		7		Earned premiums	$	870		$	823		6	$	1,733		$	1,633		6
Fee revenues	1			1			0		Fee revenues	1			1			0	2			2			0
Total revenues	864			811			7		Total revenues	871			824			6	1,735			1,635			6
Loss and loss expenses from:									Loss and loss expenses from:
Current accident year before catastrophe losses	526			510			3		Current accident year before catastrophe losses	514			504			2	1,040			1,014			3
Current accident year catastrophe losses	88			33			167		Current accident year catastrophe losses	127			104			22	215			137			57
Prior accident years before catastrophe losses	(3		)	(56		)	95		Prior accident years before catastrophe losses	(39)			(50)			22	(42)			(106)			60
Prior accident years catastrophe losses	(3		)	(6		)	50		Prior accident years catastrophe losses	(6)			(8)			25	(9)			(14)			36
Loss and loss expenses	608			481			26		Loss and loss expenses	596			550			8	1,204			1,031			17
Underwriting expenses	276			254			9		Underwriting expenses	267			262			2	543			516			5
Underwriting profit (loss)	$	(20	)	$	76		nm		Underwriting profit (loss)	$	8		$	12		(33)	$	(12)		$	88		nm

Ratios as a percent of earned premiums:							Pt. Change		Ratios as a percent of earned premiums:							Pt. Change							Pt. Change
Current accident year before catastrophe losses	61.0		%	63.0		%	(2.0	)	Current accident year before catastrophe losses	58.9		%	61.2		%	(2.3)	60.0		%	62.1		%	(2.1)
Current accident year catastrophe losses	10.2			4.1			6.1		Current accident year catastrophe losses	14.6			12.7			1.9	12.4			8.4			4.0
Prior accident years before catastrophe losses	(0.3		)	(6.9		)	6.6		Prior accident years before catastrophe losses	(4.5)			(6.1)			1.6	(2.4)			(6.5)			4.1
Prior accident years catastrophe losses	(0.4		)	(0.8		)	0.4		Prior accident years catastrophe losses	(0.6)			(1.0)			0.4	(0.5)			(0.9)			0.4
Loss and loss expenses	70.5			59.4			11.1		Loss and loss expenses	68.4			66.8			1.6	69.5			63.1			6.4
Underwriting expenses	32.0			31.4			0.6		Underwriting expenses	30.7			31.8			(1.1)	31.3			31.6			(0.3)
Combined ratio	102.5		%	90.8		%	11.7		Combined ratio	99.1		%	98.6		%	0.5	100.8		%	94.7		%	6.1

Combined ratio	102.5		%	90.8		%	11.7		Combined ratio	99.1		%	98.6		%	0.5	100.8		%	94.7		%	6.1
Contribution from catastrophe losses and prior years reserve development	9.5			(3.6		)	13.1		Contribution from catastrophe losses and prior years reserve development	9.5			5.6			3.9	9.5			1.0			8.5
Combined ratio before catastrophe losses and prior years reserve development	93.0		%	94.4		%	(1.4	)	Combined ratio before catastrophe losses and prior years reserve development	89.6		%	93.0		%	(3.4)	91.3		%	93.7		%	(2.4)

Overview

~~The~~While earned premiums increased 6% for both the second quarter and first six months of 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic ~~did not have a significant effect on~~slowed the pace of net written premium growth for our commercial lines insurance ~~segment~~segment. Net written premiums grew 3% during second-quarter 2020 and 6% on a six-month basis, compared with the same periods a year ago. The rate of growth for each major line of business was less for the second quarter, compared with the first quarter of ~~2020. In the last few weeks of March~~2020, including commercial property down slightly while commercial casualty, commercial auto and the first few weeks of April, we saw a reduction in submissions from agents for us to quote premiums for policies that would be new business for us in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, we have seen early signs of a higher ratio of quoted policies that were subsequently issued for some lines of business, which somewhat offset the decrease in submissions. Regardless of future policy submission volume, newworkers' compensation each slowed by 6 percentage points or more. New business and renewal premium ~~amounts~~growth could ~~decline~~continue to slow if the basis for policy premiums, such as sales and payrolls of businesses we insure, decrease as a result of a weakened economy. ~~At this time, we~~We are not able to determine other effects of the pandemic on future periods.

Loss experience for our insurance operations is influenced by many ~~factors. We have not determined any material effect~~factors, and reinsurance such as our property catastrophe reinsurance treaty helps protect against catastrophic events. Reinsurance is discussed in our 2019 Annual Report on Form 10-K, Item 7, Liquidity and Capital Resources, 2020 Reinsurance Ceded Programs, Page 109. Aggregation of losses into one event, sometimes referred to as an hours clause, varies by peril. For example, the general provision in our property catastrophe treaty is 168 hours, but it is 120 hours for a wind event and 96 hours for a riot or civil commotion event.

The ratio for accident year 2020 loss ~~experience~~and loss expenses before catastrophe losses for our commercial lines insurance segment, measured as of June 30, improved by 2.1 percentage points in the first six months of 2020. The improvement was driven by our commercial casualty and commercial auto lines of business, while commercial property improved by less than 1 point and workers' compensation increased by 3.0 points. During the second quarter of 2020, ~~as a result~~we incurred approximately $19 million for legal expenses in defense of business interruption claims

Cincinnati Financial Corporation Second-Quarter 2020 10-Q

Page 40

for our commercial property line of business, related to the pandemic. ~~Because of~~The unfavorable change for workers' compensation reflected average percentage price changes that have decreased in the mid-single-digit range for several quarters. For future periods, factors that reduce exposure to certain insurance losses, such as fewer ~~vehicles on the road~~vehicular miles driven or reduced sales and payrolls for businesses, ~~there~~ could because a reduction in future losses that generally ~~corresponds~~correspond to reduced premiums. However, there could be losses or legal expenses that occur independent of changes in mileage, sales or payrolls of businesses we insure. ~~At this time, we~~We are not able to determine premium or loss effects for future periods.

Performance highlights for the commercial lines segment include:

•Premiums – Earned premiums and net written premiums for the commercial lines segment rose during the second quarter and first ~~quarter~~six months of 2020, compared with the same ~~period~~periods a year ago, ~~reflecting higher new business premiums and~~primarily due to renewal written premium growth that continued to include higher average pricing. The table below analyzes the primary components of premiums. We continue to use predictive analytics tools to improve pricing precision and segmentation while leveraging our local relationships with agents through the efforts of our teams that work closely with them. We seek to maintain appropriate pricing discipline for both new and renewal business as our

agents and underwriters assess account quality to make careful decisions on a case-by-case basis whether to write or renew a policy.

Agency renewal written premiums increased by 5%4% during both the second quarter and first ~~three~~six months of 2020, compared with the same ~~period~~periods of 2019. During the ~~first~~second quarter of 2020, our overall standard commercial lines policies averaged estimated renewal price increases at percentages innear the ~~low-single-digit range, higher than any quarter during 2019.~~low end of the mid-single-digit range. We continue to segment commercial lines policies, emphasizing identification and retention of policies we believe have relatively stronger pricing. Conversely, we have been seeking stricter renewal terms and conditions on policies we believe have relatively weaker pricing, thus retaining fewer of those policies. We measure average changes in commercial lines renewal pricing as the percentage rate of change in renewal premium for the new policy period compared with the premium for the expiring policy period, assuming no change in the level of insured exposures or policy coverage between those periods for the respective policies.

Our average overall commercial lines renewal pricing change includes the impact of flat pricing for certain coverages within package policies written for a three-year term that were in force but did not expire during the period being measured. Therefore, our reported change in average commercial lines renewal pricing reflects a blend of three-year policies that did not expire and other policies that did expire during the measurement period. For commercial lines policies that did expire and were then renewed during the ~~first~~second quarter of 2020, we estimate that our average percentage price increase for commercial auto was near the ~~high~~low end of the ~~mid-single-digit~~high-single-digit range. The estimated average percentage price change for our commercial property line of business was an increase in the mid-single-digit range and for commercial casualty it was also an increase in the ~~low-single-digit~~mid-single-digit range, ~~both higher than in~~improved compared with 2019. The estimated average percentage price change for workers' compensation was a decrease in the mid-single-digit range.

Renewal premiums for certain policies, primarily our commercial casualty and workers' compensation lines of business, include the results of policy audits that adjust initial premium amounts based on differences between estimated and actual sales or payroll related to a specific policy. Audits completed during the first ~~three~~six months of 2020 contributed ~~$18~~$32 million to net written premiums.

New business written premiums for commercial lines decreased by $3 million for the second quarter, but increased ~~$34~~$31 million during the first ~~three~~six months of 2020, compared with the same ~~period~~periods of 2019. The six-month increase reflected ~~growth for each major line of business in our commercial lines insurance segment and~~ a higher level of submissions from our agents requesting our quote for prospective policyholders. During the first half of the second quarter, submission volume was less than a year ago, but during the quarter's second half it was more than last year, as government restrictions eased and businesses reopened. Trend analysis for year-over-year comparisons of individual quarters is more difficult to assess for commercial lines new business written premiums, due to inherent variability. That variability is often driven by larger policies with annual premiums greater than $100,000.

Other written premiums include premiums ceded to reinsurers as part of our reinsurance ceded program. For our commercial lines insurance segment, ~~an increase in~~decreased ceded premiums ~~reduced~~increased net written premiums by $1$3 million and $2 million for the second quarter and first ~~quarter~~six months of 2020, compared with the same ~~period~~periods of 2019.

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Page 41

Commercial Lines Insurance Premiums


(Dollars in millions)	Three months ended March 31,								(Dollars in millions)	Three months ended June 30,									Six months ended June 30,
	2020			2019			% Change			2020		2019		% Change	2020		2019		% Change
Agency renewal written premiums	$	842		$	799		5		Agency renewal written premiums	$	794	$	767	4	$	1,636	$	1,566	4
Agency new business written premiums	154			120			28		Agency new business written premiums	134		137		(2)	288		257		12
Other written premiums	(24		)	(23		)	(4	)	Other written premiums	(20)		(25)		20	(44)		(48)		8
Net written premiums	972			896			8		Net written premiums	908		879		3	1,880		1,775		6
Unearned premium change	(109		)	(86		)	(27	)	Unearned premium change	(38)		(56)		32	(147)		(142)		(4)
Earned premiums	$	863		$	810		7		Earned premiums	$	870	$	823	6	$	1,733	$	1,633	6

•Combined ratio – The commercial lines ~~first-quarter~~second-quarter 2020 combined ratio increased by ~~11.7~~0.5 percentage points, compared with the same period a year ago, including an increase of ~~6.5~~2.3 points in losses from ~~natural~~catastrophes. For the first six months of 2020, the combined ratio increased by 6.1 percentage points, compared with the same period a year ago, in part due to an increase of 4.4 points in losses from catastrophes. Underwriting results for both periods included better loss experience for the ~~three-month period included~~current accident year but a lower level of favorable reserve development on prior accident ~~years that offset better loss experience for the current accident year.~~years.

The current accident year loss and loss expenses before catastrophe losses ratio for commercial lines improved in the first ~~three~~six months of 2020. That ~~61.0%~~60.0% ratio was ~~2.0~~2.1 percentage points lower, compared with

the ~~63.0%~~62.1% accident year 2019 ratio measured as of ~~March 31,~~June 30, 2019, including an increase of ~~0.8~~0.7 percentage points in the ratio for large losses of $1 million or more per claim, discussed below.

Catastrophe losses and loss expenses accounted for ~~9.8~~14.0 and 11.9 percentage points of the combined ratio for the second quarter and first ~~quarter~~six months of 2020, compared with ~~3.3~~11.7 and 7.5 percentage points for the same ~~period~~periods a year ago. Through 2019, the 10-year annual average for that catastrophe measure for the commercial lines segment was 5.2 percentage points, and the five-year annual average was 5.5 percentage points.

The net effect of reserve development on prior accident years during the second quarter and first ~~quarter~~six months of 2020 was favorable for commercial lines overall by $6$45 million and $51 million, compared with ~~$62~~$58 million and $120 million for the same ~~period~~periods in 2019. For the first ~~three~~six months of 2020, our commercial casualty and workers' compensation lines of business ~~were~~accounted for nearly all of the ~~largest contributors to the total~~ commercial lines net favorable reserve development on prior accident ~~years.~~years, each representing approximately half of the total. The net favorable reserve development recognized during the first ~~three~~six months of 2020 for our commercial lines insurance segment was primarily for accident years 2019 and 2018 and was primarily due to lower-than-anticipated loss emergence on known claims. Reserve estimates are inherently uncertain as described in our 2019 Annual Report on Form 10-K, Item 7, Critical Accounting Estimates, Property Casualty Insurance Loss and Loss Expense Reserves, Page 56.

The commercial lines underwriting expense ratio ~~increased~~decreased for the second quarter and first ~~quarter~~six months of 2020, compared with the same period a year ago, largely due to ~~higher employee-related expenses and premium taxes. The ratio also reflects~~ ongoing expense management efforts and higher earned premiums.

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Page 42

Commercial Lines Insurance Losses Incurred by Size


(Dollars in millions, net of reinsurance)	Three months ended June 30,													Six months ended June 30,
	2020			2019			% Change	2020			2019			% Change
Current accident year losses greater than $5 million	$	19		$	14		36	$	19		$	14		36
Current accident year losses $1 million - $5 million	45			41			10	81			68			19
Large loss prior accident year reserve development	5			3			67	27			16			69
Total large losses incurred	69			58			19	127			98			30
Losses incurred but not reported	72			(7)			nm	130			36			261
Other losses excluding catastrophe losses	233			320			(27)	531			605			(12)
Catastrophe losses	119			94			27	201			119			69
Total losses incurred	$	493		$	465		6	$	989		$	858		15

Ratios as a percent of earned premiums:							Pt. Change							Pt. Change
Current accident year losses greater than $5 million	2.2		%	1.7		%	0.5	1.1		%	0.9		%	0.2
Current accident year losses $1 million - $5 million	5.1			5.0			0.1	4.6			4.1			0.5
Large loss prior accident year reserve development	0.6			0.4			0.2	1.6			1.0			0.6
Total large loss ratio	7.9			7.1			0.8	7.3			6.0			1.3
Losses incurred but not reported	8.3			(0.9)			9.2	7.5			2.2			5.3
Other losses excluding catastrophe losses	26.8			38.9			(12.1)	30.7			37.0			(6.3)
Catastrophe losses	13.6			11.4			2.2	11.6			7.3			4.3
Total loss ratio	56.6		%	56.5		%	0.1	57.1		%	52.5		%	4.6

(Dollars in millions, net of reinsurance) Three months ended March 31,
2020 2019 % Change
Current accident year losses greater than $5 million $ —
$ —
nm
Current accident year losses $1 million - $5 million 36
26
38
Large loss prior accident year reserve development 22
13
69
Total large losses incurred 58
39
49
Losses incurred but not reported 58
43
35
Other losses excluding catastrophe losses 298
286
4
Catastrophe losses 82
25
228
Total losses incurred $ 496
$ 393
26

Ratios as a percent of earned premiums: Pt. Change
Current accident year losses greater than $5 million — % — % —
Current accident year losses $1 million - $5 million 4.1
3.3
0.8
Large loss prior accident year reserve development 2.6
1.6
1.0
Total large loss ratio 6.7
4.9
1.8
Losses incurred but not reported 6.8
5.4
1.4
Other losses excluding catastrophe losses 34.5
35.1
(0.6 )
Catastrophe losses 9.5
3.1
6.4
Total loss ratio 57.5 % 48.5 % 9.0

We continue to monitor new losses and case reserve increases greater than $1 million for trends in factors such as initial reserve levels, loss cost inflation and claim settlement expenses. Our analysis continues to indicate no unexpected concentration of these large losses and case reserve increases by risk category, geographic region, policy inception, agency or field marketing territory. The ~~first-quarter~~second-quarter 2020 commercial lines total large losses incurred of ~~$58~~$69 million, net of reinsurance, were ~~lower~~higher than the quarterly average of $65 million during full-year 2019 ~~but~~and higher than the ~~$39~~$58 million of total large losses incurred for the ~~first~~second quarter of 2019. The increase in commercial lines large losses for the first ~~three~~six months of 2020 was primarily due to our commercial property and commercial casualty ~~line~~lines of business. The ~~first-quarter~~second-quarter 2020 ratio for commercial lines total large losses was ~~1.8~~0.8 percentage points higher than last year's second-quarter ratio. The second-quarter 2020 amount of total large losses incurred contributed to the increase in the six-month 2020 total large loss ratio, compared with 2019, in addition to a first-quarter ~~ratio.~~2020 ratio that was 1.8 points higher than the first quarter of 2019. We believe results for the ~~three-month period~~three- and six-month periods largely reflected normal fluctuations in loss patterns and normal variability in large case reserves for claims above $1 million.

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PERSONAL LINES INSURANCE RESULTS


(Dollars in millions)	Three months ended June 30,													Six months ended June 30,
	2020			2019			% Change	2020			2019			% Change
Earned premiums	$	364		$	348		5	$	723		$	692		4
Fee revenues	1			1			0	2			2			0
Total revenues	365			349			5	725			694			4
Loss and loss expenses from:
Current accident year before catastrophe losses	194			216			(10)	410			425			(4)
Current accident year catastrophe losses	92			38			142	135			76			78
Prior accident years before catastrophe losses	—			(11)			nm	(23)			(16)			(44)
Prior accident years catastrophe losses	—			(3)			nm	(5)			5			nm
Loss and loss expenses	286			240			19	517			490			6
Underwriting expenses	122			104			17	230			203			13
Underwriting profit (loss)	$	(43)		$	5		nm	$	(22)		$	1		nm

Ratios as a percent of earned premiums:							Pt. Change							Pt. Change
Current accident year before catastrophe losses	53.8		%	62.1		%	(8.3)	56.9		%	61.4		%	(4.5)
Current accident year catastrophe losses	25.3			11.0			14.3	18.7			10.9			7.8
Prior accident years before catastrophe losses	0.0			(3.2)			3.2	(3.2)			(2.3)			(0.9)
Prior accident years catastrophe losses	(0.2)			(1.0)			0.8	(0.8)			0.7			(1.5)
Loss and loss expenses	78.9			68.9			10.0	71.6			70.7			0.9
Underwriting expenses	33.4			30.0			3.4	31.8			29.4			2.4
Combined ratio	112.3		%	98.9		%	13.4	103.4		%	100.1		%	3.3

Combined ratio	112.3		%	98.9		%	13.4	103.4		%	100.1		%	3.3
Contribution from catastrophe losses and prior years reserve development	25.1			6.8			18.3	14.7			9.3			5.4
Combined ratio before catastrophe losses and prior years reserve development	87.2		%	92.1		%	(4.9)	88.7		%	90.8		%	(2.1)

(Dollars in millions) Three months ended March 31,
2020 2019 % Change
Earned premiums $ 359
$ 344
4
Fee revenues 1
1
0
Total revenues 360
345
4
Loss and loss expenses from:

Current accident year before catastrophe losses 216
209
3
Current accident year catastrophe losses 43
38
13
Prior accident years before catastrophe losses (23 ) (5 ) (360 )
Prior accident years catastrophe losses (5 ) 8
nm
Loss and loss expenses 231
250
(8 )
Underwriting expenses 108
99
9
Underwriting profit (loss) $ 21
$ (4 ) nm

Ratios as a percent of earned premiums: Pt. Change
Current accident year before catastrophe losses 60.0 % 60.6 % (0.6 )
Current accident year catastrophe losses 12.0
10.9
1.1
Prior accident years before catastrophe losses (6.5 ) (1.4 ) (5.1 )
Prior accident years catastrophe losses (1.3 ) 2.4
(3.7 )
Loss and loss expenses 64.2
72.5
(8.3 )
Underwriting expenses 30.1
28.8
1.3
Combined ratio 94.3 % 101.3 % (7.0 )

Combined ratio 94.3 % 101.3 % (7.0 )
Contribution from catastrophe losses and prior years reserve development 4.2
11.9
(7.7 )
Combined ratio before catastrophe losses and prior years reserve development 90.1 % 89.4 % 0.7

Overview

The COVID-19 pandemic did not have a significant effect on our personal lines insurance segment premiums for the second quarter or first six months of 2020. Net written premiums grew 5% during second-quarter 2020, following growth of 3% for the first quarter of ~~2020. In the last few weeks of March~~2020 and 4% for full-year 2019. For the first ~~few weeks~~six months of ~~April, we saw a reduction in~~2020, net written premiums grew 4%, compared with 5% for the first half of 2019. New business written premiums are largely driven by submissions from agents for us to quote premiums for ~~policies that would be new business for us in~~policies. During the first half of the second quarter, ~~of 2020.~~submission volume was less than a year ago, but during the quarter's second half it was more than last year, as stay-at-home restrictions eased. Early in the second quarter of 2020, we announced a 15% policyholder credit applied to each personal auto policy for the months of April and May, ~~for an estimated aggregate amount~~resulting in approximately $16 million of ~~$16 million. At this time, we~~underwriting expense that added 4.2 percentage points to the second-quarter personal lines underwriting expense ratio. We are not able to determine other effects of the pandemic on future periods.

Loss experience for our insurance operations is influenced by many factors. ~~We have not determined any material effect on our~~During the second quarter of 2020, loss experience for ~~the first quarter~~our personal auto line of ~~2020~~business improved, largely due to a reduction in personal auto reported claims as a result of reduced driving related to the pandemic. Because of factors that reduce exposure to certain insurance losses, there could be a reduction in future losses that generally corresponds to reduced premiums. ~~For example, we saw a reduction in personal auto reported claims as a result of reduced driving in late March and early April.~~ However, there could be losses or legal expenses that occur independent of changes in miles driven for autos we insure. ~~At this time, we~~We are not able to determine premium or loss effects for future periods.

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Performance highlights for the personal lines segment include:

•Premiums – Personal lines earned premiums and net written premiums continued to grow during the second quarter and first ~~quarter~~six months of 2020, driven by increases in agency renewal written premiums reflecting higher average pricing. Personal lines net written premiums from high net worth policies totaled approximately ~~$101~~$144 million and $246 million for the second quarter and first ~~quarter~~six months of 2020, compared with ~~$77~~$116 million and $193 million for the same ~~period~~periods of 2019. The table below analyzes the primary components of premiums.

Agency renewal written premiums increased 4%6% for the second quarter of 2020, and 5% for the first ~~quarter~~six months of ~~2020,~~the year, largely due to rate increases in select states. We estimate that premium rates for our personal auto line of business increased at average percentages in the mid-single-digit range during the first ~~three~~six months of 2020. For our homeowner line of business, we estimate that premium rates for the first ~~three~~six months of 2020 increased at average percentages in the mid-single-digit range, higher than in 2019. For both our personal auto and homeowner lines of business, some individual policies experienced lower or higher rate changes based on each risk's specific characteristics and enhanced pricing precision enabled by predictive models.

Personal lines new business written premiums decreased ~~by 3%~~6% during the second quarter and 5% during the first ~~three~~six months of 2020, compared with the same ~~period~~periods of ~~2019, reflecting~~2019. In addition to effects of underwriting and pricing discipline in recent quarters, particularly in select ~~states.~~states, the volume of new business submissions from agents for us to quote premiums for policies slowed further during the first half of the second quarter. In the second half of the second quarter, volume increased compared with the same period a year ago.

Other written premiums include premiums ceded to reinsurers as part of our reinsurance ceded program. For our personal lines insurance segment, ~~an increase~~a decrease in ceded premiums ~~reduced~~increased net written premiums by ~~less than~~$2 million and $1 million for the second quarter and first ~~quarter~~six months of 2020, compared with the same ~~period~~periods of 2019.

We continue to implement strategies discussed in our 2019 Annual Report on Form 10-K, Item 1, Strategic Initiatives, Page 15, to enhance our responsiveness to marketplace changes and to help achieve our long-term objectives for personal lines growth and profitability. These strategies include initiatives to more profitably underwrite homeowner policies.

Personal Lines Insurance Premiums


(Dollars in millions)	Three months ended March 31,								(Dollars in millions)	Three months ended June 30,									Six months ended June 30,
	2020			2019			% Change			2020		2019		% Change	2020		2019		% Change
Agency renewal written premiums	$	294		$	282		4		Agency renewal written premiums	$	387	$	365	6	$	681	$	647	5
Agency new business written premiums	34			35			(3	)	Agency new business written premiums	44		47		(6)	78		82		(5)
Other written premiums	(9		)	(8		)	(13	)	Other written premiums	(8)		(10)		20	(17)		(18)		6
Net written premiums	319			309			3		Net written premiums	423		402		5	742		711		4
Unearned premium change	40			35			14		Unearned premium change	(59)		(54)		(9)	(19)		(19)		0
Earned premiums	$	359		$	344		4		Earned premiums	$	364	$	348	5	$	723	$	692	4

•Combined ratio – Our personal lines combined ratio ~~improved~~increased by 13.4 percentage points for the ~~first~~second quarter of 2020, and 3.3 points for the six-month period, compared with the same ~~period~~periods a year ago. ~~The first-quarter improvement reflected better~~Offsetting improved experience in the ~~ratio~~ratios for current accident year loss and loss expenses before catastrophe losses, the catastrophe loss ratio rose by 15.1 percentage points for the second quarter and ~~favorable reserve development on prior accident years.~~6.3 points for the first half of 2020.

The current accident year loss and loss expenses before catastrophe losses ratio for personal lines improved in the first ~~three~~six months of 2020. That ~~60.0%~~56.9% ratio was ~~0.6~~4.5 percentage points lower, compared with the ~~60.6%~~61.4% accident year 2019 ratio measured as of ~~March 31,~~June 30, 2019, including an increase of ~~0.7~~0.1 percentage points in the ratio for large losses of $1 million or more per claim, discussed below.

Catastrophe losses and loss expenses accounted for ~~10.7~~25.1 and 17.9 percentage points of the combined ratio for the second quarter and first ~~quarter~~six months of 2020, compared with ~~13.3~~10.0 and 11.6 percentage points for the same ~~period~~periods of last year. The 10-year annual average catastrophe loss ratio for the personal lines segment through 2019 was ~~10.1~~10.4 percentage points, and the five-year annual average was ~~10.5~~9.3 percentage points.

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In addition to the average rate increases discussed above, we continue to refine our pricing to better match premiums to the risk of loss on individual policies. Improved pricing precision and broad-based rate increases are expected to help position the combined ratio at a profitable level over the long term. In addition, greater geographic diversification is expected to reduce the volatility of homeowner loss ratios attributable to weather-related catastrophe losses over time.

Our homeowner line of business, representing 43% of our 2019 personal lines earned premiums, was the only major line in this segment with a first-quarter 2020 total loss and loss expense ratio before catastrophe losses significantly higher than we desired, although it improved compared with the prior-year period. In recent quarters, our homeowner policies have experienced average renewal price increases at percentages in the mid-single-digit range. We believe rate increases and other actions to improve pricing precision and reduce loss costs will improve future profitability.

The net effect of reserve development on prior accident years during the second quarter and first ~~quarter~~six months of 2020 was favorable for personal lines overall by less than $1 million and $28 million, respectively, compared with $3$14 million ~~of unfavorable net reserve development~~and $11 million for the ~~first three months~~same periods of 2019. Our ~~homeowner~~personal auto and ~~personal auto~~homeowner lines of business were the largest contributors to the ~~2020 total~~ personal lines net favorable reserve development on prior accident ~~years.~~years for the first six months of 2020. The net favorable reserve development was primarily due to lower-than-anticipated loss emergence on known claims. Reserve estimates are inherently uncertain as described in our 2019 Annual Report on Form 10-K, Item 7, Critical Accounting Estimates, Property Casualty Insurance Loss and Loss Expense Reserves, Page 56.

The underwriting expense ratio increased for the second quarter and first ~~quarter~~six months of 2020, compared with the same ~~period~~periods a year ago, largely due ~~higher employee-related expenses~~to the 15% policyholder credit applied to each personal auto policy for the months of April and ~~premium taxes.~~May 2020. The ratio also reflects ongoing expense management efforts and higher earned premiums.

Personal Lines Insurance Losses Incurred by Size


(Dollars in millions, net of reinsurance)	Three months ended June 30,													Six months ended June 30,
	2020			2019			% Change	2020			2019			% Change
Current accident year losses greater than $5 million	$	—		$	—		nm	$	—		$	—		nm
Current accident year losses $1 million - $5 million	8			10			(20)	20			19			5
Large loss prior accident year reserve development	2			1			100	7			3			133
Total large losses incurred	10			11			(9)	27			22			23
Losses incurred but not reported	41			(4)			nm	65			—			nm
Other losses excluding catastrophe losses	105			167			(37)	232			330			(30)
Catastrophe losses	89			34			162	127			79			61
Total losses incurred	$	245		$	208		18	$	451		$	431		5

Ratios as a percent of earned premiums:							Pt. Change							Pt. Change
Current accident year losses greater than $5 million	—		%	—		%	0.0	—		%	—		%	0.0
Current accident year losses $1 million - $5 million	2.3			2.8			(0.5)	2.9			2.8			0.1
Large loss prior accident year reserve development	0.5			0.3			0.2	0.9			0.4			0.5
Total large loss ratio	2.8			3.1			(0.3)	3.8			3.2			0.6
Losses incurred but not reported	11.3			(1.1)			12.4	8.9			(0.1)			9.0
Other losses excluding catastrophe losses	28.8			48.0			(19.2)	32.2			47.8			(15.6)
Catastrophe losses	24.6			9.7			14.9	17.5			11.4			6.1
Total loss ratio	67.5		%	59.7		%	7.8	62.4		%	62.3		%	0.1

(Dollars in millions, net of reinsurance) Three months ended March 31,
2020 2019 % Change
Current accident year losses greater than $5 million $ —
$ —
nm
Current accident year losses $1 million - $5 million 12
10
20
Large loss prior accident year reserve development 5
2
150
Total large losses incurred 17
12
42
Losses incurred but not reported 24
4
500
Other losses excluding catastrophe losses 127
163
(22 )
Catastrophe losses 38
45
(16 )
Total losses incurred $ 206
$ 224
(8 )

Ratios as a percent of earned premiums: Pt. Change
Current accident year losses greater than $5 million — % — % 0.0
Current accident year losses $1 million - $5 million 3.5
2.8
0.7
Large loss prior accident year reserve development 1.3
0.6
0.7
Total large loss ratio 4.8
3.4
1.4
Losses incurred but not reported 6.6
1.0
5.6
Other losses excluding catastrophe losses 35.3
47.4
(12.1 )
Catastrophe losses 10.5
13.1
(2.6 )
Total loss ratio 57.2 % 64.9 % (7.7 )

We continue to monitor new losses and case reserve increases greater than $1 million for trends in factors such as initial reserve levels, loss cost inflation and claim settlement expenses. Our analysis continues to indicate no unexpected concentration of these large losses and case reserve increases by risk category, geographic region, policy inception, agency or field marketing territory. In the ~~first~~second quarter of 2020, the personal lines total large loss ratio, net of reinsurance, was ~~1.4~~0.3 percentage points ~~higher~~lower than last year's ~~first~~second quarter. The increase in personal lines large losses for the first ~~three~~six months of 2020 occurred primarily for umbrella coverage in our other personal line of business. The second-quarter 2020 amount of total large losses incurred favorably contributed to the increase in the six-month 2020 total large loss ratio, compared with 2019, as it partially offset a first-quarter 2020 ratio that was 1.4 points higher than the first quarter of 2019. We believe results for the ~~three-month period~~three- and six-month periods largely reflected normal fluctuations in loss patterns and normal variability in large case reserves for claims above $1 million.

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EXCESS AND SURPLUS LINES INSURANCE RESULTS


(Dollars in millions)	Three months ended March 31,								(Dollars in millions)	Three months ended June 30,													Six months ended June 30,
	2020			2019			% Change			2020			2019			% Change	2020			2019			% Change
Earned premiums	$	78		$	63		24		Earned premiums	$	78		$	67		16	$	156		$	130		20
Fee revenues	1			1			0		Fee revenues	—			—			0	1			1			0
Total revenues	79			64			23		Total revenues	78			67			16	157			131			20

Loss and loss expenses from:									Loss and loss expenses from:
Current accident year before catastrophe losses	44			35			26		Current accident year before catastrophe losses	46			34			35	90			69			30
Current accident year catastrophe losses	—			—			0		Current accident year catastrophe losses	3			—			nm	3			—			nm
Prior accident years before catastrophe losses	1			(2		)	nm		Prior accident years before catastrophe losses	8			(5)			nm	9			(7)			nm
Prior accident years catastrophe losses	—			—			0		Prior accident years catastrophe losses	—			—			0	—			—			0
Loss and loss expenses	45			33			36		Loss and loss expenses	57			29			97	102			62			65
Underwriting expenses	25			20			25		Underwriting expenses	22			21			5	47			41			15
Underwriting profit	$	9		$	11		(18	)
Underwriting profit (loss)									Underwriting profit (loss)	$	(1)		$	17		nm	$	8		$	28		(71)

Ratios as a percent of earned premiums:							Pt. Change		Ratios as a percent of earned premiums:							Pt. Change							Pt. Change
Current accident year before catastrophe losses	55.7		%	55.5		%	0.2		Current accident year before catastrophe losses	59.0		%	50.8		%	8.2	57.4		%	53.1		%	4.3
Current accident year catastrophe losses	0.5			0.3			0.2		Current accident year catastrophe losses	3.6			0.7			2.9	2.0			0.5			1.5
Prior accident years before catastrophe losses	0.7			(4.2		)	4.9		Prior accident years before catastrophe losses	11.2			(6.2)			17.4	5.9			(5.2)			11.1
Prior accident years catastrophe losses	0.5			(0.1		)	0.6		Prior accident years catastrophe losses	(0.2)			(0.2)			0.0	0.2			(0.1)			0.3
Loss and loss expenses	57.4			51.5			5.9		Loss and loss expenses	73.6			45.1			28.5	65.5			48.3			17.2
Underwriting expenses	31.7			32.0			(0.3	)	Underwriting expenses	28.4			31.0			(2.6)	30.0			31.4			(1.4)
Combined ratio	89.1		%	83.5		%	5.6		Combined ratio	102.0		%	76.1		%	25.9	95.5		%	79.7		%	15.8

Combined ratio	89.1		%	83.5		%	5.6		Combined ratio	102.0		%	76.1		%	25.9	95.5		%	79.7		%	15.8
Contribution from catastrophe losses and prior years reserve development	1.7			(4.0		)	5.7		Contribution from catastrophe losses and prior years reserve development	14.6			(5.7)			20.3	8.1			(4.8)			12.9
Combined ratio before catastrophe losses and prior years reserve development	87.4		%	87.5		%	(0.1	)	Combined ratio before catastrophe losses and prior years reserve development	87.4		%	81.8		%	5.6	87.4		%	84.5		%	2.9

Overview

The COVID-19 pandemic did not have a significant effect on our excess and surplus lines insurance segment premiums for the first quarter of 2020. In the last few weeks of March and the first few weeks of April, we saw a reduction in submissions from agents for us to quote premiums for policies that would be new business for us induring the second quarter or first six months of 2020. ~~Regardless~~For most of ~~future policy~~the six-month period, we experienced a higher level of submissions from our agents requesting our quote for prospective policyholders, compared with the same period of 2019. During the first half of the second quarter, submission volume ~~new business~~was less than a year ago, but during the quarter's second half it was more than last year, as government restrictions eased and ~~renewal premium amounts could decline if the basis for policy premiums, such as sales and payrolls of~~ businesses ~~we insure, decrease as a result of a weakened economy. At this time, we~~reopened. We are not able to determine other effects of the pandemic on future periods.

Loss experience for our insurance operations is influenced by many factors. We have not determined any material effect on our loss experience for the second quarter or first ~~quarter~~six months of 2020 as a result of the pandemic. Because of factors that reduce exposure to certain insurance losses, such as reduced sales for businesses, there could be a reduction in future losses that generally corresponds to reduced premiums. However, there could be losses or legal expenses that occur independent of changes in sales of businesses we insure. ~~At this time, we~~We are not able to determine premium or loss effects for future periods.

Performance highlights for the excess and surplus lines segment include:

•Premiums – Excess and surplus lines net written premiums continued to grow during the second quarter and first ~~quarter~~six months of 2020, compared with the same ~~period~~periods a year ago, primarily due to an increase in agency renewal written premiums. Renewal written premiums rose ~~27%~~21% for the ~~three~~six months ended ~~March 31,~~June 30, 2020, compared with the same period of 2019, reflecting the opportunity to renew many accounts for the first time, as well as higher renewal pricing. For the first ~~three~~six months of 2020, excess and surplus lines policy renewals experienced estimated average price increases at percentages in the mid-single-digit range. We measure

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average changes in excess

and surplus lines renewal pricing as the percentage rate of change in renewal premium for the new policy period compared with the premium for the expiring policy period, assuming no change in the level of insured exposures or policy coverage between those periods for respective policies.

New business written premiums produced by agencies increased by $1$4 million and $5 million for the second quarter and first ~~three~~six months of 2020, compared with the same ~~period~~periods of 2019, as we continued to carefully underwrite each policy in a highly competitive market. Some of what we report as new business came from accounts that were not new to our agents. We believe our agents' seasoned accounts tend to be priced more accurately than business that may be less familiar to them.

Excess and Surplus Lines Insurance Premiums


(Dollars in millions)	Three months ended March 31,							(Dollars in millions)	Three months ended June 30,									Six months ended June 30,
	2020			2019			% Change		2020		2019		% Change	2020		2019		% Change
Agency renewal written premiums	$	62		$	49		27	Agency renewal written premiums	$	63	$	54	17	$	125	$	103	21
Agency new business written premiums	27			26			4	Agency new business written premiums	32		28		14	59		54		9
Other written premiums	(4		)	(4		)	0	Other written premiums	(4)		(4)		0	(8)		(8)		0
Net written premiums	85			71			20	Net written premiums	91		78		17	176		149		18
Unearned premium change	(7		)	(8		)	13	Unearned premium change	(13)		(11)		(18)	(20)		(19)		(5)
Earned premiums	$	78		$	63		24	Earned premiums	$	78	$	67	16	$	156	$	130	20

•Combined ratio – The excess and surplus lines combined ratio increased by ~~5.6~~25.9 and 15.8 percentage points for the second quarter and first ~~quarter~~six months of 2020, compared with the same ~~period~~periods of 2019. The increase was ~~primarily~~largely due to less favorable reserve development on prior accident ~~years.~~years, while the current accident year result also increased. Those increases reflect more prudent reserving, as claims on average are remaining open longer than previously expected. The IBNR portion of the total loss and loss expense ratio before catastrophe losses was 14.6 percentage points higher for the first six months of 2020, compared with the same period a year ago, while both the paid and case incurred portions were approximately 1 point higher.

The current accident year loss and loss expenses before catastrophe losses ratio for excess and surplus lines increased ~~slightly~~ in the first ~~three~~six months of 2020. That ~~55.7%~~57.4% ratio was ~~0.2~~4.3 percentage points higher, compared with the ~~55.5%~~53.1% accident year 2019 ratio measured as of ~~March 31,~~June 30, 2019, including ~~an increase~~a decrease of ~~1.0~~1.1 percentage ~~point~~points in the ratio for large losses of $1 million or more per claim, discussed below. The paid portion of the 4.3 percentage point increase was up 0.2 points, the case incurred portion was down 3.7 points and the IBNR portion was up 8.0 points.

Excess and surplus lines net reserve development on prior accident years, as a ratio to earned premiums, was an unfavorable ~~1.2%~~11.0% and 6.1% for the second quarter and first ~~quarter~~six months of 2020, compared with favorable net reserve development of ~~4.3%~~6.4% and 5.3% for the same ~~period~~periods of 2019. The ~~2020~~$9 million of net unfavorable reserve development recognized during the first ~~three~~six months of 2020 ~~was due~~included $11 million for accident years prior to ~~an unfavorable 2.9% ratio for defense and cost containment expenses, which was 3.2 percentage points higher~~2017, as claims on average are remaining open longer than ~~the same period in 2019, including 2.8 points for IBNR reserves and 0.4 points for the paid portion of those expenses.~~previously expected. Reserve estimates are inherently uncertain as described in our 2019 Annual Report on Form 10-K, Item 7, Critical Accounting Estimates, Property Casualty Insurance Loss and Loss Expense Reserves, Page 56.

The excess and surplus lines underwriting expense ratio for the second quarter and first ~~quarter~~six months of 2020 decreased, compared with the same ~~period~~periods of 2019, ~~as we continued~~reflecting a lower level of profit-sharing commissions for agencies in addition to ~~see~~ higher earned premiums and ongoing expense management efforts.

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Excess and Surplus Lines Insurance Losses Incurred by Size


(Dollars in millions, net of reinsurance)	Three months ended March 31,								(Dollars in millions, net of reinsurance)	Three months ended June 30,													Six months ended June 30,
	2020			2019			% Change			2020			2019			% Change	2020			2019			% Change
Current accident year losses greater than $5 million	$	—		$	—		nm		Current accident year losses greater than $5 million	$	—		$	—		nm	$	—		$	—		nm
Current accident year losses $1 million - $5 million	2			1			100		Current accident year losses $1 million - $5 million	—			2			(100)	2			3			(33)
Large loss prior accident year reserve development	(1		)	1			nm		Large loss prior accident year reserve development	—			1			(100)	(1)			2			nm
Total large losses incurred	1			2			(50	)	Total large losses incurred	—			3			(100)	1			5			(80)
Losses incurred but not reported	(3		)	—			nm		Losses incurred but not reported	21			(3)			nm	18			(3)			nm
Other losses excluding catastrophe losses	29			19			53		Other losses excluding catastrophe losses	20			18			11	50			36			39
Catastrophe losses	1			—			nm		Catastrophe losses	3			—			nm	3			1			200
Total losses incurred	$	28		$	21		33		Total losses incurred	$	44		$	18		144	$	72		$	39		85

Ratios as a percent of earned premiums:							Pt. Change		Ratios as a percent of earned premiums:							Pt. Change							Pt. Change
Current accident year losses greater than $5 million	—		%	—		%	0.0		Current accident year losses greater than $5 million	—		%	—		%	0.0	—		%	—		%	0.0
Current accident year losses $1 million - $5 million	2.6			1.6			1.0		Current accident year losses $1 million - $5 million	—			3.0			(3.0)	1.3			2.4			(1.1)
Large loss prior accident year reserve development	(1.5		)	1.2			(2.7	)	Large loss prior accident year reserve development	0.1			1.5			(1.4)	(0.7)			1.3			(2.0)
Total large loss ratio	1.1			2.8			(1.7	)	Total large loss ratio	0.1			4.5			(4.4)	0.6			3.7			(3.1)
Losses incurred but not reported	(4.4		)	0.8			(5.2	)	Losses incurred but not reported	27.2			(4.5)			31.7	11.3			(1.9)			13.2
Other losses excluding catastrophe losses	37.8			29.1			8.7		Other losses excluding catastrophe losses	25.8			26.7			(0.9)	31.9			27.9			4.0
Catastrophe losses	0.9			0.2			0.7		Catastrophe losses	3.3			0.5			2.8	2.1			0.3			1.8
Total loss ratio	35.4		%	32.9		%	2.5		Total loss ratio	56.4		%	27.2		%	29.2	45.9		%	30.0		%	15.9

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LIFE INSURANCE RESULTS


(Dollars in millions)	Three months ended March 31,								(Dollars in millions)	Three months ended June 30,									Six months ended June 30,
	2020			2019			% Change			2020		2019		% Change	2020		2019		% Change
Earned premiums	$	67		$	66		2		Earned premiums	$	79	$	67	18	$	146	$	133	10
Fee revenues	—			1			(100	)	Fee revenues	1		1		0	1		2		(50)
Total revenues	67			67			0		Total revenues	80		68		18	147		135		9
Contract holders' benefits incurred	73			70			4		Contract holders' benefits incurred	79		73		8	152		143		6
Investment interest credited to contract holders'	(26		)	(24		)	(8	)
Investment interest credited to contract holders									Investment interest credited to contract holders	(25)		(25)		0	(51)		(49)		(4)
Underwriting expenses incurred	18			22			(18	)	Underwriting expenses incurred	25		22		14	43		44		(2)
Total benefits and expenses	65			68			(4	)	Total benefits and expenses	79		70		13	144		138		4
Life insurance segment profit (loss)	$	2		$	(1	)	nm		Life insurance segment profit (loss)	$	1	$	(2)	nm	$	3	$	(3)	nm

Overview

The COVID-19 pandemic did not have a significant effect on our life insurance segment earned premiums, benefits or expenses for the first ~~quarter~~six months of 2020. However, higher rates of unemployment related to the pandemic could meaningfully decrease premiums of our life insurance products and cause an increase in policy surrender ~~activity.~~activity in future periods. Specifically, growth in worksite premiums, which originate from enrollments at the workplace, ~~will be negatively impacted~~slowed to a small extent in the second quarter of 2020, and could continue to slow in the future, ~~periods as~~due to curtailed enrollment ~~activity has been curtailed. At this time, we~~activity. We are not able to determine other premium, benefit or expense effects for future ~~periods, but~~periods. It is also possible we may experience higher than projected future death claims due to the pandemic.

Performance highlights for the life insurance segment include:

•Revenues – Revenues increased for the ~~three~~six months ended ~~March 31,~~June 30, 2020, compared with the same period a year ago, ~~primarily due to~~with higher earned premiums from term life insurance, our largest life insurance product ~~line.~~line, the largest contributor to the increase.

Net in-force life insurance policy face amounts increased to ~~$71.044~~$72.188 billion at ~~March 31,~~June 30, 2020, from $69.984 billion at year-end 2019.

Fixed annuity deposits received for the three and six months ended ~~March 31,~~June 30, 2020, were ~~$11~~$13 million and $24 million, compared with $7$13 million and $20 million for the same ~~period~~periods of 2019. Fixed annuity deposits have a minimal impact to earned premiums because deposits received are initially recorded as liabilities. Profit is earned over time by way of interest-rate spreads. We do not write variable or equity-indexed annuities.

Life Insurance Premiums


(Dollars in millions)	Three months ended March 31,						(Dollars in millions)	Three months ended June 30,									Six months ended June 30,
	2020		2019		% Change			2020		2019		% Change	2020		2019		% Change
Term life insurance	$	47	$	45	4		Term life insurance	$	51	$	47	9	$	98	$	92	7
Universal life insurance	8		10		(20	)	Universal life insurance	16		10		60	24		20		20
Other life insurance and annuity products	12		11		9		Other life insurance and annuity products	12		10		20	24		21		14
Net earned premiums	$	67	$	66	2		Net earned premiums	$	79	$	67	18	$	146	$	133	10

•Profitability – Our life insurance segment typically reports a small profit or loss on a GAAP basis because profits from investment income spreads are included in our investment segment results. We include only investment income credited to contract holders (including interest assumed in life insurance policy reserve calculations) in our life insurance segment results. A profit of $2$3 million for our life insurance segment in the first ~~three~~six months of 2020, compared with a loss of $1$3 million for the same period of 2019, was primarily due to higher earned premiums and improved mortality ~~results.~~results, partially offset by the less favorable effects of the unlocking of interest rate and other actuarial assumptions.

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Life insurance segment benefits and expenses consist principally of contract holders' (policyholders') benefits incurred related to traditional life and interest-sensitive products and operating expenses incurred, net of deferred acquisition costs. Total benefits ~~decreased~~increased in the first ~~three~~six months of 2020. Life policy and investment

contract reserves increased with continued growth in net in-force life insurance policy face ~~amounts.~~amounts and less favorable effects of the unlocking of interest rate and other actuarial assumptions. Mortality results decreased, ~~slightly,~~ compared with the same period of 2019, and were below our 2020 projections.

Underwriting expenses for the first ~~three~~six months of 2020 decreased compared with the same period a year ~~ago. For~~ago, largely due to lower commission and general insurance expense levels compared to the ~~first three months~~same period of 2020, unlocking of interest rate actuarial assumptions increased the amount of expenses deferred to future periods, decreasing underwriting expenses. For the first three months of 2019, unlocking of interest rate actuarial assumptions decreased the amount of expenses deferred to future periods, increasing underwriting expenses.2019.

We recognize that assets under management, capital appreciation and investment income are integral to evaluating the success of the life insurance segment because of the long duration of life products. On a basis that includes investment income and investment gains or losses from life-insurance-related invested assets, the life insurance company reported anet income of $12 million for the second quarter of 2020 and net loss of ~~$13~~$1 million for the ~~three~~six months ended ~~March 31,~~June 30, 2020, compared with net income of ~~$10~~$8 million and $18 million for the same ~~period~~periods of 2019. The life insurance company portfolio had a net after-tax investment gain of less than $1 million for the second quarter of 2020 and a net after-tax investment loss of $25 million for the six months ended June 30, 2020, compared with net after-tax investment losses of ~~$25~~less than $1 million and $1 million for the three and six months ended ~~March 31, 2020, compared with $1 million of net after-tax investment losses for the three months ended March 31,~~June 30, 2019. The increased after-tax investment losses for the ~~three~~six months ended ~~March 31,~~June 30, 2020, were due to impairments of fixed-maturity securities.

INVESTMENTS RESULTS

Overview

The investments segment contributes investment income and investment gains and losses to results of operations. Investments traditionally are our primary source of pretax and after-tax profits. ~~The effects from~~During the first six months of 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic ~~were a major contributor to the first-quarter 2020 decrease~~and related economic effects caused volatility in fair values of securities discussed below in Total Investment Gains and Losses. Our fixed-maturity and equity portfolios experienced a decrease in valuation during the first quarter of 2020, in large part due to the volatility and economic uncertainty caused by the coronavirus outbreak ~~affecting~~that affected various sectors of our portfolio. ~~Already~~During the first quarter of 2020, already low oil prices and the sudden demand drop in related products due to governmental ~~regulations,~~actions, such as shelter-in-place orders, contributed to the energy sector accounting for most of the write-downs of impaired securities in the tables below. During second-quarter 2020, valuation increased for a significant portion of our fixed-maturity and equity portfolios.

Investment Income

Pretax investment income ~~increased 5%~~grew 4% for both the second quarter and the first ~~quarter~~six months of 2020, compared with the same ~~period~~periods of 2019. Interest income increased by $1$3 million and $4 million for the three and six months ended June 30, 2020, as net purchases of fixed-maturity securities in recent quarters generally offset the continuing effects of the low interest rate environment. Higher dividend income reflected rising dividend rates and net purchases of equity securities in recent ~~quarters.~~quarters, helping dividend income to grow by $3 million and $10 million for the three and six months ended June 30, 2020.

Investments Results

(Dollars in millions) Three months ended March 31,

2020 2019 % Change
Total investment income, net of expenses $ 165
$ 157
5
Investment interest credited to contract holders' (26 ) (24 ) (8 )
Investment gains and losses, net (1,725 ) 663
nm
Investments profit (loss), pretax $ (1,586 ) $ 796
nm


(Dollars in millions)	Three months ended June 30,									Six months ended June 30,
	2020		2019		% Change	2020		2019		% Change
Total investment income, net of expenses	$	166	$	160	4	$	331	$	317	4
Investment interest credited to contract holders	(25)		(25)		—	(51)		(49)		(4)
Investment gains and losses, net	1,060		364		191	(665)		1,027		nm
Investments profit (loss), pretax	$	1,201	$	499	141	$	(385)	$	1,295	nm

Cincinnati Financial Corporation Second-Quarter 2020 10-Q

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We continue to position our portfolio considering both the challenges presented by the current low interest rate environment and the risks presented by potential future inflation. As bonds in our generally laddered portfolio mature or are called over the near term, we will be challenged to replace their current yield. The table below shows the average pretax yield-to-amortized cost associated with expected principal redemptions for our fixed-maturity portfolio. The expected principal redemptions are based on par amounts and include dated maturities, calls and prefunded municipal bonds that we expect will be called during each respective time period.


(Dollars in millions)	% Yield		Principal redemptions
At June 30, 2020
Fixed-maturity pretax yield profile:
Expected to mature during the remainder of 2020	4.56	%	$	287
Expected to mature during 2021	4.36		852
Expected to mature during 2022	4.09		911
Average yield and total expected maturities from the remainder of 2020 through 2022	4.27		$	2,050

(Dollars in millions) % Yield Principal redemptions
At March 31, 2020
Fixed-maturity pretax yield profile:
Expected to mature during the remainder of 2020 4.46 % $ 402
Expected to mature during 2021 4.36
907
Expected to mature during 2022 4.11
931
Average yield and total expected maturities from the remainder of 2020 through 2022 4.28
$ 2,240

The table below shows the average pretax yield-to-amortized cost for fixed-maturity securities acquired during the periods indicated. The average yield for total fixed-maturity securities acquired during the ~~first three~~six months of 2020 was ~~lower~~higher than the 4.10% average yield-to-amortized cost of the fixed-maturity securities portfolio at the end of 2019. Our fixed-maturity portfolio's average yield of ~~4.04%~~4.06% for the first ~~three~~six months of 2020, from the investment income table below, was ~~also~~ lower than that yield for the year-end 2019 fixed-maturities portfolio.


	Three months ended June 30,						Six months ended June 30,
	2020		2019		2020		2019
Average pretax yield-to-amortized cost on new fixed-maturities:
Acquired taxable fixed-maturities	4.81	%	4.56	%	4.38	%	4.70	%
Acquired tax-exempt fixed-maturities	2.86		3.13		2.91		3.22
Average total fixed-maturities acquired	4.40		4.14		4.22		4.36

Three months ended March 31,
2020 2019
Average pretax yield-to-amortized cost on new fixed-maturities:
Acquired taxable fixed-maturities 4.06 % 4.99 %
Acquired tax-exempt fixed-maturities 3.72
3.52
Average total fixed-maturities acquired 4.05
4.79

While our bond portfolio more than covers our insurance reserve liabilities, we believe our diversified common stock portfolio of mainly blue chip, dividend-paying companies represents one of our best investment opportunities for the long term. We discussed our portfolio strategies in our 2019 Annual Report on Form 10-K, Item 1, Investments Segment, Page 27, and Item 7, Investments Outlook, Page 95. We discuss risks related to our investment income and our fixed-maturity and equity investment portfolios in this quarterly report Item 3, Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk.

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The table below provides details about investment income. Average yields in this table are based on the average invested asset and cash amounts indicated in the table, using fixed-maturity securities valued at amortized cost and all other securities at fair value.


(Dollars in millions)	Three months ended March 31,							(Dollars in millions)	Three months ended June 30,													Six months ended June 30,
	2020			2019			% Change		2020			2019			% Change	2020			2019			% Change
Investment income:								Investment income:
Interest	$	112		$	111		1	Interest	$	114		$	111		3	$	226		$	222		2
Dividends	53			46			15	Dividends	53			50			6	106			96			10
Other	3			3			0	Other	2			2			0	5			5			0
Less investment expenses	3			3			0	Less investment expenses	3			3			0	6			6			0
Investment income, pretax	165			157			5	Investment income, pretax	166			160			4	331			317			4
Less income taxes	26			24			8	Less income taxes	25			25			0	51			49			4
Total investment income, after-tax	$	139		$	133		5	Total investment income, after-tax	$	141		$	135		4	$	280		$	268		4

Investment returns:								Investment returns:
Average invested assets plus cash and cash equivalents	$	19,010		$	17,924			Average invested assets plus cash and cash equivalents	$	18,759		$	18,648			$	19,672		$	18,194
Average yield pretax	3.47		%	3.50		%		Average yield pretax	3.54		%	3.43		%		3.37		%	3.48		%
Average yield after-tax	2.92			2.97				Average yield after-tax	3.01			2.90				2.85			2.95
Effective tax rate	15.5			15.5				Effective tax rate	15.6			15.6				15.5			15.6

Fixed-maturity returns:								Fixed-maturity returns:
Average amortized cost	$	11,091		$	10,689			Average amortized cost	$	11,107		$	10,783			$	11,124		$	10,738
Average yield pretax	4.04		%	4.15		%		Average yield pretax	4.11		%	4.12		%		4.06		%	4.13		%
Average yield after-tax	3.37			3.46				Average yield after-tax	3.42			3.43				3.39			3.45
Effective tax rate	16.6			16.7				Effective tax rate	16.7			16.6				16.6			16.6

Total Investment Gains and Losses

Investment gains and losses are recognized on the sale of investments, for certain changes in fair values of securities even though we continue to hold the securities or as otherwise required by GAAP. The change in fair value for equity securities still held are included in investment gains and losses and also in net income. The change in unrealized gains or losses for fixed-maturity securities are included as a component of other comprehensive income (OCI). Accounting requirements for the allowance for credit losses and other-than-temporary impairment (OTTI) charges for the fixed-maturity portfolio are disclosed in our 2019 Annual Report on Form 10-K, Item 8, Note 1, Summary of Significant Accounting Policies, Page 133 and in this quarterly report Item 1, Note 1, Accounting Policies.

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The table below summarizes total investment gains and losses, before taxes.


(Dollars in millions)	Three months ended June 30,						Six months ended June 30,
	2020		2019		2020		2019
Investment gains and losses:
Equity securities:
Investment gains and losses on securities sold, net	$	24	$	11	$	17	$	23
Unrealized gains and losses on securities still held, net	1,044		355		(602)		999



Subtotal	1,068		366		(585)		1,022
Fixed maturities:
Gross realized gains	3		1		5		3
Gross realized losses	(3)		(2)		(3)		(2)
Write-down of impaired securities	—		—		(77)		—
Subtotal	—		(1)		(75)		1
Other	(8)		(1)		(5)		4
Total investment gains and losses reported in net income	1,060		364		(665)		1,027

Change in unrealized investment gains and losses:

Fixed maturities	506		200		182		442

Total	$	1,566	$	564	$	(483)	$	1,469

(Dollars in millions) Three months ended March 31,
2020
2019
Investment gains and losses:
Equity securities:
Investment gains and losses on securities sold, net $ (4 ) $ 4
Unrealized gains and losses on securities still held, net (1,649 ) 652
Subtotal (1,653 ) 656
Fixed maturities:
Gross realized gains 2
2
Write-down of impaired securities (77 ) —
Subtotal (75 ) 2
Other 3
5
Total investment gains and losses reported in net income (1,725 ) 663
Change in unrealized investment gains and losses:
Fixed maturities (324 ) 242
Total $ (2,049 ) $ 905

Of the ~~3,945~~4,010 fixed-maturity securities in the portfolio, 18five securities were trading below 70% of amortized cost at ~~March 31,~~June 30, 2020, with a fair value of ~~$58~~$7 million and an unrealized loss of ~~$40~~$3 million. Our asset impairment committee regularly monitors the portfolio, including a quarterly review of the entire portfolio for potential credit losses, resulting in charges disclosed in the table below. We believe that if liquidity in the markets were to significantly deteriorate or economic conditions were to significantly weaken, we could experience declines in portfolio values and possibly increases in the allowance for credit losses or write-downs to fair value.

The table below provides additional details for write-downs of impaired securities or OTTI charges. We had no allowance for credit losses for the first ~~three~~six months of 2020.


(Dollars in millions)	Three months ended June 30,						Six months ended June 30,
	2020		2019		2020		2019
Fixed maturities:
Energy	$	—	$	—	$	62	$	—
Real Estate	—		—		13		—
Consumer Goods	—		—		1		—
Technology & Electronics	—		—		1		—
Total fixed maturities	$	—	$	—	$	77	$	—

(Dollars in millions) Three months ended March 31,
2020 2019
Fixed maturities:

Energy $ 62
$ —
Real Estate 13
—
Consumer Goods 1
—
Technology & Electronics 1
—
Total fixed maturities $ 77
$ —

Cincinnati Financial Corporation Second-Quarter 2020 10-Q

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OTHER

We report as Other the noninvestment operations of the parent company and a noninsurance subsidiary, CFC Investment Company. We also report as Other the underwriting results of Cincinnati Re, our reinsurance assumed operation, and Cincinnati Global, since its acquisition on February 28, 2019. Underwriting results in the table below for Cincinnati Re and Cincinnati Global include earned premiums, loss and loss expenses and underwriting expenses.

Total revenues for the first ~~three~~six months of 2020 for our Other operations increased, compared with the same period of 2019, primarily due to earned premiums from Cincinnati Re and Cincinnati Global, with increases of ~~$22~~$33 million and ~~$17~~$18 million, respectively. Total expenses for Other increased for the first ~~three~~six months of 2020, primarily due to more losses and loss expenses from Cincinnati Re and Cincinnati Global.

Other loss in the table below represents losses before income taxes. For both periods shown, Other loss resulted largely from interest expense from debt of the parent company.


(Dollars in millions)	Three months ended March 31,								(Dollars in millions)	Three months ended June 30,									Six months ended June 30,
	2020			2019			% Change			2020		2019		% Change	2020		2019		% Change
Interest and fees on loans and leases	$	1		$	2		(50	)	Interest and fees on loans and leases	$	2	$	1	100	$	3	$	3	0
Earned premiums	89			50			78		Earned premiums	91		79		15	180		129		40
Other revenues	1			—			nm		Other revenues	1		1		0	2		1		100
Total revenues	91			52			75		Total revenues	94		81		16	185		133		39
Interest expense	13			13			0		Interest expense	14		13		8	27		26		4
Loss and loss expenses	46			26			77		Loss and loss expenses	68		44		55	114		70		63
Underwriting expenses	29			16			81		Underwriting expenses	28		21		33	57		37		54
Operating expenses	5			8			(38	)	Operating expenses	5		4		25	10		12		(17)
Total expenses	93			63			48		Total expenses	115		82		40	208		145		43
Total other loss	$	(2	)	$	(11	)	82		Total other loss	$	(21)	$	(1)	nm	$	(23)	$	(12)	(92)

TAXES

We had ~~$350~~$236 million of income tax expense and $114 million of income tax benefit for the three and six months ended ~~March 31,~~June 30, 2020, compared with ~~$172~~$102 million and $274 million of income tax expense for the same ~~period~~periods of 2019. The effective tax rate for the three and six months ended ~~March 31,~~June 30, 2020, was ~~22.2%~~20.6% and 26.5% compared with ~~19.8%~~19.2% and 19.6% for the same ~~period~~periods last year. The change in our effective tax rate between periods was primarily due to large net investment losses included in income for 2020 versus net investment gains included in income for the prior-year period as well as changes in underwriting income.

Historically, we have pursued a strategy of investing some portion of cash flow in tax-advantaged fixed-maturity and equity securities to minimize our overall tax liability and maximize after-tax earnings. See Tax-Exempt Fixed Maturities in this quarterly report Item 3, Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk for further discussion on municipal bond purchases in our fixed-maturity investment portfolio. For our property casualty insurance subsidiaries, approximately 75% of interest from tax-advantaged fixed-maturity investments and approximately 40% of dividends from qualified equities are exempt from federal tax after applying proration from the 1986 Tax Reform Act. Our noninsurance companies own an immaterial amount of tax-advantaged fixed-maturity investments. For our noninsurance companies, the dividend received deduction exempts 50% of dividends from qualified equities. Our life insurance company does not own tax-advantaged fixed-maturity investments or equities subject to the dividend received deduction. Details about our effective tax rate are in this quarterly report Item 1, Note 9, Income Taxes.

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LIQUIDITY AND CAPITAL RESOURCES

At ~~March 31,~~June 30, 2020, shareholders' equity was ~~$8.042~~$9.258 billion, compared with $9.864 billion at December 31, 2019. Total debt was ~~$902~~$910 million at ~~March 31,~~June 30, 2020, up ~~$75~~$83 million from December 31, 2019. At ~~March 31,~~June 30, 2020, cash and cash equivalents totaled ~~$486~~$706 million, compared with $767 million at December 31, 2019.

The effects from COVID-19 were a ~~major~~ contributor to the decrease in shareholders' equity in the first ~~quarter~~half of 2020 due to the decline in fair values of ~~securities.~~our equity securities portfolio and pandemic-related incurred losses and expenses. The pandemic did not have a significant effect on our cash flows for the first ~~quarter~~half of 2020. ~~In an effort to support insurance consumers during this~~

The COVID-19 pandemic ~~most~~slowed the growth of our premium revenues for the second quarter and first six months of 2020. Most states where we market our products ~~have~~ issued mandates or requests such as moratoriums on policy cancellations or nonrenewals for nonpayments of premiums, forbearance on premium collections, waivers of late payment fees and extended periods in which policyholders may make their missed payments.

~~In April, thus far, we have seen a reduction in cash flows from premium receipts as we work to assist policyholders and follow guidance from each state.~~ Extended or future moratoriums and deferral of premiums may ~~further~~ disrupt cash flows while also increasing credit risk from policyholders struggling to make timely premium payments.

~~Because~~In addition to our historically positive operating cash flow to meet the needs of ~~fewer vehicles~~operations, we have the ability to sell a portion of our high-quality, liquid investment portfolio or slow investing activities if such need arises. We also have additional capacity to borrow on ~~the road and other factors that reduce exposure to certain insurance losses, such~~our revolving short-term line of credit, as reduced sales and payrolls for businesses, there could be a reduction in future losses that generally correspond to reduced premiums. For example, we saw a reduction in personal auto reported claims as a result of reduced driving in late March and early April.described further below.

SOURCES OF LIQUIDITY

Subsidiary Dividends

Our lead insurance subsidiary declared dividends of ~~$125~~$225 million to the parent company in the first ~~three~~six months of 2020, compared with ~~$200~~$300 million for the same period of 2019. For full-year 2019, subsidiary dividends declared totaled $625 million. State of Ohio regulatory requirements restrict the dividends our insurance subsidiary can pay. For full-year 2020, total dividends that our insurance subsidiary can pay to our parent company without regulatory approval are approximately $562 million.

Investing Activities

Investment income is a source of liquidity for both the parent company and its insurance subsidiaries. We continue to focus on portfolio strategies to balance near-term income generation and long-term book value growth.

Parent company obligations can be funded with income on investments held at the parent-company level or through sales of securities in that portfolio, although our investment philosophy seeks to compound cash flows over the long term. These sources of capital can help minimize subsidiary dividends to the parent company, protecting insurance subsidiary capital.

For a discussion of our historic investment strategy, portfolio allocation and quality, see our 2019 Annual Report on Form 10-K, Item 1, Investments Segment, Page 27.

Insurance Underwriting

Our property casualty and life insurance underwriting operations provide liquidity because we generally receive premiums before paying losses under the policies purchased with those premiums. After satisfying our cash requirements, we use excess cash flows for investment, increasing future investment income.

Historically, cash receipts from property casualty and life insurance premiums, along with investment income, have been more than sufficient to pay claims, operating expenses and dividends to the parent company.

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The table below shows a summary of operating cash flow for property casualty insurance (direct method):


(Dollars in millions)	Three months ended March 31,								(Dollars in millions)	Three months ended June 30,									Six months ended June 30,
	2020			2019			% Change			2020		2019		% Change	2020		2019		% Change
Premiums collected	$	1,467		$	1,349		9		Premiums collected	$	1,518	$	1,443	5	$	2,985	$	2,792	7
Loss and loss expenses paid	(817		)	(824		)	1		Loss and loss expenses paid	(751)		(798)		6	(1,568)		(1,622)		3
Commissions and other underwriting expenses paid	(591		)	(514		)	(15	)	Commissions and other underwriting expenses paid	(397)		(383)		(4)	(988)		(897)		(10)
Cash flow from underwriting	59			11			436		Cash flow from underwriting	370		262		41	429		273		57
Investment income received	119			113			5		Investment income received	110		107		3	229		220		4
Cash flow from operations	$	178		$	124		44		Cash flow from operations	$	480	$	369	30	$	658	$	493	33

Collected premiums for property casualty insurance rose ~~$118~~$193 million during the first ~~three~~six months of 2020, compared with the same period in 2019. Loss and loss expenses paid for the 2020 ~~period~~period decreased $7$54 million. Commissions and other underwriting expenses ~~paid~~paid increased ~~$77~~$91 million, primarily due to higher commissions paid to agencies, reflecting the increase in collected premiums.

We discuss our future obligations for claims payments and for underwriting expenses in our 2019 Annual Report on Form 10-K, Item 7, Contractual Obligations, Page 101, and Other Commitments also on Page 101.

Capital Resources

At ~~March 31,~~June 30, 2020, our debt-to-total-capital ratio was ~~10.1%~~8.9%, considerably below our 35% covenant threshold, with $788 million in long-term debt and ~~$114~~ $122 million in borrowing on our revolving short-term line of credit. ~~The~~We borrowed an additional $75 million in ~~borrowing~~the first quarter of 2020, from the $39 million balance at December 31, 2019, which was used to repurchase ~~shares.~~shares during the first quarter of 2020. At ~~March 31,~~June 30, 2020, ~~$186~~$178 million was available for future cash management needs as part of the general provisions of the line of credit agreement, with another $300 million available as part of an accordion feature. Based on our capital requirements at ~~March 31,~~June 30, 2020, we do not anticipate a material increase in debt levels exceeding the available line of credit amount during the remainder of the year. As a result, we expect changes in our debt-to-total-capital ratio to continue to be largely a function of the contribution of unrealized investment gains or losses to shareholders' equity. As part of our Cincinnati Global acquisition, on February 25, 2019, we entered into an unsecured letter of credit agreement to provide a portion of the capital needed to support its obligations at Lloyd's. The amount of this unsecured letter of credit agreement was ~~$131~~$130 million at ~~March 31,~~June 30, 2020.

We provide details of our three long-term notes in this quarterly report Item 1, Note 3, Fair Value Measurements. None of the notes are encumbered by rating triggers.

Four independent ratings firms award insurer financial strength ratings to our property casualty insurance companies and three firms rate our life insurance company. Those firms made no changes to our parent company debt ratings during the first three months of 2020. Our debt ratings are discussed in our 2019 Annual Report on Form 10-K, Item 7, Liquidity and Capital Resources, Other Sources of Liquidity, Page 99.

Off-Balance Sheet Arrangements

We do not use any special-purpose financing vehicles or have any undisclosed off-balance sheet arrangements (as that term is defined in applicable SEC rules) that are reasonably likely to have a current or future material effect on the company's financial condition, results of operation, liquidity, capital expenditures or capital resources. Similarly, the company holds no fair-value contracts for which a lack of marketplace quotations would necessitate the use of fair-value techniques.

Cincinnati Financial Corporation Second-Quarter 2020 10-Q

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USES OF LIQUIDITY

Our parent company and insurance subsidiary have contractual obligations and other commitments. In addition, one of our primary uses of cash is to enhance shareholder return.

Contractual Obligations

We estimated our future contractual obligations as of December 31, 2019, in our 2019 Annual Report on Form

10-K, Item 7, Contractual Obligations, Page 101. There have been no material changes to our estimates of future contractual obligations since our 2019 Annual Report on Form 10-K.

Other Commitments

In addition to our contractual obligations, we have other property casualty operational commitments.

•Commissions – Commissions paid were ~~$385~~$630 million in the first ~~three~~six months of 2020. Commission payments generally track with written premiums, except for annual profit-sharing commissions typically paid during the first quarter of the year.

•Other underwriting expenses – Many of our underwriting expenses are not contractual obligations, but reflect the ongoing expenses of our business. Noncommission underwriting expenses paid were ~~$206~~$358 million in the first ~~three~~six months of 2020.

There were no contributions to our qualified pension plan during the first ~~three~~six months of 2020.

Investing Activities

After fulfilling operating requirements, we invest cash flows from underwriting, investment and other corporate activities in fixed-maturity and equity securities on an ongoing basis to help achieve our portfolio objectives. We discuss our investment strategy and certain portfolio attributes in this quarterly report Item 3, Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk.

Uses of Capital

Uses of cash to enhance shareholder return include dividends to shareholders. In January 2020, the board of directors declared regular quarterly cash dividends of 60 cents per share for an indicated annual rate of $2.40 per share. During the first ~~three~~six months of 2020, we used ~~$90~~$185 million to pay cash dividends to shareholders.

PROPERTY CASUALTY INSURANCE LOSS AND LOSS EXPENSE RESERVES

For the business lines in the commercial and personal lines insurance segments, and in total for the excess and surplus lines insurance segment and other property casualty insurance operations, the following table details gross reserves among case, IBNR (incurred but not reported) and loss expense reserves, net of salvage and subrogation reserves. Reserving practices are discussed in our 2019 Annual Report on Form 10-K, Item 7, Property Casualty Insurance Loss and Loss Expense Obligations and Reserves, Page 102.

Total gross reserves at ~~March 31,~~June 30, 2020, increased ~~$65~~$321 million compared with December 31, 2019. Case loss reserves for losses ~~decreased~~increased by ~~$49~~$23 million, IBNR loss reserves increased by ~~$112~~$263 million and loss expense reserves increased by $2$35 million. The total gross increase was primarily due to our commercial casualty and ~~homeowner~~commercial property lines of business and ~~Cincinnati Re.~~our excess and surplus lines insurance segment.

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Property Casualty Gross Reserves


(Dollars in millions)	Loss reserves							Loss expense reserves				Total gross reserves						(Dollars in millions)				Loss reserves												Loss expense reserves				Total gross reserves
	Case reserves			IBNR reserves							Percent of total									Case reserves					IBNR reserves															Percent of total
At March 31, 2020			Loss expense reserves				Total gross reserves
At June 30, 2020																At June 30, 2020						Case reserves							IBNR reserves											Loss expense reserves	Percent of total	Total gross reserves
Commercial lines insurance:																					Commercial lines insurance:
Commercial casualty	$	952			$	682				$	632			$	2,266			36.8	%	Commercial casualty				$	963			$		728			$	628			$	2,319
Commercial property	303				60					62				425				6.9		Commercial property				369				50				78				497			7.8
Commercial auto	396			181				136				713				11.6		Commercial auto				388				208				138				734				11.4
Workers' compensation	401			522				92				1,015				16.5		Workers' compensation				397				526				87				1,010				15.8
Other commercial	97			9				79				185				3.0		Other commercial				94				11				87				192				3.0
Subtotal	2,149			1,454				1,001				4,604				74.8		Subtotal				2,211				1,523				1,018				4,752				74.2
Personal lines insurance:																		Personal lines insurance:
Personal auto	226			51				66				343				5.6		Personal auto				207				86				70				363				5.7
Homeowner	131			57				37				225				3.7		Homeowner				150				55				45				250				3.9
Other personal	54			77				5				136				2.2		Other personal				54				83				5				142				2.2
Subtotal	411			185				108				704				11.5		Subtotal				411				224				120				755				11.8
Excess and surplus lines insurance	158			99				108				365				5.9
Excess and surplus lines																		Excess and surplus lines				169				120				113				402				6.3
Cincinnati Re	56			211				3				270				4.4		Cincinnati Re				61				235				2				298				4.6
Cincinnati Global	141			67				2				210				3.4		Cincinnati Global				135				65				2				202				3.1
Total	$	2,915		$	2,016			$	1,222			$	6,153			100.0	%	Total				$	2,987			$	2,167			$	1,255			$	6,409			100.0	%
At December 31, 2019																		At December 31, 2019
Commercial lines insurance:																		Commercial lines insurance:
Commercial casualty	$	937		$	680			$	622			$	2,239			36.8	%	Commercial casualty				$	937			$	680			$	622			$	2,239			36.8	%
Commercial property	339			20				64				423				7.0		Commercial property				339				20				64				423				7.0
Commercial auto	409			157				143				709				11.6		Commercial auto				409				157				143				709				11.6
Workers' compensation	404			516				93				1,013				16.6		Workers' compensation				404				516				93				1,013				16.6
Other commercial	108			7				70				185				3.0		Other commercial				108				7				70				185				3.0
Subtotal	2,197			1,380				992				4,569				75.0		Subtotal				2,197				1,380				992				4,569				75.0
Personal lines insurance:																		Personal lines insurance:
Personal auto	233			46				78				357				5.9		Personal auto				233				46				78				357				5.9
Homeowner	134			32				41				207				3.4		Homeowner				134				32				41				207				3.4
Other personal	49			69				5				123				2.0		Other personal				49				69				5				123				2.0
Subtotal	416			147				124				687				11.3		Subtotal				416				147				124				687				11.3
Excess and surplus lines insurance	149			102				100				351				5.8
Excess and surplus lines																		Excess and surplus lines				149				102				100				351				5.8
Cincinnati Re	47			204				2				253				4.2		Cincinnati Re				47				204				2				253				4.2
Cincinnati Global	155			71				2				228				3.7		Cincinnati Global				155				71				2				228				3.7
Total	$	2,964		$	1,904			$	1,220			$	6,088			100.0	%	Total				$	2,964			$	1,904			$	1,220			$	6,088			100.0	%

LIFE POLICY AND INVESTMENT CONTRACT RESERVES

Gross life policy and investment contract reserves were ~~$2.861~~$2.881 billion at ~~March 31,~~June 30, 2020, compared with $2.835 billion at year-end 2019, reflecting continued growth in life insurance policies in force. We discuss our life insurance reserving practices in our 2019 Annual Report on Form 10-K, Item 7, Life Insurance Policyholder Obligations and Reserves, Page 108.

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OTHER MATTERS

SIGNIFICANT ACCOUNTING POLICIES

Our significant accounting policies are discussed in our 2019 Annual Report on Form 10-K, Item 8, Note 1, Summary of Significant Accounting Policies, Page 133, and updated in this quarterly report Item 1, Note 1, Accounting Policies.

In conjunction with those discussions, in the Management's Discussion and Analysis in the 2019 Annual Report on Form 10-K, management reviewed the estimates and assumptions used to develop reported amounts related to the most significant policies. Management discussed the development and selection of those accounting estimates with the audit committee of the board of directors.

Item 3. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk

Our greatest exposure to market risk is through our investment portfolio. Market risk is the potential for a decrease in securities' fair value resulting from broad yet uncontrollable forces such as: inflation, economic growth or recession, interest rates, world political conditions or other widespread unpredictable events. It is comprised of many individual risks that, when combined, create a macroeconomic impact.

Our view of potential risks and our sensitivity to such risks is discussed in our 2019 Annual Report on Form 10-K, Item 7A, Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk, Page 117.

The fair value of our investment portfolio was ~~$17.565~~$19.228 billion at ~~March 31,~~June 30, 2020, down ~~$1.885 billion~~$222 million from year-end 2019, including a ~~$358~~$213 million ~~decrease~~increase in the fixed-maturity portfolio and a ~~$1.527 billion~~$435 million decrease in the equity portfolio.


(Dollars in millions)	At March 31, 2020								At December 31, 2019								(Dollars in millions)	At June 30, 2020														At December 31, 2019
	Cost or amortized cost		Percent of total		Fair value		Percent of total		Cost or amortized cost		Percent of total		Fair value		Percent of total			Cost or amortized cost		Percent of total		Fair value		Percent of total		Cost or amortized cost		Percent of total		Fair value		Percent of total
Taxable fixed maturities	$	7,250	49.0	%	$	7,288	41.4	%	$	7,250	49.4	%	$	7,617	39.1	%	Taxable fixed maturities	$	7,269	48.8	%	$	7,744	40.3	%	$	7,250	49.4	%	$	7,617	39.1	%
Tax-exempt fixed maturities	3,824		25.9		4,052		23.1		3,858		26.3		4,081		21.0		Tax-exempt fixed maturities	3,870		26.0		4,167		21.7		3,858		26.3		4,081		21.0
Common equities	3,483		23.6		6,017		34.3		3,371		22.9		7,518		38.7		Common equities	3,518		23.6		7,082		36.8		3,371		22.9		7,518		38.7
Nonredeemable preferred equities	219		1.5		208		1.2		210		1.4		234		1.2		Nonredeemable preferred equities	234		1.6		235		1.2		210		1.4		234		1.2

Total	$	14,776	100.0	%	$	17,565	100.0	%	$	14,689	100.0	%	$	19,450	100.0	%	Total	$	14,891	100.0	%	$	19,228	100.0	%	$	14,689	100.0	%	$	19,450	100.0	%

At ~~March 31,~~June 30, 2020, substantially all of our consolidated investment portfolio, measured at fair value, are classified as Level 1 or Level 2. See Item 1, Note 3, Fair Value Measurements, for additional discussion of our valuation techniques. We have generally obtained and evaluated two nonbinding quotes from brokers; then, our investment professionals determined our best estimate of fair value. These investments include private placements, small issues and various thinly traded securities.

In addition to our investment portfolio, the total investments amount reported in our condensed consolidated balance sheets includes Other invested assets. Other invested assets included $33 million of life policy loans, ~~$165~~$114 million in Lloyd's deposits, ~~$88~~$87 million of private equity investments and $25 million of real estate through direct property ownership and development projects in the United States at ~~March 31,~~June 30, 2020.

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FIXED-MATURITY SECURITIES INVESTMENTS

By maintaining a well-diversified fixed-maturity portfolio, we attempt to reduce overall risk. We invest new money in the bond market on a regular basis, targeting what we believe to be optimal risk-adjusted, after-tax yields. Risk, in this context, includes interest rate, call, reinvestment rate, credit and liquidity risk. We do not make a concerted effort to alter duration on a portfolio basis in response to anticipated movements in interest rates. By regularly investing in the bond market, we build a broad, diversified portfolio that we believe mitigates the impact of adverse economic factors.

In the first ~~three~~six months of 2020, the ~~decrease~~increase in fair value of our fixed-maturity portfolio reflected ~~a decrease~~an increase in net unrealized gains, primarily due to ~~market value~~a combination of net purchases and a decline in U.S. Treasury yields, somewhat offset by a widening of corporate ~~bonds related to economic uncertainty from effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.~~credit spreads. At ~~March 31,~~June 30, 2020, our fixed-maturity portfolio with an average rating of ~~A2/~~A3/A was valued at ~~102.4%~~106.9% of its amortized cost, compared with 105.3% at December 31, 2019.

At ~~March 31,~~June 30, 2020, our investment-grade and noninvestment-grade fixed-maturity securities represented ~~84.2%~~83.0% and ~~2.7%~~3.8% of the portfolio, respectively. The remaining ~~13.1%~~13.2% represented fixed-maturity securities that were not rated by Moody's or S&P Global Ratings.

Attributes of the fixed-maturity portfolio include:


	At March 31, 2020		At December 31, 2019			At June 30, 2020			At December 31, 2019
Weighted average yield-to-amortized cost	4.20	%	4.10	%	Weighted average yield-to-amortized cost	4.23	%	4.10	%
Weighted average maturity	7.7	yrs	7.7	yrs	Weighted average maturity	7.6	yrs	7.7	yrs
Effective duration	4.7	yrs	4.8	yrs	Effective duration	4.7	yrs	4.8	yrs

We discuss maturities of our fixed-maturity portfolio in our 2019 Annual Report on Form 10-K, Item 8, Note 2, Investments, Page 141, and in this quarterly report Item 2, Investments Results.

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TAXABLE FIXED MATURITIES

Our taxable fixed-maturity portfolio, with a fair value of ~~$7.288~~$7.744 billion at ~~March 31,~~June 30, 2020, included:


(Dollars in millions)	At March 31, 2020		At December 31, 2019		(Dollars in millions)	At June 30, 2020		At December 31, 2019
Investment-grade corporate	$	5,831	$	6,137	Investment-grade corporate	$	6,213	$	6,137
States, municipalities and political subdivisions	659		647		States, municipalities and political subdivisions	663		647
Noninvestment-grade corporate	302		264		Noninvestment-grade corporate	436		264
Commercial mortgage backed	284		301		Commercial mortgage backed	277		301
United States government	102		104		United States government	114		104
Foreign government					Foreign government	22		28
Government sponsored enterprises	87		136		Government sponsored enterprises	19		136
Foreign government	23		28

Total	$	7,288	$	7,617	Total	$	7,744	$	7,617

Our strategy is to buy, and typically hold, fixed-maturity investments to maturity, but we monitor credit profiles and fair value movements when determining holding periods for individual securities. With the exception of United States agency issues that include government-sponsored enterprises, no individual issuer's securities accounted for more than ~~0.9%~~1.1% of the taxable fixed-maturity portfolio at ~~March 31,~~June 30, 2020. Our investment-grade corporate bonds had an average rating of Baa2 by Moody's or BBB by S&P Global Ratings and represented ~~80.0%~~80.2% of the taxable fixed-maturity portfolio's fair value at ~~March 31,~~June 30, 2020, compared with 80.6% at year-end 2019.

The heaviest concentration in our investment-grade corporate bond portfolio, based on fair value at

~~March 31,~~June 30, 2020, was the financial sector. It represented ~~46.3%~~46.0% of our investment-grade corporate bond portfolio, compared with 44.6% at year-end 2019. No other sector exceeded 10% of our investment-grade corporate bond portfolio.

Our taxable fixed-maturity portfolio at ~~March 31,~~June 30, 2020, included ~~$284~~$277 million of commercial mortgage-backed securities with an average rating of Aa1/~~AA+.~~AA.

TAX-EXEMPT FIXED MATURITIES

At ~~March 31,~~June 30, 2020, we had ~~$4.052~~$4.167 billion of tax-exempt fixed-maturity securities with an average rating of Aa2/AA by Moody's and S&P Global Ratings. We traditionally have purchased municipal bonds focusing on general obligation and essential services issues, such as water, waste disposal or others. The portfolio is well diversified among approximately 1,600 municipal bond issuers. No single municipal issuer accounted for more than 0.6% of the tax-exempt fixed-maturity portfolio at ~~March 31,~~June 30, 2020.

INTEREST RATE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

Because of our strong surplus, long-term investment horizon and ability to hold most fixed-maturity investments until maturity, we believe the company is adequately positioned if interest rates were to rise. Although the fair values of our existing holdings may suffer, a higher rate environment would provide the opportunity to invest cash flow in higher-yielding securities, while reducing the likelihood of untimely redemptions of currently callable securities. While higher interest rates would be expected to continue to increase the number of fixed-maturity holdings trading below 100% of amortized cost, we believe lower fixed-maturity security values due solely to interest rate changes would not signal a decline in credit quality. We continue to manage the portfolio with an eye toward both meeting current income needs and managing interest rate risk.

Our dynamic financial planning model uses analytical tools to assess market risks. As part of this model, the effective duration of the fixed-maturity portfolio is continually monitored by our investment department to evaluate the theoretical impact of interest rate movements.

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The table below summarizes the effect of hypothetical changes in interest rates on the fair value of the fixed-maturity portfolio:


(Dollars in millions)	Effect from interest rate change in basis points										(Dollars in millions)	Effect from interest rate change in basis points
	-200		-100		-		100		200			-200		-100		-		100		200
At March 31, 2020	$	12,442	$	11,879	$	11,340	$	10,800	$	10,251
At June 30, 2020											At June 30, 2020	$	13,072	$	12,478	$	11,911	$	11,343	$	10,766
At December 31, 2019	$	12,850	$	12,263	$	11,698	$	11,117	$	10,529	At December 31, 2019	$	12,850	$	12,263	$	11,698	$	11,117	$	10,529

The effective duration of the fixed-maturity portfolio as of ~~March 31,~~June 30, 2020, was 4.7 years, down from 4.8 years at year-end 2019. The above table is a theoretical presentation showing that an instantaneous, parallel shift in the yield curve of 100 basis points could produce an approximately 4.8% change in the fair value of the fixed-maturity portfolio. Generally speaking, the higher a bond is rated, the more directly correlated movements in its fair value are to changes in the general level of interest rates, exclusive of call features. The fair values of average- to lower-rated corporate bonds are additionally influenced by the expansion or contraction of credit spreads.

In our dynamic financial planning model, the selected interest rate change of 100 to 200 basis points represents our view of a shift in rates that is quite possible over a one-year period. The rates modeled should not be considered a prediction of future events as interest rates may be much more volatile in the future. The analysis is not intended to provide a precise forecast of the effect of changes in rates on our results or financial condition, nor does it take into account any actions that we might take to reduce exposure to such risks.

EQUITY INVESTMENTS

Our equity investments, with a fair value totaling ~~$6.225~~$7.317 billion at ~~March 31,~~June 30, 2020, included ~~$6.017~~$7.082 billion of common stock securities of companies generally with strong indications of paying and growing their dividends. Other criteria we evaluate include increasing sales and earnings, proven management and a favorable outlook. We believe our equity investment style is an appropriate long-term strategy. While our long-term financial position would be affected by prolonged changes in the market valuation of our investments, we believe our strong surplus position and cash flow provide a cushion against short-term fluctuations in valuation. Continued payment of cash dividends by the issuers of our common equity holdings can provide a floor to their valuation.

The table below summarizes the effect of hypothetical changes in market prices on fair value of our equity portfolio.

(Dollars in millions) Effect from market price change in percent
-30% -20% -10% — 10% 20% 30%
At March 31, 2020 $ 4,358
$ 4,980
$ 5,603
$ 6,225
$ 6,848
$ 7,470
$ 8,093
At December 31, 2019 5,426
6,202
6,977
7,752
8,527
9,302
10,078


(Dollars in millions)	Effect from market price change in percent
		-30%		-20%		-10%		—		10%		20%		30%
At June 30, 2020		$	5,122	$	5,854	$	6,585	$	7,317	$	8,049	$	8,780	$	9,512
At December 31, 2019		$	5,426	$	6,202	$	6,977	$	7,752	$	8,527	$	9,302	$	10,078

At ~~March 31,~~June 30, 2020, ~~Microsoft Corporation~~Apple Inc. (Nasdaq:~~MSFT)~~AAPL) was our largest single common stock holding with a fair value of  ~~$395~~$514 million, or ~~6.6%~~7.3% of our publicly traded common stock portfolio and ~~2.3%~~2.7% of the total investment portfolio. ~~Twenty-six~~Thirty holdings among 78 different sectors each had a fair value greater than $100 million.

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Common Stock Portfolio Industry Sector Distribution


	Percent of common stock portfolio									Percent of common stock portfolio
	At March 31, 2020				At December 31, 2019					At June 30, 2020						At December 31, 2019
	Cincinnati Financial		S&P 500 Industry Weightings		Cincinnati Financial		S&P 500 Industry Weightings			Cincinnati Financial		S&P 500 Industry Weightings		Cincinnati Financial		S&P 500 Industry Weightings
Sector:									Sector:
Information technology	25.2	%	25.5	%	23.7	%	23.2	%	Information technology	28.1	%	27.5	%	23.7	%	23.2	%
Healthcare									Healthcare	13.3		14.6		12.4		14.2
Financial	14.1		10.9		15.7		13.0		Financial	13.1		10.1		15.7		13.0
Healthcare	13.9		15.4		12.4		14.2
Industrials	11.8		8.2		12.6		9.1		Industrials	11.5		8.0		12.6		9.1
Consumer discretionary	9.1		9.8		9.7		9.7		Consumer discretionary	8.9		10.8		9.7		9.7
Consumer staples	7.0		7.8		6.2		7.2		Consumer staples	6.4		7.0		6.2		7.2
Materials	4.8		2.4		5.0		2.7		Materials	5.0		2.5		5.0		2.7
Energy	4.6		2.7		6.3		4.3		Energy	4.6		2.8		6.3		4.3
Telecomm services	3.9		10.7		3.4		10.4		Telecomm services	3.7		10.8		3.4		10.4
Real Estate									Real Estate	2.8		2.8		2.5		2.9
Utilities	2.8		3.6		2.5		3.3		Utilities	2.6		3.1		2.5		3.3
Real Estate	2.8		3.0		2.5		2.9
Total	100.0	%	100.0	%	100.0	%	100.0	%	Total	100.0	%	100.0	%	100.0	%	100.0	%

UNREALIZED INVESTMENT GAINS AND LOSSES

At ~~March 31,~~June 30, 2020, unrealized investment gains before taxes for the fixed-maturity portfolio totaled ~~$461~~$825 million and unrealized investment losses amounted to ~~$195~~$53 million before taxes.

The ~~$266~~$772 million net unrealized gain position in our fixed-maturity portfolio at ~~March 31,~~June 30, 2020, ~~decreased~~increased in the first ~~three~~six months of 2020, primarily due to ~~market value~~a combination of net purchases and a decline in U.S. Treasury yields, somewhat offset by a widening of corporate ~~bonds related to economic uncertainty from effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.~~credit spreads. The net gain position for our current fixed-maturity holdings will naturally decline over time as individual securities mature. In addition, changes in interest rates can cause rapid, significant changes in fair values of fixed-maturity securities and the net gain position, as discussed in Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk.

For federal income tax purposes, taxes on gains from appreciated investments generally are not due until securities are sold. We believe that the appreciated value of equity securities, compared with the cost of securities that is generally used as a tax basis, is a useful measure to help evaluate how fair value can change over time. On this basis, the net unrealized investment gains at ~~March 31,~~June 30, 2020, consisted of a net gain position in our equity portfolio of ~~$2.523~~$3.565 billion. Events or factors such as economic growth or recession can affect the fair value and unrealized investment gains of our equity securities. The five largest holdings in our common stock portfolio were Apple, Microsoft ~~Apple Inc.~~ (Nasdaq:~~AAPL), JP Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM)~~MSFT), BlackRock Inc. (NYSE:BLK), Accenture Co. (NYSE:ACN) and ~~Honeywell~~JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:~~HON)~~JPM), which had a combined fair value of ~~$1.312~~$1.719 billion.

Unrealized Investment Losses

We expect the number of fixed-maturity securities trading below amortized cost to fluctuate as interest rates rise or fall and credit spreads expand or contract due to prevailing economic conditions. Further, amortized costs for some securities are revised through write-downs recognized in prior periods. At ~~March 31,~~June 30, 2020, ~~605~~242 of the ~~3,945~~4,010 fixed-maturity securities we owned had fair values below amortized cost, compared with 157 of the 3,911 securities we owned at year-end 2019. The ~~605~~242 holdings with fair values below amortized cost at ~~March 31,~~June 30, 2020, represented ~~21.8%~~7.9% of the fair value of our fixed-maturity investment portfolio and ~~$195~~$53 million in unrealized losses.

~~464~~•197 of the ~~605~~242 holdings had fair value between 90% and 100% of amortized cost at ~~March 31,~~June 30, 2020. These primarily consist of securities whose current valuation is largely the result of interest rate factors. The fair value of these ~~464~~197 securities was ~~$1.966 billion,~~$773 million, and they accounted for ~~$65~~$21 million in unrealized losses.

~~123~~

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•40 of the ~~605~~242 fixed-maturity holdings had fair value between 70% and 90% of amortized cost at ~~March 31,~~June 30, 2020. We believe the ~~123~~40 fixed-maturity securities will continue to pay interest and ultimately pay principal upon

maturity. The issuers of these ~~123~~40 securities have strong cash flow to service their debt and meet their contractual obligation to make principal payments. The fair value of these securities was ~~$453~~$159 million, and they accounted for ~~$90~~$29 million in unrealized losses.

18•5 of the ~~605~~242 fixed-maturity holdings had fair value below 70% of amortized cost at ~~March 31,~~June 30, 2020. We believe these fixed-maturity securities will continue to pay interest and ultimately pay principal upon maturity. The fair value of these securities was ~~$58~~$7 million, and they accounted for ~~$40~~$3 million in unrealized losses.

The table below reviews fair values and unrealized losses by investment category and by the overall duration of the securities' continuous unrealized loss position.


(Dollars in millions)	Less than 12 months				12 months or more				Total				(Dollars in millions)	Less than 12 months						12 months or more						Total
At March 31, 2020	Fair value		Unrealized losses		Fair value		Unrealized losses		Fair value		Unrealized losses
At June 30, 2020													At June 30, 2020	Fair value		Unrealized losses		Fair value		Unrealized losses		Fair value		Unrealized losses
Fixed maturity securities:													Fixed maturity securities:
Corporate	$	2,168	$	176	$	52	$	5	$	2,220	$	181	Corporate	$	782	$	46	$	33	$	1	$	815	$	47
States, municipalities and political subdivisions	76		5		3		1		79		6		States, municipalities and political subdivisions	54		2		3		1		57		3
Commercial mortgage-backed	163		8		—		—		163		8		Commercial mortgage-backed	47		3		—		—		47		3
United States government	—		—		—		—		—		—		United States government	6		—		—		—		6		—
Foreign government													Foreign government	14		—		—		—		14		—
Government-sponsored enterprises	—		—		—		—		—		—		Government-sponsored enterprises	—		—		—		—		—		—
Foreign government	15		—		—		—		15		—
Total	$	2,422	$	189	$	55	$	6	$	2,477	$	195	Total	$	903	$	51	$	36	$	2	$	939	$	53

At December 31, 2019													At December 31, 2019
Fixed maturity securities:													Fixed maturity securities:
Corporate	$	199	$	2	$	118	$	3	$	317	$	5	Corporate	$	199	$	2	$	118	$	3	$	317	$	5
States, municipalities and political subdivisions	98		1		10		—		108		1		States, municipalities and political subdivisions	98		1		10		—		108		1
Commercial mortgage-backed	6		—		—		—		6		—		Commercial mortgage-backed	6		—		—		—		6		—
United States government	—		—		4		—		4		—		United States government	—		—		4		—		4		—
Foreign government													Foreign government	11		—		—		—		11		—
Government-sponsored enterprises	26		1		51		—		77		1		Government-sponsored enterprises	26		1		51		—		77		1
Foreign government	11		—		—		—		11		—

Total	$	340	$	4	$	183	$	3	$	523	$	7	Total	$	340	$	4	$	183	$	3	$	523	$	7

At ~~March 31,~~June 30, 2020, applying our invested asset impairment policy, we determined that the total of ~~$195~~$53 million, for securities in an unrealized loss position in the table above, was not the result of a credit loss.

During the second quarter of 2020, one security was written down to fair value through an impairment charge resulting in less than $1 million of noncash charges. During the first ~~quarter~~six months of 2020, 12 securities were written down to fair value through an impairment charge resulting in $77 million of noncash charges. During the first ~~three~~six months of 2019, there were no OTTI charges.

During full-year 2019, we wrote down three securities and recorded $9 million in OTTI charges. At December 31, 2019, 38 fixed-maturity investments with a total unrealized loss of $3 million had been in an unrealized loss position for 12 months or more. Of that total, no fixed-maturity investments had fair values below 70% of amortized cost.

Cincinnati Financial Corporation Second-Quarter 2020 10-Q

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The following table summarizes the investment portfolio by severity of decline:


(Dollars in millions)	Number of issues	Amortized cost		Fair value		Gross unrealized gain (loss)		Gross investment income
At June 30, 2020
Taxable fixed maturities:
Fair valued below 70% of amortized cost	4	$	8	$	6	$	(2)	$	—
Fair valued at 70% to less than 100% of amortized cost	196	938		890		(48)		22
Fair valued at 100% and above of amortized cost	1,627	6,323		6,848		525		137
Investment income on securities sold in current year	—	—		—		—		5
Total	1,827	7,269		7,744		475		164
Tax-exempt fixed maturities:
Fair valued below 70% of amortized cost	1	2		1		(1)		—
Fair valued at 70% to less than 100% of amortized cost	41	44		42		(2)		1
Fair valued at 100% and above of amortized cost	2,141	3,824		4,124		300		60
Investment income on securities sold in current year	—	—		—		—		1
Total	2,183	3,870		4,167		297		62


















Fixed-maturities summary:
Fair valued below 70% of amortized cost	5	10		7		(3)		—
Fair valued at 70% to less than 100% of amortized cost	237	982		932		(50)		23
Fair valued at 100% and above of amortized cost	3,768	10,147		10,972		825		197
Investment income on securities sold in current year	—	—		—		—		6
Total	4,010	$	11,139	$	11,911	$	772	$	226

At December 31, 2019
Fixed-maturities summary:
Fair valued below 70% of amortized cost	—	$	—	$	—	$	—	$	—
Fair valued at 70% to less than 100% of amortized cost	157	530		523		(7)		12
Fair valued at 100% and above of amortized cost	3,754	10,578		11,175		597		401
Investment income on securities sold in current year	—	—		—		—		33
Total	3,911	$	11,108	$	11,698	$	590	$	446

(Dollars in millions) Number
of issues Amortized
cost Fair value Gross
unrealized
gain (loss) Gross investment income
At March 31, 2020
Taxable fixed maturities:
Fair valued below 70% of amortized cost 18
$ 98
$ 58
$ (40 ) $ 1
Fair valued at 70% to less than 100% of amortized cost 536
2,522
2,372
(150 ) 27
Fair valued at 100% and above of amortized cost 1,266
4,630
4,858
228
51
Investment income on securities sold in current year —
—
—
—
2
Total 1,820
7,250
7,288
38
81
Tax-exempt fixed maturities:

Fair valued below 70% of amortized cost —
—
—
—
—
Fair valued at 70% to less than 100% of amortized cost 51
52
47
(5 ) 1
Fair valued at 100% and above of amortized cost 2,074
3,772
4,005
233
30
Investment income on securities sold in current year —
—
—
—
—
Total 2,125
3,824
4,052
228
31
Fixed-maturities summary:

Fair valued below 70% of amortized cost 18
98
58
(40 ) 1
Fair valued at 70% to less than 100% of amortized cost 587
2,574
2,419
(155 ) 28
Fair valued at 100% and above of amortized cost 3,340
8,402
8,863
461
81
Investment income on securities sold in current year —
—
—
—
2
Total 3,945
$ 11,074
$ 11,340
$ 266
$ 112

At December 31, 2019

Fixed-maturities summary:

Fair valued below 70% of amortized cost —
$ —
$ —
$ —
$ —
Fair valued at 70% to less than 100% of amortized cost 157
530
523
(7 ) 12
Fair valued at 100% and above of amortized cost 3,754
10,578
11,175
597
401
Investment income on securities sold in current year —
—
—
—
33
Total 3,911
$ 11,108
$ 11,698
$ 590
$ 446

See our 2019 Annual Report on Form 10-K, Item 7, Critical Accounting Estimates, Asset Impairment, Page 61, and updated in this quarterly report Item 1, Note 1, Accounting Policies.

Item 4. Controls and Procedures

Evaluation of Disclosure Controls and Procedures – The company maintains disclosure controls and procedures (as that term is defined in Rules 13a-15(e) and 15d-15(e) under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (Exchange Act)).

Any controls and procedures, no matter how well designed and operated, can provide only reasonable assurance of achieving the desired control objectives. The company's management, with the participation of the company's chief executive officer and chief financial officer, has evaluated the effectiveness of the design and operation of the company's disclosure controls and procedures as of ~~March 31, 2020~~.June 30, 2020. Based upon that evaluation, the company's chief executive officer and chief financial officer concluded that the design and operation of the company's disclosure controls and procedures provided reasonable assurance that the disclosure controls and procedures are effective to ensure:

•that information required to be disclosed in the company's reports under the Exchange Act is recorded, processed, summarized and reported within the time periods specified in the Securities and Exchange Commission's rules and forms, and

Cincinnati Financial Corporation Second-Quarter 2020 10-Q

Page 66

•that such information is accumulated and communicated to the company's management, including its chief executive officer and chief financial officer, as appropriate, to allow timely decisions regarding required disclosures.

Changes in Internal Control over Financial Reporting – During the three months ended ~~March 31,~~June 30, 2020, there were no changes in our internal controls over financial reporting that have materially affected, or are reasonably likely to materially affect, our internal control over financial reporting. There was no significant impact to our internal controls over financial reporting while the majority of our associates are working remotely due to the COVID-19 pandemic. We are continually monitoring and assessing the pandemic to determine any potential impact on the design and operating effectiveness of our internal controls over financial reporting.

Cincinnati Financial Corporation Second-Quarter 2020 10-Q

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Part II – Other Information

Item 1. Legal Proceedings

Neither the company nor any of our subsidiaries are involved in any litigation believed to be material other than ordinary, routine litigation incidental to the nature of our business.

Item 1A. Risk Factors

Our risk factors have not changed materially since they were described in our 2019 Annual Report on Form 10-K filed February 25, 2020, and subsequently updated in our quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the period ended March 31, 2020, filed on April 27, 2020, other than ~~as discussed~~described below.

The outbreak of COVID-19 could result in an unusually high level of losses.

In March 2020, the outbreak of COVID-19 caused by a novel strain of the coronavirus was recognized as a pandemic by the World Health Organization. The outbreak has become increasingly widespread in the United States, including in the markets in which we operate. Risks to our business include legislation or court decisions that extend business interruption insurance to require coverage for COVID-19 when there was no direct physical damage or loss to property. These actions would extend coverage beyond the terms and conditions we intended for those policies, ~~meaning~~including policies that do not contain specific virus exclusions. Therefore we would be forced to pay claims when no coverage was contemplated and for which no premium was collected. These amounts could have a material, adverse impact on our business, financial condition, results of operations or cash flows.

Cincinnati Financial Corporation Second-Quarter 2020 10-Q

~~A weaker economy could result in reduced insurance premium revenue.~~Page 68

The outbreak of COVID-19 could have adverse impacts on economic activity that affect demand for insurance or cause substantial disruption to our distribution channel of independent agents, due to self-isolation, travel limitations, business restrictions, and otherwise. Many areas within the United States have imposed mandatory closures for businesses not deemed to be essential, and it is currently unclear for how long such closures will last. Though most of our employees are able to work remotely, these closures have affected agents, through which we sell our products and services, or their clients, which could result in significant declines in premium revenues. In an effort to support insurance consumers during this pandemic, most states where we market our products have issued mandates or requests such as moratoriums on policy cancellations or nonrenewals for nonpayments of premiums, forbearance on premium collections, waivers of late payment fees and extended periods in which policyholders may make their missed payments. Such actions may result in delayed premium receipts, disrupting cash flows and increasing credit risk from policyholders unable to make timely premium payments. Cash flows and gross premium receipts may also be affected by mid-term adjustments to exposures on which premium calculations are based to reflect the economic impact of the COVID-19 crisis on insureds’ business operations. The amount or duration of the effects could adversely impact our business, financial condition, results of operations or cash flows. Such adverse impacts may be material.

~~Financial disruption or a prolonged economic downturn could materially and adversely affect our investment performance.~~

The outbreak of COVID-19 has contributed to recent significant disruption and volatility for financial markets and decreased economic activity, reducing the valuation of investments. Many companies have experienced reduced liquidity and uncertainty and could cause our investment income or the value of securities we own to decrease.

In the event that these conditions recur or result in a prolonged economic downturn, they could adversely impact our financial condition, results of operations or cash flows. Such adverse impacts may be material.

Item 2. Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities and Use of Proceeds

We did not sell any of our shares that were not registered under the Securities Act during the first ~~three~~six months of 2020. Our repurchase program was expanded on October 22, 2007, to increase our repurchase authorization to approximately 13 million shares. Our repurchase program does not have an expiration date. On January 26, 2018, an additional 15 million shares were authorized, which expanded our current repurchase program. We have 12,376,785 shares available for purchase under our programs at ~~March 31,~~June 30, 2020.

Period
Total number
of shares
purchased

Average
price paid
per share

Total number of shares
purchased as part of
publicly announced
plans or programs

Maximum number of
shares that may yet be
purchased under the
plans or programs
January 1-31, 2020 —
—
—
14,876,785
February 1-29, 2020 1,009,670
$ 110.26
1,009,670
13,867,115
March 1-31, 2020 1,490,330
97.44
1,490,330
12,376,785
Totals 2,500,000
102.62
2,500,000

~~Item 6. Exhibits~~


Period	Total number of shares purchased	Average price paid per share		Total number of shares purchased as part of publicly announced plans or programs	Maximum number of shares that may yet be purchased under the plans or programs


~~Exhibit No.~~	~~Exhibit Description~~
~~3.1~~
April 1-30, 2020	—	$	—	—	12,376,785
May 1-31, 2020	—	—		—	12,376,785
June 1-30, 2020	—	—		—	12,376,785



Totals	—	—		—

Cincinnati Financial Corporation Second-Quarter 2020 10-Q

Page 69

Item 6. Exhibits


Exhibit No.						Exhibit Description
3.1						Amended and Restated Articles of Incorporation of Cincinnati Financial Corporation (incorporated by reference to the company's Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended September 30, 2017, Exhibit 3.1)
3.2						Amended and Restated Code of Regulations of Cincinnati Financial Corporation, as of May 5, 2018 (incorporated by reference to the company's Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2018, Exhibit 3.2)
31A						Certification pursuant to Section 302 of the Sarbanes Oxley Act of 2002 – Chief Executive Officer
31B						Certification pursuant to Section 302 of the Sarbanes Oxley Act of 2002 – Chief Financial Officer
32						Certification pursuant to Section 906 of the Sarbanes Oxley Act of 2002
101.INS						The instance document does not appear in the interactive data file because its XBRL tags are embedded within the Inline XBRL document.
101.SCH						XBRL Taxonomy Extension Schema Document
101.CAL						XBRL Taxonomy Extension Calculation Linkbase Document
101.DEF						XBRL Taxonomy Extension Definition Linkbase Document
101.LAB						XBRL Taxonomy Extension Label Linkbase Document
101.PRE						XBRL Taxonomy Extension Presentation Linkbase Document
104						Cover Page Interactive Data File (formatted as Inline XBRL and contained in Exhibit 101)

Cincinnati Financial Corporation Second-Quarter 2020 10-Q

Page 70

SIGNATURE

Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned thereunto duly authorized.


CINCINNATI FINANCIAL CORPORATION
Date: July 27, 2020

~~CINCINNATI FINANCIAL CORPORATION~~
~~Date: April 27, 2020~~

/S/ Michael J. Sewell
Michael J. Sewell, CPA
Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President and Treasurer
(Principal Accounting Officer)

Cincinnati Financial Corporation ~~First-Quarter~~Second-Quarter 2020 10-Q

Page 6671



(Dollars in millions, except share data)	At March 31,			At December 31,
	2020			2019
Total investments	$	17,876		$	19,746
Total assets	23,367			25,408
Short-term debt	114			39
Long-term debt	788			788
Shareholders' equity	8,042			9,864
Book value per share	50.02			60.55
Debt-to-total-capital ratio	10.1		%	7.7		%