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Nutrien (NTR)

Participants
Richard Downey VP, Investor & Corporate Relations
Charles Magro President, CEO & Executive Director
Pedro Farah EVP & CFO
Jason Newton Head Economist
Michael Frank EVP & CEO, Retail
Raef Sully EVP & CEO, Phosphate & Nitrogen
Kenneth Seitz EVP & CEO, Potash
Prashant Juvekar Citigroup
John Roberts UBS Investment Bank
Jeffrey Zekauskas JPMorgan Chase & Co.
Christopher Parkinson Crédit Suisse
Jacob Bout CIBC
Steve Byrne Bank of America Merrill Lynch
Joel Jackson BMO Capital Markets
Andrew Wong RBC Capital Markets
Patrick Fischer Barclays Bank
Vincent Andrews Morgan Stanley
Benjamin Isaacson Scotiabank
Adam Samuelson Goldman Sachs Group
Jonas Oxgaard Sanford C. Bernstein & Co.
Michael Tupholme TD Securities
Michael Piken Cleveland Research Company
Call transcript
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Operator

Greetings, and welcome to Nutrien's 2020 Third Quarter Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions].

As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Richard Downey, VP of Investor Relations.

Richard Downey

Please go ahead. operator. you, Thank and our everyone, Nutrien's call conference Good quarter welcome XXXX discuss third results to morning, to and outlook. us On with today Mr. phone is Chuck President and of Mr. Magro, CEO Nutrien; three CFO; heads and Pedro Farah, of our our business the units.

forward-looking could we contained these we about that Therefore, conclusions information. contain information. and future various were in assumptions results prospects make Certain and forecasts. conduct material this differ plans applied As those call, forward-looking statements our materially conference from expectations, in actual making

these as about are MD&A in to over recent now information to filed assumptions Additional factors our Magro. we Chuck Commissions contained Mr. Security form report, which our will and turn to with direct report the shareholders annual U.S. I Canadian and information call current our quarterly annual as and well most you.

Charles Magro

morning, Thanks, Richard, and good everyone.

off, all are your I safe and and hope First families you healthy.

been due particularly season consistent and a their strong the COVID-XX we and grower While underway to margins. Furthermore, global pandemic, an normal. economic in impact is strength the real XXXX. most potash to head fall the affordability U.S., demand even has of food nitrogen. resilient in global across industries seen for as into companies This to excellent the high, have as now and combination a demonstrating health The more prices underscores business growth have than crisis. and agriculture through is lower-than-expected and harvest resulting most production, application of ahead due is well Crop increased global is demand fertilizer

are XXXX. will optimistic application are the outlook we for fall result, season a on be we good. And positive the also As of

we by and I'd our this and our context long-term structural turning recognized third to expectation outlook of benefit for White quarter. impairment noncash quarter overview provide Before is and for phosphate noncash caused with The Aurora. in phosphate, price regions. low-cost Springs was the tax associated the mostly challenging a impairment our outlook, results This oversupply facilities on the like from based to on

usual a of due impairments benefit to rate tax earnings. shift of mix the of was legislation lower than the Our U.S. this tax in recognizing jurisdictional noncash and changes, quarter a combination

turning our higher XX% results. EBITDA solutions Now in the which growth ag X Retail and months, double-digit QX to gross included reported first in revenue margin.

continue benefits from acquisitions. to and the We strong organic deliver realized growth recent

variation by protection quarter lower-than-expected QX earnings to These third U.S. the acreage, in solutions primarily crop crop relatively bundling in impacted due ag was programs, and to million the combined dry shift in the in Retail $XX over with into belt. services Our from EBITDA last that application crop year, protection quarter. was weather-related market this in very protection The product competitive biggest were and pressure QX insect factors, down the XXXX. supplier conditions low created additional discretionary spend pressure low corn due

on However, U.S. crop gross our this are margins percentage higher protection both margins and a year. year-to-date basis,

capital over million to and working over of nearly the also significantly and past months. location We XX% XX per margins retail $X U.S. EBITDA continue report of lower selling

$X being this million in in million sales by Uptake additional delivered quarter rolled EBITDA over In inventory in sales, recommendation and third South $XXX tools, as The reduced from and by the fact, also year. crop target we end functionalities, digital of alone million seed during billion additional our greater nearly now the of also our planning an and new the acquisition. XXXX. last our digital Australia America Retail expectations, was of than platform strategic retail online are in now have plan. solutions Xx we all $XX proceed we quarter. out period ag the $XX to such over same continues of million, digital continues expect our have exceed of of And the year. in capture to XXXX $XX The and to integration synergy synergies ahead hit Ruralco in surpassed original this this

We digital we'll a up demonstration XX help November for digital will our of our to business. our for our the metrics platform leading new investor update, introduce of our benefits illustrate virtual provide and both to and tool leading customers

our Moving to wholesale the QX results for operations.

and fully year. results balance was our domestic offshore. into Our and sales early third committed is full strong again. for XXXX, this both book demand a Canpotex the from impressive production, order Potash of Potash quarter, in were is cost the perspective and operating domestically nearly

XXXX, $X was production fourth of do We sales scheduled the our than in turnaround quarter, which cost mines maintenance to cost production per increase per lower of due limit at and availability. tonne cash partly tonne will Our have efficiency gains. X

still expect best we our be perspective. to However, a from cost XXXX year

cost operating For fill lower with quarter, volumes, rates, nitrogen associated this higher reported and our summer we excellent ag-related largely program. sales

and down per our due the decision earnings feed operating nitrogen in the prices because of $X.X and uncompetitive billion global have operating of narrowed the made plant lower was And and $X.XX due we is difficult reduced lower industrial full nitrogen and our year-end, EBITDA U.S. XX%, associated to demand, billion. volumes rest to line annual on guidance to indefinitely are With at Trinidad guidance now rates. share the $X.X guidance largely curtail potash production of ammonia clear industrial However, and nitrogen and to smallest We intact, harvest to to sight complete adjusted $X.XX the of COVID-XX. a gas complex our EBITDA the to businesses to at with near adjusted costs. we adjusted impact our

crop the our business quarter. global fundamentals strengthened Now the over our past for sector. for have outlook input Overall, shifting to the

China have tight herd particularly We X%. food Safrinha demand hog and of in demand expect many and in U.S. is input for increased and other and both beyond have grower recovers supply feed oilseed and grain in imports they to previous structural, years. the up swine planting year. the domestic compared next and and months. been we crops XX% the for significantly believe most corn feed As key significantly, as tightened in supply demand regions Record and are are close crops the major past and prices summer fundamentals, oilseed to XX% This create planting by to Chinese elevated Prices from and fever. for a XXXX crop to X quickly grains increase average have African over U.S. to boost result has as are margins will X into the soybean applications year crop of expected incentives grains soybean increased strongest the XX% and that. prices around the corn increased Brazil

underscores bumper While expanding growers planting strategically made is a our is in recent Australia, to Harvest in Brazil strong. working significant crop was in weeks. business prices delayed by dry and are weather, get sentiment the strong is full in and farmers bins, and Grower crop extremely important. have swing into why progress remained

have levels is regions, With Following which and global XX harvest, for increased strengthened significantly, the up shipment Potash all indicate will key consumption domestic for we out for outlook suppliers that warehouses Canpotex farmers XX key in million including set and October are believe at most product million program. potash tonnes. reached on another forecast are to XXXX expires, floor is we that orders tonne the prices early potash season. conditions $XX allocation. favorable Australian tightened rainfalls, XX maintain as successful above could place sold strong, the demand of are sales our contract of into taking other our market after weather China, per at in not XXXX. major and the rest summer global Reports China We fill markets XXXX.

to believe COVID-XX. This which macroeconomic impacts year a we significantly growth little was the about has in global For nitrogen, demand nitrogen reduced industrial we of year. this expect there delayed in by recovery the due demand,

global China and India market Brazil, provided in urea the firmed benchmark strong the the However, in and has are especially prices months. from North demand global prices, gap to with Ammonia also have should to prices rise supply natural close increase past lower over nitrogen few stability, recent pricing. gas the In with against Europe, combined likely America, support urea pricing. in help

this regions and economy, of lay XXXX, we low tools the an lead of expect operating located nitrogen commitments, new global delays And have historic supply the is to agriculture. include Nutrien online, next energy climate nitrogen in significant While there targets is or out sustainable change and market in half agriculture. most have sustainability prices after still and expected to limited tighten will innovation can encountered expects coming over With time. the the that global fundamentally capacity some first we of rates. new which capacity new wave our in the higher XXXX, where recovery demand, growing

this sign our at this encourage on details on our November more website. and to Day provide for we you XX, will We Investor on up

business look open while we XXXX. improved XXXX, our the compelling questions at to As XXXX, would for closing the results outlook on are for to for our -- strengthening. now the call quarter believe fundamentals We businesses your And see across on we in a we we solid out drivers business. execute our the and

Operator

Instructions]. [Operator

question Juvekar Our Citigroup. from with first is P.J.

Prashant Juvekar

phosphates. on a So question quick

oversupply. about take the outlook? You it? to that a at prices. into which of case this outlook auditors your sort filed due And timing competitor, how to phosphates do U.S. a you the was charge, next you a talk you consideration? Can do took there by structural like in make led X-year -- to just When that, led that write-down of you and the you higher Did take look a CBD charge

Charles Magro

Yes, Good morning, P.J.

ahead, So Pedro, Go Pedro. can your our questions. answer CFO,

Pedro Farah

into of auditors schedule So for very There was look a our assets. frequent certain our of that. course, do this. We reviews

prices impairment corroborated outlook the well. number and of was Board outside sources as review by think for phos the of different our was I with long-term a that a with triggered

sources. So but inside only it not also by outside was an corroborated forecast,

values carrying by prices were we could into margins no longer we the see that on those future. books supported our the and So are

Prashant Juvekar

going and was some ammonia with you're just if you initial Analyst of your know competitors and I about that? your to thoughts I on quickly, blue taken in wondering, just any But next And goals wondering steps have at was your climate Day. have -- green talk

Charles Magro

we course. do, of Yes,

at just goal leader plans that have look, we globally. start here's big introduce marketplace a Investor for we some the to Day. ultimate preview. our a But is So very to that, in And quick be to our will ESG

the of tools, probably excellent fundamentally So course, to the working, change the digital farm. now have we've really conducted in and industry a lot is best of the we on we think been agriculture an on way toolkit, our

of the Now our for footprint. that will own point course, be, starting

be footprint product you if from even low X/X slate. look on So just would of nitrogen to today, nitrogen, ammonia and your looking our say specific at And are yes, slate is, carbon. at I'd we sales question our our our what today product

use So the X/X that. ammonia, you if would our about already come from sales of phrase blue

a So we're production. already leader low-carbon ammonia today in

industry, issues at ammonia, technology We the through working player the every Difficulty]. [Technical in are and looking the and like green and we're economic major

Operator

The with question from next is UBS. Roberts John

John Roberts

sounded Can It you dropped hear like off me? there? things

Richard Downey

I hear Yes, a I Chuck, not part think it. of could

John Roberts

P.J. both may I Are Operator, we open? we Nutrien. lost think have

Operator

Okay. while We'll have standby the reconnect audio. we everyone

delay Difficulty]. Sorry there. for [Technical the

Pedro Farah

Operator, can you Farah. still me? hear Pedro

Operator

X to sounds else. It have hear like speaker line. able everyone I'm the we just lost

Charles Magro

operator, And as as line well my is P.J.'s? open

Operator

No. at that's the It's just your lines opened moment.

Charles Magro

I because P.J. hear Funny, can

Operator

music let's apologies. difficulty. Again, we'll looks conference just like so a moment. in my resume going on It the and have to [Technical everyone just little put Difficulty]. Okay, We're we're by. stand a having audio hold,

Prashant Juvekar

happened. now. me We I everyone. hear Hi, can I'm got what dropped not there. you sure hope

So I'm ask it. going him He I'm Chuck. to ESG, a to so P.J. going great repeat on had answer ask to

go So ahead, Chuck.

Charles Magro

Yes.

had Sorry a about P.J. call bit issue was the and that, a of dropped. technical We

a from perspective, sales product our be I'm production. product look us, in at to big sure slate sustainable So hopefully, nature of of at ammonia everybody be hear for actually you we are be caught. obviously, ESG have change And and around you to the if and would our we footprint But slate. much looking climate today, and now. leaders not nitrogen specifically And how X/X look, can low-carbon considered existing our me whole agriculture. plans our And about

ammonia, you So a if the that's you're what in leader phrase And use ammonia blue we would production. blue with. today, can be comfortable

through But about to the overall perspective, really the We climate the that's are looking economic more that. an change stakes. working and at issues. And time, have options. green just We're right technology -- that table say we'll from impact at ammonia

in probably on building -- carbon structured to that. very really our have different been investing We look If farmers want and technology business model. you uniquely sequester we're is to at And Nutrien to help -- how other tools that's objective really is and of is. our significantly other we the monetize and change to because our positioned really what than farm integrated peers happens

phenomenal be And we've time sequester built goal of So just that, course, agriculture to we product think farmers change. that with needs more just soon. help we'll over really now, and how about slate talking that's a to monetize carbon help overall and climate to right is our to evolve because

So plan all roll our a to XX that's out November of encourage to a and of Day, at what participate. you Investor bit we preview I'd on

Operator

The next with is from question John UBS. Roberts

John Roberts

Last phase quarter, here. a was talking entering about Mosaic potash up market the new

optimistic were While another call. optimistic Nutrien's overall. quarter you were improvement, XXXX I comments you're than sounds There's much more make last about of think, you restrained. last quarter, like It pretty sequential more

Charles Magro

end of quarter And months first talking the of crop we We've corn. the Yes. further it's prices John, look, we we prepared quarter. outlined second we're at remarks. in optimistic reasons the seen so the sub-$X end were more at about and rally. Six the were than third certainly ago, overall

about talking increasing demand in substantially, we're corn. including crops China. Inventories Now for have the $X is world tightened. around And

are enter we as XXXX. we feeling more and confident So certainly better

when to potash be is the potash, say, guess Certainly, about would That they've fundamentals, improved you would we million our look, if specific X this Now demand overall at tonnes. demand, throughout look up think I today. about yes. year.

think industry. really to a has that continue event So demand And been in will nice the we grow. XXXX,

time be that of where We globally at are think they also year. inventories this should

are And see market if the potash supply contract at potash to believe is new very than shipping the do position, clearly that quite the domestic should easily into to in product they to expired. continue happen is that you're a pricing is more And need come that you China We in going so And that but on that remarks inventories said China little will bit There higher grow. pricing. into the that bit a of think the China product. look we low what needs and prepared now Nutrien's contract absorb we not Canpotex growth that. is has inland the the market,

bodes enter we're the negotiation XXXX. not So potash. think good we a overall, well, for I all China, contract in demand core all as And only think, seeing for but this in I markets

potash for are market. feeling on us, bit better a our little focused we're about So yes, the we And also costs.

done $XX, cost. of continue the at more to shows able I grows, So as prepared integration the the investments another It market tonnes the since put And quarter we've merger on lower that think to and the be to we're $XX And low that into cash we'll market cost. we've well focus put into cost. potash the business.

as that we head into So position XXXX. we like

Operator

next Jeff The with from question JPMorgan. is Zekauskas

Jeffrey Zekauskas

company. Retail much the you value? the Do question increase the whether the what whether separated are for you're know of the secondly, us more. let you And And be should capital revisit of Can XX% to differentiating changed retail they very expenditures business? shareholder of now Retail revenues more time? over It's and ever

Charles Magro

Good Jeff. morning,

little and Pedro. then So I'll second Pedro CapEx, question. talk bit back Go I'll a and come answer have about ahead, your

Pedro Farah

Yes.

restrictions, COVID do crowd where in $X we couldn't of And that to a the we, billion of and between The guided little due turnarounds of less. that. So NPK. for is bit billion some capital. because a relation actually the we had bit that we A coming this lower normal Retail course, for good to CapEx, been is spaces portion sustaining year than has couldn't of $X.X some

billion. year. approximately are trying to next some $X.X guiding We're of recover be to So we that

looking In more Retail, are more towards of Brazil. digital at more and still leaning capital, we investment terms

in So capital to of the capital. allocation investment preference that for terms our be continues

Charles Magro

company only other got frequency, metrics of in it on question Board some the policy And model, this have. this flow cash you put for shareholders very course, long-term the the stable optimizing when of talked specifics the our that investment that say at have It's our just how growing. a What peers actually way at our do We bottom paid then is leverage And frequency. significant with because that would capital, love attractive we because front the that we And the the all look of constantly investment for you the look we dividend way the We're our I how the we It's recover, on than through. value. at market at this look very shareholder is to the interest other the at and overall at right we management the monitor that the relative model. on comes you of our structured. we And our a the crop dividend we right we team have structured, we've around recover, at getting company terms portfolio. revisit and well whether look are We more industry very that is though, to a some that market have earnings, of of is of And the are of shareholders to allocated if stable. a our And cycle, the has they just say much Nutrien doorsteps. And to wait many shareholders. reason right look so the as where is it's of whether which ensure been would your this. we've with the as it's many the does have the now, policy. a some performed we're to tell not where point, in free or still to volatility how upside. operating look businesses. that healthy our valuation And we today, economic strategy model portfolio. to company we drive that now players does in there the I the as market input And to have then if structure with at I'd shone as really we the parts, integrated what we attractive look think is in, then the when conditions, in inputs, it's that crop integrated model or rates has we it's the at space, market market, is we with which a of are the hope today, dividend And integrated

So the proven integrated leverage show have unique combination in I space. is we agree and less material to think and that still model, I companies to been And has the think, significant upside. would downside for most shareholders industrial that the a that, risk

Operator

question with Crédit from Parkinson next is The Suisse. Chris

Christopher Parkinson

just markets to to front. I bit drill the And It actually want does throughout certain it that appears a appear are down little potash rebound Asia. on really China. confident you're in that a more beginning turn in

there's So 'XX we should perspective, articulating filter forward-looking grains, Do going into And of the your FMV, a views, and thinking how think heading just complete coarse and estimates? be general analysis into on demand that how dynamics? region, you're which oilseeds does overall even your the forward? in your 'XX, upside you regional about

Charles Magro

Go and Ken. maybe have our go I'll give morning, just world Good leader around for Potash you Seitz, ahead, perspective. the business Ken Chris, his of quickly

Kenneth Seitz

Chuck. Thanks, Great. and Yes. thanks, Chris,

inventories to, into talked price, as reflected in but and some confident And low there yes, are bit strong domestic moment, above there, inventories the seeing Chuck at that's demand that the a fall. tonnes why we're owing it's about the So well. and inline X million China we're

demand, good and than potash contract inventories price to robust economics averages. we very their to the be year than we're expect year-over-year season be lowest good. in farmer end India going continue great a into in lower usual, crop, Indian will we're market the as expect in as about with we world, fall India, historic negotiation China. XXXX, we've kharif the year. the to So confident been has seen, lower that And with

see in XXXX is that strong well MYR And plantation and in now Malaysia, the XX oil of Indonesia very in per XXX expect to tonne, north terms as so and owners for demand palm India the well. you we that affordability. price MYR potash can bodes of

U.S., we Brazilian fall expecting are finally, strong and market as well. there. in farmer growth expect a into potash Brazil. we're farmer So affordability the And the very for The economics growth strong Asia some continues And in But U.S. then into we're very just to excellent Southeast having XXXX. the be in again, XXXX, in

affordability, have strong we're fall. the application great potash We seeing and farmer a great weather, into

up well for teases -- and that said, lower as board XXXX, the so Chuck growth, expecting inventories then And pricing well. favorable as demand and across yes, into

Operator

Jacob from is question next CIBC. The Bout with

Jacob Bout

you And pressure? if little pressure year. about the this bit retail EBITDA about know talked that's in driving this the normal? this? So trimmed what's a then you margin you Crop just Is guidance I for Can Protection. competitive is new talk case, the

Charles Magro

Yes.

what I'll can So his he the the into towards forward then year XXXX. on and end and guidance, then give talk going of about Mike can Frank give sees -- Jacob, perspective you you Mike

overall, was of is what the and higher because and lower costs. EBITDA modestly nitrogen. was prices higher addressing, range with in just last down. tweaks then pricing slightly top and Potash just were of guidance raised as of we because the gas and nitrogen end did look, There some we the minor volumes So took guidance was modestly potash question

bit unusual Our QX in for biggest Retail. change that in our the Retail, to a seen And why if think there guidance Retail. look that we at we've in you year is overall what lowered are to was drivers I this that. is, X But guidance

planet first The the is lower acreage.

late as October. as was their So of tweaking the USDA still numbers

So corn and quarter acreage a pressure. know lower. belt because and -- that. higher in lot dry year. planted not in pest expecting had be had others was many we protection, crop weather -- also now QX But that throughout the third think softer the I would of of the we We in we we a were expecting, And application

my all certainly driver. pressure the protection remarks, the in most another is some pricing last give protection Mike did crop of we in we So combine prepared deflationary of to say that And have we But which just seen and upstream And I that is this when would specific. competitive the in of view XXXX. introduce topic, think some which his because was competitors. we that, I that then crop as get through you have on this the what that QX is into I'll rest year market

go Mike. So ahead,

Michael Frank

thanks, Yes. Yes. Thanks, Chuck, and Jacob.

belt, look, margins, the impact So I was if QX inventory. us in QX. with the for half the deteriorated channel, and a you acres obviously, and were as were look ourselves lower, just big disease there of in was strong at included, our they The And insect to especially protection XXXX loaded Chuck fact crop mean, the that first treat. through mentioned, part corn up

it market. deteriorate so margins ended because And up that. being And of a saw hypercompetitive the we

event I think unique year. this a that's

past. the in that seen haven't We

repeat. And that so to wouldn't expect I

Ruralco impact just that about margins. to globally. where we the is impact are Ruralco on XX% we our The see protection to at the margins other going we're whole margins, year-to-date the They're if the protection through close of And Like to they're look Australia in XX%. have crop crop typically, XX% year our range.

commitments that inventory we much pretty of and the Ruralco, made off existing the the had we're XXXX that with So season, purchase they through inventory. for sell to all

portfolio. we'll ag across costing have XXXX, towards Nutrien Australia also And whole solutions we as look our so

we forward going And into 'XX. constructive to to as look margins also be so that's

Operator

of next from Our question Byrne Bank is America. Steve with

Steve Byrne

to see issues in Aurora Yes. Or your do about run Is curious global Springs I any is the whether prices just anything led or about technical and recent was White there's write-down. that there? subscale phosphate there just at unsustainable? you assets the structural potentially

Charles Magro

operator, technical back for repeat having seems question the Could call if issues you again. just us. hold? we're can Sorry, in put We're it the you on

Steve Byrne

Or recent suggest The the there's it that structural unsustainable? write-down solely prices question run supply phosphate technical your was and Springs to a and decision the White longer-term anything at and or phosphate on that is in contributed demand is Sure. assets or related scale assets? might about to whether outlook the Aurora

Charles Magro

what the businesses if the optimizing merger the since X we've look, of synergies companies phosphate think delivered the that that through the MOE part to was business, prior Well, done you about phosphate our in had. related we

And costs helped, thank of What for X our to We to candid be market supply did facilities oversupply in a the that of jurisdictions substantially. that. lot that to very And world. fundamental a so reason all and impairment, is the will we we X. we -- have though, increase. that we the increased continue goodness operating moved has from And the rates, around lowered that that view low-cost

And so they're players, assets world States, the our not United regional look when these at footprint scale. you in are strong but

that think we landed. business this this we diversify auditors, for look and all for it, we're really, years, all now, is down phosphate we've put -- and is the going our when fundamentally from this we we'll the for I to at you When done that over the triggered process so But our impairment. than, different which our that's when And of continue nitrogen say, drive our of long-term is phosphate the look the believe together, taking business, focus the just with business the continue product outside at our where into that's look by last the now consideration what way is we the and to potash business conducted X costs to finance very opportunities. slate, or organization outlook

Operator

Joel Capital from BMO question is with Markets. next Our Jackson

Joel Jackson

palm oil. talking You're about

So a Asia. Southeast that Southeast and like to lead should are lot would a I improving think forecast, prices of things side, think prices surprising in potash Malaysia, that, how upon if some Asia? potash diesel renewable demand would lead to risen lot the it's that You you been in haven't higher forecast really in all bullish Indonesia, palm of next two, year or that but spoke oil

speak would could So can you that -- When Anything bullishness? does out you Does can about some happen? in that add be help it of you play helpful. potash? long-term

Charles Magro

Yes, Joe.

have dynamic. you I'll the a Newton, on industry. is just the then couple our do comments what Jason So Chief I'll oil I'll of address And give broader palm potash Economist,

go So ahead, Jason.

Jason Newton

Good supply seen of bottoming helped morning, demand factors Joel. a oil the out since palm market Yes, we've really and combination May. in

So moving driven. we're hasn't had negative there. from impact supply of availability XX% labor demand It's that some also which and Malaysia, up on production around has and is to Part it migrant been time. since

So we've in China. seen strong demand

look mentioned, demand been well. longer As And is biofuel supportive strong we which have then the has we dynamics, as think I India as also term.

market, the always that and spot in think Brazil markets performed I markets, in spot if other what's in U.S. you have the at lags look happening it the prices especially how granular

where the and never we and they as the in XXXX think given certainly I line the along where in more saw it's go late they than so lot versus fundamentals haven't today low the at market in Brazil. And has region. for into by it Brazil, toward look But did support prices you amount. in that relationship, there's fundamental they that of same as prices look are And Malaysia, been we if prices historically. in increased a And the Indonesia XXXX,

Charles Magro

Yes, Joel.

think There's to we then, globally for there. view the if China, interesting a from pretty demand covered really structural it's there. and some in I what you perspective fundamental happening back I China, I The we're our but early well oilseeds. good of grains changes go seeing though, potash, think, nuance there's potash, So days, think and

well imports soybean the and China been levels. corn depleted. inventories see above can And historical have You

it's look So pricing see we also but benchmark much this China potash, higher for and at we global prices. than the for food, when

the the that's world and in more grow to lots think, a going I so I lot think, going are a but I we would major hog swine what with, last now because what's they're what happening as structural for if a professionalism fever, tailwind their for they're industry commercial drive, a around African is you look around it's and commercial rebuild in demand professional Chinese that's was becoming the the herd, doing these animals, And crops aspects crops. So change to headwind world. think a also, use it at year, way feed safer which call, bringing to which think I

I also NPK. And is so this crop for of all think, for fundamentals, positive, but

we've more this unfolds, our noticed that's say, view been we to we more is as X a And have so understand in the than now, are optimistic last why still of you've months. there's slight today X this some X last, maybe the to or for in change but kind And watching been that I'd quarters. X

Operator

The next Markets. Andrew with Capital question is RBC Wong from

Andrew Wong

ask on that question a nitrogen. think call. to wanted we've covered on of just I don't the much So

prices there's China. moving globally, nitrogen the it like here look coal with energy up lot going nat is gas curve, rising the weak, prices, they're cost Regarding oil looks like in are prices parts a of

Can what's outlook out? gas the there. margin the And bit Just AECO of a months? gone how a for XXXX, segment your cost you has bit X up, to good pretty Nutrien, obviously, into over XX a on but give next little play maybe you more specific just a still curve to might get preview us that

Charles Magro

good Andrew. morning, Sure,

that we industry. that certainly, has probably have or high we been at of level, and overly crop like around take like, the flat. up the and of really we've I'll unpack been the our so but ag industry, out. can fundamentals sort modestly, into or to impacted. because to of seen out the year, seen in nitrogen growth then that. originally last it late thought. it if can the be mix nitrogen going come that our for what is not what and things businesses that goes And stay you rest And earlier part takes the then is about also by recovery course, ag, then pushed But by business, Good been world year the has been declines So one of impacted demand but is a COVID, global the and was puts economy, this, for intended and in nitrogen. been pushed we've year industrial new that that is There's also call industry part off-line. The production is has around if this look, some there's it, the we I'll had industrial online a demand of general overall it nitrogen it of But nitrogen

but in would perspective as to would XXXX also will nitrogen The we're more complex is what come look probably than that see ag, we So in online. growth we from view be our the XXXX, year say economy new at And we XXXX going originally nitrogen supply recovers. that broader a for in next is industrial thought. as the balanced had

we think within supply year. be and potash the potash, in and XXXX growth on growth we potash, in coming some in but supply/demand that potash, compared where that. will more we demand good to will in think And -- good it that a tighten balanced next nitrogen -- XXXX As beyond there very see more is

Operator

is question Barclays. next from Duffy Fischer The with

Patrick Fischer

particular. China, Question just around in

that are than mentioned global higher prices had potash You internal prices.

can inside for while kind And see think it's of a corn. more delta you China. been thing of since where same there's ag seen you've in that the I value

net NPK, would you a whether relative a net or think China? first net for next year if you to year cut maybe So import/export exporter importer a across that take how this they're number changes

Charles Magro

going Jason just I'm for Duffy. that morning, through you. good to Okay, have Newton go

Jason Newton

Good that Yes, you it in lot time. good fertilizer outlook And than the it's consumption look China, if China. supports a And question. morning, stronger I we think definitely a ag been has in within some think Duffy. it's at

the across that numbers I this think seen if look you year, NPK. X for all at we've

in export we'd domestic in in year, that combination market, domestic this as next so looking with exports some continued million supply the -- line And year urea look So tonne we be ago. the year it roughly the X at reductions the balances, a and range, increased will will expect expect was decline. we demand where toward of domestically exports the Chinese

Chinese X million on domestically And of we XXXX. range reduce seen in and we've seen consumption which this So probably XXXX, Phosphate, lower should tonne the of urea year, Shipments of potash consumption in trend we export in increased domestic the increased the continue decline XXXX. side, in already have then same there. surplus exports in exports expect that to are down.

in expect XXXX depending strong happens in in as we As XXXX, year, we consumption get imports look we on in China. increase but late a again growth what domestic modest into this shipments, towards with

Operator

is next Andrews from Stanley. Vincent with Your question Morgan

Vincent Andrews

to more Hub natural the into the AECO, down bit a want Henry little just drill gas equation I piece. on

shows about following just anticipate Just chart the a Henry generally looking the narrowed. advantage what recently, whether advantage maybe we But since at if further spike AECO Slide end talked in it. Hub, and AECO XX, not? we've of curious causing always think And then do that And is it you'd more that? last or you see year, that has

Charles Magro

Okay, our good Go Phosphate, Vincent, of Head morning. Raef Nitrogen question. can Sully, ahead, and take Raef. that

Raef Sully

Thanks, Chuck.

So LNG to just which increase. seeing We're pushing up maybe to to pushing come prices a that are position, gas natural European reiterate mentioned. of curve. see prices current seeing up, is we're an Chuck the them year. the Henry right AECO more and some you a that's things of that production the prices at advantage Hub see. We of there available we'll up. lot AECO There's through still think Globally, next

to capacity around But just of I there's that, uncertainty is Henry Henry Hub. because it's the we range. lot it despite Hub will some think in -- there that the Likewise, think election. be to advantaged available at XXX XXX moment So of a still

amount a LNG is and come prices and So they AECO come the But prices rest up compared the the the may of up again, Henry Hub in world. to little. capped

enjoyed pretty So of competitors some our to our that gas we other think footprint low have prices recently. will a advantage position have

Operator

question with Ben Scotiabank. next is from Isaacson The

Benjamin Isaacson

have or guys consolidation, potentially a from for about clear et views given nitrogen talked lowering cetera? offshore in point at shifts past a least debottlenecking. your to respect about of what noncontrollable to over You've view. the nitrogen? investments, on midterm, controllables, the When with or mix strategy it very comes outlook product your is What You costs

Charles Magro

questions, Ben. you those Yes, good take want do please? Raef, to morning,

Raef Sully

no Chuck. Yes, problem,

look, controllables, on So things a of number the here. that focused on Ben, there's we're

in first making sustaining that focused is X with the push big improve reliability our on to the by starting The is years equipment. equipment a of We've matter. of had that the last things the sure capital reliability

beyond that on and watermark push on that a the seen have XX% capacity this We're at around up come reach track high try now. We're few year next to -- You've utilization. in years. to to going XX%,

increased also that with flexibility $XXX allowed capacity has products. We have invested million more about in us downstream

the allowed to that's UAN, So well has served move us ammonia into sulfate. ammonium also and and urea molecule which us

on a And brownfield additional, These expansions. very We are these expansions. I are on, product regional flexibility to greenfield what basis. focused brownfield low have again, identified call, expansions cost compared mix,

reliability. flexibility. regions extra on also efficiency, at need are and so -- that energy the we're So looking at They we and individual again where focused

flexible, the our you we we reliability so to equipment a application have. improve in the be product And of handle to us that to more get the see I continue will the should also windows. little mix able see us mean, variability some allow And of

Operator

Adam Samuelson Goldman The next question from is Sachs. with

Adam Samuelson

retail. trying to environment So as But the fast soy or in a as more to see considerably XXXX, that skewed the at maybe still environment current little we and to favorable, see more and Brazil next could growth leverage price of grow question really, lack an OpEx retail operating investments is [indiscernible] we on planting additional think OpEx year. as just and And next the prices. mean profit to is kind corn year? think crop Nutrien out is a that digital we in there we Ruralco in Do step-ups gross that than or slowdown faster in about

Charles Magro

Good to that Mike, want morning, question? do Adam. you take

Michael Frank

Sure.

You Chuck. bet, morning, Adam. Good

this about acquisitions, Brazil. couple in we particular, talk over me year. medium-sized XX% this let So OpEx, OpEx the but is a The acquisitions Ruralco, majority, coming in of had of increase vast year firstly, also from

we at that those we're don't this are growth impact same acquisitions where going year. big to of have Right into into that kind seeing our that's have now OpEx going this XXXX time so XXXX, year. And

programs. sentiment, less prices whether government grower into harvest, an the probably seeing And year, than right, out. was And so stable strong yield, inflation. good support growth I next expect more terms in now. we're early And you're play that right it OpEx of would good Look, obviously, going it's a U.S.,

soil of terms number Waypoint seed on come are also we've from had record samples into of a And standpoint Analytical fertilizer up. lab record seen a applications, the Our October bookings network. We've ground. getting a tonne our in

into are 'XX be going we so to the starting they about crop how to really yields. that do are really on And maximizing seeing think investments focused growers make

extremely and grower the conditions the it's course, be Australia, good And a margins into are moisture looks going 'XX in to just strong. are again crop about really looking they're Of in same positive harvest once what season. Brazil, to

course, So our And across fundamentals. setting is on a case, And when things up there's would Chuck I positive between really X because are soy. sales those But get planted million terms impact, retail of of grower prepared obviously, remarks, was lot product that's and say the margins. there of in for right board, the strong 'XX all acres out now in from about there acres that mentioned for didn't as the play corn to plant. a planted year revamp business this

we're looking the into And season, expecting a in so U.S. at well. as as of think play we're lot to I those again, 'XX come back acres the

Operator

with Oxgaard Bernstein. Jonas from is question next The

Jonas Oxgaard

every are much thinking position it through of too and then this weakness? volume repeating pretty the same we're negotiating strong a lot sending year differently But a the I mean like talked about you the feels about from for of We China China applications. China and outlook sense upcoming year? potash strategic story in

Charles Magro

over the Yes. is happened last what the Look, think fundamentally way think about contract years. we couple this I than coming with of China different

if contract a recall, we only signed and October. you we signed being Canpotex So until

months it even wasn't time. last So XX

contract made Canpotex that in October. at was now contract after I we the is think believe it clear not that volume And that fundamentally shipping sustainable very any we the price not level.

potash And that then So as enter new don't that, volume look distinction. much we talk higher domestic than lot our year -- the you we've not is, is of that and today, comment important And is that early XXXX. price. more we couple differentiation in and of the for into volumes how think a we're forecasting we're the we'll very on made China I at price about a then contract that relying China already times a if XXXX,

I a So up have eyes, think dynamic. set in we different my

port and and always to what negotiation. at People the number. tough transparent going see referring contract is are constantly this they that's visible to a inventories, Now can be most the

is way Chinese believe I the only understand that So what going that. potash would prices I how question in is just the there's one by much. China, my from that are go to say But perspective,

Operator

Securities. next TD Tupholme The with from Michael is question

Michael Tupholme

the you about you you can feel can you I'm strongly about digital you've to you put seen wondering out? exceeded just do is the your you allowed of just what I'm forward? the robustness if think targets very talk And if know talk about think how that I it and you've in that that's strength well platform. you about wondering platform, going that

Charles Magro

Sure thing, Mike question, Frank, please? will you that take

Michael Frank

You bet, Yes. Chuck.

our sure digital portal. both has stayed our And that's busy wanted this expectations customers So the exceeded we in platform the Michael, come of was year on Obviously, our safe in we March make obviously, employees to the terms into and by healthy. revenue season. and got where that that aided COVID,

leverage And quarter is window. But in so the the thing even continue start we've to of quarter. that the and through tools turned that in the we third fourth good the them digital seen and really early

think I look, of benefits, we're So really big two that benefits the seeing. categories there's

Firstly, it's efficiency. around

at that capacity agronomists doing sales the it way. best are old our So

With to XX%. that digital probably able increase of number the these by they're tools, to XX% acres serve they can

also we're duplication them and more Just seeing to because the work. kind allowed make helped their less convenient growers a that reach of And in growers these tools decisions office back of way. a

get also can leaning that transactions there's the portal payments on we down portal anticipate through it's that our the we're and more of leaning and the seeing, more a we administration. And as administration so and digital do down more

other of multiple likely seeing, say, agronomists And both really, I would churning convenience. growers grower us. benefit is our The shelves sales buy online more convenience we're less. that are for engaging area well big as They're are as from example, to

we an this so do see avenue. And as

an it's avenue growth as drive well. us organic I to but think it's early for days,

Richard Downey

Operator, more we just question. for one time have

Operator

from with Cleveland Research. Our Michael final question is Picken

Michael Piken

market. the through briefly go to protection wanted seed and crop Just

XXXX? How price your now now a kind into causing that right little could talk in see terms with that's you that, pressure the seed out? some the of about mentioned competitive margins. You evolving retail cards of dynamics do bit of you And maybe

Charles Magro

Michael. Mike morning, Good Frank?

Michael Frank

Yes, Michael.

smaller the think year, had in particular, margins about So the protection effect the sold and QX in as already our look, obviously crop U.S. this in we through well Ruralco inventory as impact the mix market I the based of lowered overall competitive a QX talked on that that on we impact market. as and margins the just very Ruralco the our

margins proprietary would look say had on with we've margins than we performed season. seed They're strong portfolio, Now portfolio seed going and never product I strong the have proprietary year-to-date, we've our into are you products. side, at seed. our a look, Seed because I say 'XX well stronger would the on if our

And right that. I positive based growers grower going help are on to now, we So good feel focused really that's maximize yields. again, about on sentiment, the think seed

soybeans So that they cents $X of $XX.XX can take or corn. advantage

be seeing both we're so of Enlist our and less actually trading up, going ready soybeans. And soybeans, roundup that think roundup ratio ready Xtend in up year. we And soybeans, and are this LibertyLink probably to a less by XtendFlex overall two beans

on It's where on, have equation. the in on side. so on corn can I growers is it's seed. We're would is seed. on right that's making it's it. the sure so And getting are not would get I same now. competitive making more seed, focused sure there the seeing the it And best of best the they I extraordinary focus mean again, focused marketplace. we And really, the now that price the competition, market right But inventory than say, say, a is

Richard Downey

for My So may a any good in. follow-up Have it's Richard that day. Downey you morning, for for apologies joining for questions we Thanks who dialed everyone you but available here. difficulties us. this have. Thank technical the are

Operator

for concludes may and today's Ladies now call. you you conference gentlemen, participating, disconnect. and Thank this