Square benefits if Covid recovery is slow by participating in the distribution of federal funding. Cash app was slow the first time around for stimulus checks due to needing to integrate with government systems. Round 2 should be a big boost of users for Cash app and once the money is in the ecosystem, it will be very easy to use it via Cash card, P2P transfer, or by investing in stocks/crypto.
If Covid recovery is faster than expected, expect Square PoS and gross transaction volumes to increase as retail opens up.
Square also sees tailwinds from the Robinhood fallout as well as increased buzz around payment/investment companies as Ant Financial IPO continues. Considering US GDP per capita is 8-10x China and Ant financial has a $100B prospective market cap, if Square can build out the ecosystem that Ant Financial has in the US, it could join Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Facebook, and others as a $1T+ market cap tech giant.