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AVB Avalonbay Communities

Participants
Jason Reilley Vice President, Investor Relations
Timothy Naughton Chairman and CEO
Sean Breslin Chief Operating Officer
Matthew Birenbaum Chief Investment Officer
Kevin O'Shea Chief Financial Officer
Nick Joseph Citi
Rich Hightower Evercore ISI
Juan Sanabria Bank of America Merrill Lynch
Austin Wurschmidt KeyBanc Capital Markets
Dennis McGill Zelman & Associates
Vincent Chao Deutsche Bank
Drew Babin Robert W. Baird
Conor Wagner Green Street Advisors
Rich Hill Morgan Stanley
John Kim BMO Capital Markets
Alexander Goldfarb Sandler O'Neill
Call transcript
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Operator

Good morning ladies and gentlemen and welcome to the AvalonBay Communities' Fourth Quarter 2017 Earnings Conference. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode.

Following remarks by the company, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions].

As a reminder, today’s call is being recorded and now it’s my pleasure to turn the conference over to Mr. of President Vice Reilley, Investor Relations. Jason ahead go sir. Please

Jason Reilley

AvalonBay Thank XXXX quarter and to you. welcome Communities' earnings fourth Laurie, conference call.

as and Before There of that during with XX-K yesterday discussion company's we forward-looking statements is materially. actual uncertainties in of and may the filed note release begin, results XX-Q Form a be forward-looking may afternoon's statements, this are well and risks discussion. variety in a Form with uncertainties associated these as the There and please differ made press risks SEC.

and does this the press other an CEO usual, the used operating and during website attachment for As we to AvalonBay definitions encourage the may review available And www.avalonbay.com/earnings, reconciliations that which non-GAAP release to and in and you include and measures also his attachment results Tim? This over I'll discussion. refer our Chairman of is our call Naughton, financial with with today's be turn performance. financial Communities, remarks. of Tim of on terms, at to information

Timothy Naughton

our slides Jason, evening then Birenbaum. quarter I for available Thanks, all provide and us Sean, to in and are fourth Sean last welcome and today Kevin call. With Matt commentary management will be will we've Kevin O'Shea, posted Great. the me Breslin, of and Q&A afterwards.

for of outlook quarter as full well our as year will comments fourth then summary on focus a and the Our discussion of providing results, XXXX.

million. for And year. principally debt a fourth X.X% came in of the $XXX revenue and sales core growth X% at in $X.X and you FFO external and quarter capital, at let’s in and billion an in in about record developments over completed include cost X.X%, the start the year the the We the include include average through started this to lastly when in Same-store another Now $X.X the at of billion And year Highlights we an full initial year on redevelopment. or came new full X. X.X% redevelopment. raised quarter for now growth X.X% slide just much for or QX X.X% asset X.X%.

X, in roughly urban average X.X%, which rates slide of and current at The $X.X for rent development cap projected year, million and is infill of are submarkets. $XXX which in to the estimated completed rate billion XXXX created basket value. based past prevailing low yield, this well Turning upon of cap this assets, many roles located above expenses

opportunities. to acquisitions sold we Turning past of six on including and year. in under expansion allocated this the acquired management, slide purchase X, development the markets three portfolio others the of communities The terms were in focused Florida new first and Raton. to Northeast XXXX market recycle were continue capital our Southeast in into dispositions and asset focused will Boca we in the

in recognition the XXX social environmental, one focus in governance places companies investment number leaders area has to and the as all area. work, issues corporate this multiyear on where in and U.S. and earned estate our to real the Glassdoor's responsibility Turning slide nationally third satisfaction reputation we past this progress we're year other top one now apartment online as customer number engagement, X, of consecutive in named business for where including associate we to ranked made where for year, the the important REITs well, among among of this U.S. globally And in parts

X. Let’s to now turn slide

growth contributed flow has Our in platform to outperformance healthy this development cash previous cycle.

during year share core that which seven on basis we’ve outperformed annual years, basis basis, on dividend X,XXX last growth an a sector basis, that translates or X,XXX points XXX basis which points the also into cumulative share XXX annual per over the per nine the growth by by has equates FFO into Similarly outperformed compounded on about an years time. sector points basis period. cumulatively Over nine equates last compounded during in basis the points

for to outlook and our Let’s nine, slide turn XXXX.

outlook down for I roughly basis in in core thirds slide external in lease-up for our third cost basis growth of of of activity, points At the stabilizing growth of about of NOI driven to decline. or points two unit investment decline unit other deliveries Turn summarizes capital of growth and from XXX X% FFO XXXX from with points that or Again roughly now the deliveries expectation to of net completions enter highlights significantly FFO of lot but about roughly reduction. $XXX basis this we this we one internal with year. a driving on drivers ’XX the contributing to million growth economic stronger million assumptions growth. from off which much that major and I the development is it's the a here, drop that of million and in key XXXX, and $XXX as is do, of million momentum will from into FFO XX portfolio is of at outlook XX, XXXX, go include development of turn to of to $XX same-store X.X%, growth. core details components year. down as be won’t Some core some and expected want XX, as slide the of Starting expected and good the X.X%, be starts stabilized at contributing NOI XXX part growth midpoint, down share. $XX by communities be

the capital investment. cash to should healthy translate with expect the increases global growth repatriation corporate economy into in of this GDP reform. affects synchronized year accelerated and simulative benefitting is of schedules higher the and recovery expansion see from In tax cost stronger We sector, profits,

growth rising XXXX. wealth the and consumption record stimulate confidence in combined should better For consumer, with wage

demographics more and market. economic economic detail, growth to unintended I'll skip biggest in bit the to to address a from consumer U.S. Slides may both these So XX come by Fed driven expected to XX tightening any consequences risk, slide housing is another related to in year. drilldown this perhaps The the economic be outlook business over the the on policy. them to briefly XX themes community

And the continue support aged key peak family leading apartment doesn’t some it buying trends the to to demand, these stronger demand apart slide the maybe XXXX, cohort, you entering rental home years. offset the XX XX, those formation, trends consumer age of the report on demographic another So for next subcutaneous target delays prime edge until that XX, six by are years. can in several confidence, should now and of their The years. see fact millennials

production at XXXX. years be These do even single perhaps the seen rental, next favoring trends margin As we expect a slide, it's of housing favor need and the the Meanwhile, expansion per on few result, growth in that clear quarters. where multi-family in fall recently increases strongly or can more last sale sale XX decelerated the and actually seen in several family to without rent balance flatten after X.X%, demand slide over momentum pricing. the X%, for X%, starts has has and demand,

the relief few challenging quarters. it the some into over capital market ’XX. our Sean? markets that is some fundamentals outlook charts more I’m fewer to As deliveries sector appear demand to few should now in Sean for our with extent new it side challenging the and imposing who ’XX and portfolio to indicate, does translate going to providing or discipline on become construction and the over some bottom last the discuss next on as This financing on hand apartment the supply will year. supply

Sean Breslin

Thanks, Tim. right. All

some Turning slide insight to to provide demand. XX, on

workers for XXXX is growth the year, roughly country to of at demand On expect given which remains opened basically positions in expected markets a job and growth to accelerate see continue highs approaching most across rent modestly We our year. X during million to lower note, an by across positive being at cyclical employment. the the economy that’s U.S. the throughout year-end is constrained of

with XXXX. our labour Moving to other into expect that pushed expect in The deliveries what years indicates across new training be slide to high the we increase in result being markets, slide some to we municipalities deliveries modest supply to footprint XXXX. in we XXXX, but factors past few consistent experienced XX, similar in and relatively

the cycle down for Northwest X%. And In to roughly work pressure to will X% deliveries equalled have second Pacific terms and both regions, Northwest. California is is rent consecutive year, Pacific put are California in projected the increase growth. deliveries the Pacific stock of for the be the exceeded in on time beginning deliveries of to Southern first which

be in And pretty we in most With comparable exception supply of deliveries to through a XXXX. the of regions continues New which submarkets, urban to the reflects be reduce volume to Boston the slide XXXX. expect expected in is continue to pronounced the trend our XX, to to moving other England, market, deliveries

in deliveries pick is from to be a across with inventory our supply suburban For relatively of XXXX, increase in the while markets of up submarkets. increase the projected result expected in submarkets mainly X.X%. urban is XXXX, submarkets Supply to X.X% consistent X.X% in urban

Turning so as California, side takes is in San see in a the reduction be could there in to we combination revenue to Pacific the to note, increase of X.X% up deliveries Northwest, are XX, X.X% we to On upside a and or during employment resulting taper revenue decelerate the of expect improvement a same-store growth on modest in XXXX, toll XXXX. Both growth in Northern be in during deliveries below material to that midpoint the off, we’re slower an begin XXXX. rental X.XX% basis between in regions XX growth, starting the and performance. points positive most expected to some X.X% Jose fundamentals with region particularly generated expected

revenue stable XX, across now slide apartment second last XXXX. we we a levelling of started completed rates experience with same-store to half of the billion in trend growth $X.X slide we XXXX X,XXX year, represented to homes relatively about to record the off to consistent which turning Moving XX to markets. our And expect development, remain address throughout

deliveries, we development volume For duration are about $X of homes, the business reduced produced the the homes have we year. which we while at the billion couple X,XXX schedule those roughly includes in in expected function past be which the underway what The a of XX% underway, XX% is is started X,XXX of time jobs. construction to the during of delivered of to and only years XXXX, mix

from external reduced mentioned to As translates of FFO XXX-basis-points growth into activities. growth core the volume rate deliveries the reduction and contribution a our earlier, Tim

Looking volume. to XXXX, we expect XXXX deliveries be more line in forward to with

a about that, development to sheet. balance turn Kevin more So with bit the it Kevin? and to over I’ll talk underway little

Kevin O'Shea

Sean. Great. Thanks,

ongoing more had supply challenged. at markets slide in sheet development generate profit activity constraint balance certain a volume margins, new Looking elsewhere development were development XX, become attractive while and from perspective to continued on

in way is total projected per development XXXX from billion expected the billion remain as result, total per peak cycle for billion a XXXX. much enterprise or relatively to XX% than in our stable less and around As of in Consequently $X year development from amount have this $X.X $X XXXX year starts declined of to its has value. of about around declined at and

pursue the amount markets, limiting our managing we we on such selectively of development. land owned our on risk development for by As carefully more we remain ways in focused that

over XX million our at year As inventory basis kept you slide represents over on is of and lowest level land see we inventory million. decade total past our a XX, below end a years XXXX, mere have land our $XX the $XXX current at can points the in X [indiscernible]. At

us with we've development ongoing reduce development funding another substantially by way in lock-in which risk. underway. manage risk In capital and allows funding from discussed match is addition, development profit This substantially development before, long-term to as

our a match liquidity swap see of metrics can objective put place approximately XXXX. our against slide XXXX. credit development were X.X% continued this of development million to We yield match and XX-year remain these of being and On blended end strong flexibility. of reduce roughly at against profits, year-end X.X% approximately key slide XX% also book today. XX, we newly risk XX% in debt of $XXX consistent hedges funded we apply compared totaling XX-year financial XXXX, funded issued show XX% we several you intend business. year further the rate To on These treasury to with As reflect underway to hedges our in as to XX, as on

$XXX about remaining Specifically the at capital that of in be invested is relative year liquidity development. to end, we enjoyed excess to million

of NOI X.X high reflecting coverage all remains our time EBITDA our at at benefit high net-debt-to debt interest XXXX. amount addition, unencumbered secured X.X an of payoff times, significant in and In remains of times ratio with XX%, having the low

in schedule debt As next shown our that maturities well produced will the efforts XX, also on via the maturity and balance able few years, management well been over slide maturities addressed term past efficiently we've over company to serve our coming stagger years sheet a debt the substantially XX years. laddered remarkably near debt specifically have the

the a maturing a year of the So amount reasonable dividend in debt rate. not growth exceed our single does based on

In years from XX% overall our addition, over $X.X a year XX XXXX. more billion final debt than date that of maturity approximately has is end

a average believe with our we X.X on to We flexibility of it As had debt remainder turn a the Tim. through the back sector portfolio maturity weighted move debt sheet average underscores cycle. result, of we the this as years will differentiated versus years. our balance X.X And year's that, I of

Timothy Naughton

Well, thanks Kevin.

few Q&A. a for remarks concluding before Just opening up

growth XXXX healthy peak. fundamentals expected of Kevin the we and seventh near-term some We share. FFO continue most to stronger measured mentioned. FFO $XXX was we new should range. and although to the above completed the points, and balance development, ever, move last X% year, by rental down apartment as And we’ll development productive contribute in reach financial just to basis growth average be asset way to delivered a questions. couple pursue be with generating see In moderate open to lastly, flexibility the sector We to years the a maturities we’ll for the meaningfully as low to mentioned, net revenue reduced So $X growth happy our consecutive is the Sean to cycle. into the XXXX liquidity later And call demand, about for years. year. in XX million overall new deliveries lesser Laurie, this manage are per almost but current in we likely enhanced as And in sheet this Same-store billion cyclical value. are expect growth expected economic as at in risk of that, rate And growth to XXXX core

Operator

Citi. we’ll Please Nick to first at Joseph And [Operator go Instructions] go ahead.

Nick Joseph

should development, starting low, this cycle to and see or the the mentioned enterprise year. with of Maybe towards I in Thanks. land know are the inventory would development relative to a low a meaningful pipeline need last we what growth of remainder as around the percentage for a to starts cycle? expected you development XXXX But you to level of expect little increase remain value

Timothy Naughton

Hey, Tim. This with that. Nick, I’ll is start

'XX, free remove out time million given basis flow reasonable XX% markets, over level cash we the 'XX asset range yield equity can perhaps - the that fund If really to state to you of leverage just stocks to the look at of benefit to it That’s neutral fund just relative on the we our and the can in the $XXX And we bit looking looking volume now, being over a we maybe of $XXX think in million starts. amount state from near-term. the for or terms and right size is favour to without projecting we’re what sales. 'XX just are But of right little a what -- of debt period. really it’s down than do more 'XX

to So to we do over expect and it in three billion be $XXX years. next, $X the it range call the million

$XX land million We’re got pipeline, billion and of tight flexibility. costs. And look beyond continuing right at we give if development pursued options about use to focus $X costs of just almost only us you up the on

billion So we’re million really investment. controlling, with but its $X $XX

accretive gives the So are I continue company to of flexibility remarkable pursue least the where in near-term. us with in at to it’s the for for - the a think, it’s position still growth cycle in terms that we

to the cycle that line, markets three equity think, have view and a up a years. in to open perhaps a So years would it to take run has longer two I lot just bottom the next

Nick Joseph

be Thanks. markets, one And to year then decelerating but most your just on Seattle, year. to this the you’re projecting strongest relative last of also

years? have there when over to for you Just a in different it do want of on decelerate and to if software you next could colour out expect if that few get kind you some more the think look Seattle care more

Sean Breslin

I’m that. to talk is Yeah, happy Nick, Sean. about this

the In now expected about increasing, - terms roughly from supply to it’s has flier is for to to growth slow inventory to we’re continue of though around in the of XXXX and supply XXXX job so as talking XX,XXX the it several years of a is But jobs, X.X% mid-Xs. the years. XX,XXX XXXX, projected closer jobs been time growth been produce last in several to high of in at sort increasing same to job and set blistering that pace close for market as of Seattle, has

to So the within widespread units across you North markets Seattle, it's almost except X,XXX those are pretty or markets going end. sub XX and from maybe

to I on as in across what there, deceleration to So, major we're seen, of indicate to that’s already we our markets the forecast as would rents based expect we well the market sign see XXXX on starting what signs so we're in portfolio of some pull seeing but cliff, we've that there terms deceleration, slowly the absent us. employment based for comfortable back decelerate of throughout would where this employment the have say

Nick Joseph

given Is across would your potential I downside kind you then, of job this And expect and the that amount that actually still guidance portfolio market, just in give for the the 'XX obviously, of supply of for growth most kind pipeline but know market of meaningfully Thanks. increase. at year? won’t see you risk

Sean Breslin

only a going portfolio, portfolio, the X% in of mind, in year, move not the so our needle terms keep way. around For Seattle’s meaningful to of this in it's

much we most what the as supply on indicated, much deceleration the it but follow based of and elevated that’s nature that came up know. X.X% the it’s roughly more XXXX, pretty of growth from expecting we in of is fairly pretty of Seattle. magnitude job the supply. of could terms big deceleration appropriately, at I the you look think We reasonably is The weaker. what projected In in of And still as certainly it,

So what’s will in as projected for in if growth our expectation job XXXX XXXX a decelerate continue you to is XXXX well. in level and to see we’ll XXXX, soften continue similar supply with to of

Nick Joseph

Thanks.

Sean Breslin

Yeah.

Operator

ISI. Hightower next Rich Evercore We’ll move at to

Rich Hightower

and forecast apply not and good whatever, might clarification at how or be you metrics to on here, that in data, Hey, projects time. look how but differences? delivery any then given Can but in guys to think side, market, clarify definition would that actually question, just you we reflected understand I according their a follow-up of delivered perfectly Avalon’s that questions guys we've this any afternoon, Couple to got forecast want quick maybe just is is supply our we competitive about the to reflective your are methodology Seattle lease-up in what or at guys. fully supply. per dates On just and how aren’t internal you point guys that the on

Sean Breslin

more terms of active little such metrics, identify describe I where delivery anything can laid cetera. from do and assessment want Rich, two is it come terms add, start et out they from and at well. projects, sub macro, sure, different happy of we're are approaches, to what And Mat if way, which am as the of Hey can specific you this and in each the level. that regional they at for that thorough handicapping you our to has resources, to is markets that all duration really John. we our market which we to of data one pretty it is But the as in regions, expected if that first supply of have

[indiscernible] here as we in to their is think also local sources example, it In D.C. assessment of in I terms go some that, to advisor, delta market. an regional in the Seattle, market to addition like

of the we're process that a call have to all getting that, it with we you communities. identify in So of aggressively if ground of third-parties the sort addition The And within construction RS want involves listing in teams. to can input pipeline teams a single that way, from planning up then every process. we and or that’s market community their function our detailed both which region our development the to research our development stages different provide

going be, it’s in they et to the the in schedule up the somewhere everything process construction example the how Then they operating particular path and to what is local that it it’s team based start and with XX submarket picking because et lay by kicked competing building of of expected they’re building the et of who the an municipality, units terms the the of handicap cetera. of to nature it XXX they pipeline time, or on within product type they’re to period as of if at expected guarding So deliver some either as when final cetera, customers they, then the deliveries grassroots because has standard in in days that’s out terms would an in near-term permit in delivery cetera, over those deal first expect today and look by four, duration reasonable if days for example. case application preleasing and advertising in they’re

deliveries grassroots for the of error a this past has they’ve delayed is combination in rates have due our research their operations that we a historical team terms market, may all et little labour on a the all this deliveries, certain constraints market development footprint And done then market people in been been and bit. and terms of what view local important and in us, of deliveries we of based third-party cetera. projecting across assesses actually put where macro of then advisors together know our in that, cycle and challenges, So effort handicap the to particularly is x% municipality

thorough pretty a it’s but answer, to process. way long a we’ve So

Rich Hightower

conversely especially time, pipeline haven’t pretty at answer. in moment the in project maybe in that’s date of are a maybe yields know forward your development where for on projects that if you while about do I on you of a of of Also the closely yields development and about the rent last tightening seen over started how so you costs really color rising locked Fed in haven’t topic and we the markets that but And that cap years markets think few for that now same trending of those the think a growth then in market in rates up development, general? Sean, those see rates there. guys, do how evidence you those Yeah, going Thanks some projects? you see that great keep begins markets, as lot trending prospectively

Matthew Birenbaum

Hi, Rich, it’s guess and one. answer that try can Matt. I I

You’re we and to right, we today’s expenses, the until leased. are deal general, costs, that a when start to XX% the always deal And talking early that about today’s they got up but don’t deals have still today’s by forma about we the XX% were are a we in and rents not remark usually as rents, much least, then bit. be now on leading per lease in the little as continued have per by completed, the right at cycle, forma deals they in

those owned of pipeline, not what fact occasionally mid in so pretty and have those and starts price started the as up markets ongoing off. we But to there -- visibility and pressure we mentioned, with the all the today business - wise. Tim think the short-term ultimate whole basis, kind do with that pipeline XXs, that we see yield deals update why were will is be basket from downward controlling right the have some probably from deals good around entering of be. are remove deal the we’re But of billion an On we that development land going yet that’s $X us economics you’re are a only where some right, to $XX million that gross time-to-time we

be kind only point got or away, That it’s $XX of billion it land to where to we try of cases us invested $X.X the have is billion if and would watching erode controlled of conversion options have that ability some that in no or we The another if that pipeline so give going all We with do $X.X economics longer not through other million that. the we is seller all product, redesign the attractive. in cumulatively longer-term does the make. to may that the that ability

Rich Hightower

Right, question rates market in cap that up interest rates going the just makes sense. on then context my generally? of And

Matthew Birenbaum

Yes, far will rates every would an we impact mean see so frankly have have haven’t interesting down, seen be cap to that if going might and here. rates, you It thought coming between NOI on up interest short-term it. growth I prospects but had

deal year volume half, half bit and picked second first quite almost up last the with a down, certainly the Now of was in second half par 'XX. it on the in was

deals cap not here There going and data recently of as expectations in exceeded assets, we’ll So more but a we there to our lot we we the first half think sit are active probably certainly very of to looking have saw rates. for today to buy transaction terms are that. seen lot I capitals be sellers, then, it's so volumes, a have

Rich Hightower

for thanks Okay, that.

Operator

at Yulico Nick to next Moving UBS.

Unidentified Analyst

this Nick. [indiscernible] Hi, for good on is afternoon,

So geographies looking growth under X%. have just few at revenue growth are projection, same-store expected your to

across XXXX? for you in are it trends you would take thus in what markets York D.C. and and that and these far in perhaps positive So New these more to the particular get seeing markets

Sean Breslin

is Yes, Supply it’s function demand. simple what the now better a pretty it's you pretty a job big, is much looks answer, know growth. supply of like, which so side so

the to across the So extent growth growth job we're to mentioned I else force follow-up of immigration greater expecting that but my remarks, growth would job increase participation pretty the something labor would That that today. rent and a total since involve which little rates, to we're much regions, in see started in prepared to itself bit most in allow these we markets, when greater reverse general, of as our start employment better. full

Unidentified Analyst

Thank Okay. you.

recently the acquisition And each. your plan South Denver an to announced you've so Florida only market, enter already again you've made in in

and to your about call areas these So bigger the or in planning what immediate year footprint are more do so? opportunities picture, you perhaps thinking you grow how in term it next

Matthew Birenbaum

I and those may would development. developers a George, acquisitions on we to development, organic think, of We with ready that we -- do are presence that other deals gap. our call, closer expect we bridge wind in we kind mentioned, ultimately one overtime, of who grow partnering from through sourcing and then capital up way as kind have providing day And be to markets Mat. also local starting, to may last to this is the as

and and can in lot merchant opportunity; of is of is delivered There there that's there So, XXXX fund available to clear certainly exchanges. assets do through that product newly opportunities free is a markets. of build have we buy which we those where builders think debt, both

we for very So those looking expansion capital are markets then potentially months. our and to see year development in tax of partnerships. development some certainly we into of may to markets. XX that efficient we of looking this also us next in And would markets, have expect some buy so both XX legacy And for a business rotate I capital, here way the sites to those out to are move

Unidentified Analyst

All right. much. Thank you very

Operator

go will Lynch. Juan sir. we And Bank go of next America Merrill Please Sanabria at to ahead

Juan Sanbria

time. the for Thanks

on outlier, and on of that commented increase. driving listening that’s to you supply fact the your guess XX non-bank conviction in deliveries the standards? I presentation market specifically and began Is the just I comment California, could in level that are forecasting of an you and kind on money, if guys construction what’s particular a be an those because side, the you there see bank Just were Northern lenders

Sean Breslin

the of based chat relates decline or that at about of XXXX. the Yeah, banking Kevin we’re in process the supply of units on it projecting that as our I that on Sean. of relative across to also and conviction try level that’s earlier X.X% described is then that wanted happy to inventory, on this which I’m side. so a But Juan, XXXX, footprint now maybe to to Yeah, is XX,XXX call. around the

or of earlier submarkets. actually XXXX. our here directionally the XX would so process XXXX, it’s then most relates it markets. as job cycle what to in of mentioned I whether with what comes pretty something terms the see building But probably the result most across and But call putting And as if a 'XX Jose. appropriate I not delivered pulled see units process at occurs So of in of increase level that relates are said X,XXX I’d consistent footprint, our little like units. 'XX-'XX year about not delivered in it's is starting XXXX given that, bay's already level be building this known XX that’s say supply it it chance low, in off across the San areas We the And really you they up. expected in are pretty the in basically. it, San application Northern out margin of known well of sort which is we’re declined to Francisco terms quarter would that be delivered start footprint there California, correct or X,XXX have deceleration supply picked to the deliveries increases and And yet who east magnitude bit, that urban look that in missed in that order terms across our now of was a wrap is construction of been being seeing. first This pretty we XX, in or of certainly directionally, pipeline in it about pipeline or knows. to around X,XXX could in to to there

So San that in be with case the consistent we the to broader theme. Francisco, the expect would

Francisco comments on in can release in San of XXXX. like So some the see anecdotally San I And in little Jose, comp and side, east in as than bay then just well. make bit Kevin consistent pretty banking off

many standpoint at pricing then ULI also Tim some conversions We’re construction stress the certainly terms in lending; and short attend what’s higher it's events to having happening a deceleration and or Matt curve, from end myself of one as other our can system margins. that of in given was Matt at peers the costs, the have wide alluding still and squeezing private growth, But overall. still with boosting pricing the of

any there as terms of terms pressure side. thoughts in cost of on loan that? certainly it's overall to in as assets spread well Kevin, So

Kevin O'Shea

have more clearly know, financing, mean, bank, there who’s equity our from the an interactions on higher challenge you less think, it’s a investor a our use first of as market. degree construction with particularly levels, and and harder sponsor imposing you obtain supply and with To in the sponsors to is. in to all, do with for is described is construction capitalized wider I business. emphasis heard become what if lot leverage those or we’ve I great project But local of is more greater recourse financing and it we a amounts developers more requiring conversions Well, more just who spreads, conservatives, Sean, don’t consistent has what awful

system starting the out the at that some and cancel. from to So supply potential deals harder making squeeze to margin is

Juan Sanbria

any deliveries terms the Great, your of thank your built had some just contribution slippage or 'XX, into timing NOI 'XX. to you. XXXX and delivery development there of line? in you level in slippages And conservatives on Is for assumptions the then

Matthew Birenbaum

Jaun it’s Matt.

basically challenges is did we and lot in in time. every been quite from lease-up do and others. usually 'XX some actually has and offs initial We that in have getting fewer performance schedules quarter. deals starting general firstly risk getting update long year. is in marshals our that it's period what I last think And the the sign We over those of 'XX There expect. our about good fire are

it's lot think lot we like, we're is was what my it so probably there seems it's in deals, than feeling lot. I margin fewer mind a a error So good, year. expect and for last there They're just less pretty it

Juan Sanbria

Thank you.

Operator

Austin from of Capital hear next KeyBanc And Wurschmidt we'll Markets.

Austin Wurschmidt

Hi, afternoon. good

that and in exposure And competitive with or markets markets between up So supply? as any California, curious out XXXX. new a how pick I as in concessions just increase notable that out most the far exposed another be not your new have that whether and to as you you to sub three broke seen supply are stands specific market that Southern of

Sean Breslin

one of to Sean, to XX Austin, do expect Cal, year-over-year from increase in to that yes, is X.X% supply in the Yes, It's points. this for Southern we you. happy X.X take inventory basis to about

XX,XXX. is which about is As We X,XXX, on biggest about X,XXX and heavy things exceeded at remarks, think going X,XXX we because first is just about and about markets. LA, projected units is make to really from which it's back this imposed in is Orange on one is 'XX the about down last challenging. prepared I of don’t X.X% that the has, certain and markets driving up But X,XXX XXXX, about requirements pipeline new quite X,XXX are economics the of number to affordable somewhat which you developers JJJ for in Angeles, total, potentially passed terms know, units of inventory. fairly constrain County to a smaller it in make things units in other to in groups what’s is like mentioned X%. as expected that going more Santiago may supply then for in ordinance, frankly my cycle There amount Los the

therefore terms here. it Downturn terms a concentration in to of tends of a in in in concessions talking Korea little it's is about Anaheim and would to then and town includes bit supply, supply more and the then for Irvine, concessions, at and Beach we of And the In being Huntington where but it but all, we'll we're delivered In Orange levels County, see bit significant run play little significant Downtown you delivered not you for markets in expected LA, not sure, Santiago where well. so Santiago a be continue in to concessions. question at some and as XXXX, of which most again it's such, see your it, where LA, that heavy where it's amount you is sub have see heavy concessions the so it’s about --

and supply really of of Hollywood, Hollywood, concessions the West in sound, other Mid-Wilshire the is there portion LA create Downtown that of So, then kind a healthy there LA. amount

So of I'd norm, of are become saw any slightly deals some when we're we opened of bit but the year, Francisco maybe in that terms last above terms material that San in we not in what mind. concession those say submarkets activity

Austin Wurschmidt

the Is So not fairly in stable despite fact you you’re of the confidence that what University City, fact that Burbank notable areas. new the lot deliveries? remain type a revenue in gives see you’re in sort seeing uptake Glendale, same-store this that could that growth the

Sean Breslin

I think I exposure, it's both Yes, the answer. deliveries mean, the we are have where basic concentrated little

some the They’re which the Glendale? performing pretty those So Burbank of we’re right LA deliveries going in Pasadena affordable resulted assets concessions of have given the are assets in communities, best Burbank X% kind Yes. nature Is has we over seeing now. value to it in we oriented numbers. no; in doing are have

have be of and cements it out a both on asset, Downtown lease-up West in be in in sort Hollywood It’s finished and cetera. So Hollywood but trade lot if just LA the existing assets just I’d deals job design pro that we and forma we we concern, Koreatown, product, if terrific et Hollywood, five might and had worked concerned; the of rent great. of a little building location part substantially two the

the to about which of down feel fact pretty market. and flat year-over-year, slightly, we relatively that compared some it’s So happening good wide are we And in other be what’s the about pretty submarkets but markets, that the is to operate. it’s in we spread we job where given forget growth expected there

Austin Wurschmidt

you far to sort year. Baltimore believe, Sean. development, last curious Thanks grow you I’m the question, That’s project as region, suburban of as And Baltimore helpful. to then I in an new exposure what the completed asset And just of next region? kind appetite a started the there,

Matthew Birenbaum

Matt. We same-store Metro have the Baltimore this the in similar we are very stabilized Hi, assets have assets - and like Columbia, there only we fact, we is over or little in years, in Baltimore had Maryland. exposure the

Northern number behind if right Maryland long Washington time. you of was it have it, Virginia of suburban four at surprising and period look of much actually in us, so you sub-regional run you look D.C. the markets is if tree, a ahead Baltimore rent over two growth at So -- and kind long Metro,

done actually on like go. we deal start couple exposure Downtown We quite to This to would deal Baltimore. in the quarters we more finished So that Hunt of well. there, the we is do look have this Valley year,

the seeing that’s probably the markets it’s lease Atlantic, and in it’s supply. Mid among one also the So -

while than demand is favouring phenomenal, probably our demand so Virginia. been there balance Maryland has D.C. not or supply or better more So the okay, been and in

Austin Wurschmidt

Washington see Baltimore would D.C. parameters you of terms region? shaping your the wise within how market exposure that in So up

Matthew Birenbaum

I than today particular from now. portfolio see less of a X% our if at look type have work, you five from can We but overtime, to X% years to total growing X%

Austin Wurschmidt

Thanks. And then last acquired you share partials just were land one where two for January me. located? Can in the you

Matthew Birenbaum

Yeah.

I was believe them ... they or playing the both of of deals one Massachusetts. one in to think suburban them quarter two. I next in And were start was

Austin Wurschmidt

you one. to back on I'll that

Matthew Birenbaum

Yeah, back to you on come one. we’ll that

Austin Wurschmidt

for to in assume a Denver development fine. South no, million southern that you've start No, you within Florida this $XXX million targeted Do a $XXX in year? or start that’s

Sean Breslin

We're that some identified not -- we do so is have and are possibility. kind there percolating some deals along, that of

Matthew Birenbaum

that case, something certainly in sponsor. It would wouldn't be be with it acquire year. within And that be would this the we

… So

Austin Wurschmidt

Thanks Okay. the for time.

Operator

And Please we'll Associates. go & go next to at Dennis Zelman McGill ahead.

Dennis McGill

Hi, guys, you. thank

year, year. the the have same as of little through sales store fourth realized why on of thinking to that? you at slip you're And would year the of see throughout side? the there a Just if one how question in a the end you're and But a band be about the some dip maybe bit on there tight get down to is hoping supply trajectory starting quarter go just a on elevation clarity some the the

Matthew Birenbaum

a perform make not really how lot Yes, about. that. much function I whole delivery they of mean, a it's individual to store too pool the talk really us it's quarter-to-quarter, Dennis, through same into assets to the and

does there the growth but across quarter supply is start into at see read to our there XXXX some upside is of in fall fourth given when we to the a that quarter-by-quarter rally that. you look like better extent it to So footprint, the nothing off job

Dennis McGill

Land clarification, you City And that explain just can Okay. just then York one logistics off on New of parcel? write the noncash

Kevin O'Shea

on We, Manhattan we occupied in quarter, some the pursuant community lease XXXX. located project fair that fourth million Kevin. [indiscernible] the This doing so. option. market otherwise We since that Park's was has value in didn't acquired the $XX is acquired Morningside have extinguished ground in and are buyout lease the the Sure. we to for the We a it and completed is land which ground resets and from

the initially you long run opportunity lease rate. we that range, a associated have to ground limited So lease essentially, acquisition $X.X get in alluded perspective little from it because and be a of we have some But we eliminated will million term to off. was bit with go X% probably that a pretty X% rents IRR with a think ground prepaid to land attractive it levered

Dennis McGill

that's Okay, helpful. Thanks guys.

Operator

your Chao next I'm John no hearing at Vincent check we'll Stifel. next Deutsche moving button. And please response Hi to Guinee to And mute sir, And from go at that Bank. line.

Vincent Chao

assumptions Hey, commentary Appreciate on the the good to all growth that's that your of in afternoon, your and sort the everyone. in helpful supply job growth are of wage in met outlook market. terms

any you 'XX? was just are increases rates, curious relative in ended ownership embedding terms home we of I rates where ownership in additional home So

Timothy Naughton

just of my Yes, in mentioned remarks, years where than be prior are I housing. Vincent, was in has cycle is the as rental expecting predominantly more demand this housing I this say, to it balanced we Tim. been

favoring this fundamentals mentioned, I the how year slightly sales we you know. As for as see could just

think kind about rates off sale. If the cohort at it. could maybe quarters get you prospect thinking that rates potentially you're age rising, who the surprise some seeing right certainly may interest here next, the that of home and for some be the confidence up. been the the for have ownership ticked have of say now looking levels stimulate across kind you’re people have see whenever And I few as least we sideline, that for wouldn’t of continue I next

sale So of single family growth housing prices, versus things almost being implicit all growing rent I real the for family think, X% single in stronger than expect bit side. demand we a equal, single-digit, roughly mid sort little and

Vincent Chao

been equity quite then basically expense your maybe a But just expense for And same-store things. different - expenses the the outlook that? curious unchanged I’m the full looking might just Okay. the would that you that. have line side some I year, of pressure to it allow Thanks at upward put bit offsets what get to the does was just on items from to seem like residential items yesterday. your since year-over-year, XXXX. on there some were Kept normalized be for relative

Timothy Naughton

outlook there sort happened It Yes. for of CapEx. through the run

It’s X.X%, of in with going to be is earnings give X.X, about XX% of XXXX Probably make As basically you release, going we XX% are some the did provided in our range X noted. midpoint structure. to the you what OpEx total up to They’re taxes about OpEx. of we just the X up perspective. increase in the top on as

reasons to that certain a its markets to bit probably efficient. honest, number increase we’ve payroll, which XX%, try the about different regions of bodies Another and stronger reduced give you more X.X%, but a expect in be at some for little we to than

SEO form two to the marketing, in inter of give actually of other projects. a utilities, XX% growth that and So sustainability we’ve made it’s sort. that et LED call we’re tour be We’ve And to terms But mix when year-over-year, bucks seven basis and paying engaging to has costs you of volume are years repair of of seeing the And to in in that an of pilots X,XXX however, you’re about online example, continue year-over-year. we’re up expect payoff we we’ve rate can it The things cost on our of number of solar the lease cost all this for -- taken that last some implemented offset, pretty phone pressure payroll. sound costs doesn’t running the it but scale so a terms continued based the meaningful, that over then last search that types replacing That in categories, lease of on were from in the are investments call email a of items. course like also cetera, people the sense, centre activity. that other marketing other now which selling we’re down. offsets whether some terms survey or reductions or but reply getting of where invest call an those bucks zero you’ve line about marketing down couple months. The year per bit other XX% categories, and XX% a email And some of in the we are maintenance bodies last answer in this centre would to number little or year, management we phone investments where a or that’s online, addition and or for scheduling onsite tours is of but with house to is there in is fast got. things about offsetting zero, in about a over XX and the brought of to points of

market the taxes sort of that there So things and on property pressures of can of some like up the add seeing places. to are number offset to we’re in other labor and

Vincent Chao

Okay.

and the buckets, smaller ones of those other So sort the negative be again just, the in could here utilities those highlighted sounds it and really about that market seem then thinking XXXX like? you've really

Timothy Naughton

that of on they we’re of sure out, offset some seeing category, in this It’s yes. a play setting pressure the possibility but for how things

Vincent Chao

you. it, okay, Got thank

Timothy Naughton

Yes.

Operator

next go to will of we W. Babin And Drew Robert Baird.

Drew Babin

the most and Question afternoon. the of mean, the of on Can the size evaluate? potentially debt balance year. the Hey, is interest expect $X.XX rate is of we hedge, good million this dispositions comprised guidance issuance of I mostly $XXX stock should capital sourcing, that the in indication billion that of price

Kevin O'Shea

is a couple Drew, just Kevin. Hey Well, this of comments.

did increasing you this down anticipated billion capital and a cash expect practice, about rates hedging in that’s amount issuance. years we practice recent any hedging had pronounced, don’t it’s debt as as the that matter a bit this prospect did an overall break we million interest portion of $X.XX of of of internal to further, our of net has historically of we the and disclosed more $XXX have become as First a activity typically of source, of we, flow a We we provided we year. year, point do prospective out on

So one relationship. for it's necessarily one not

And equity know, common $X.XX stepping of. back are that cumulatively pretty roughly for so, tap, tell us we sales as as you unattractive looking markets debt. appreciate we typically sources that and we we are Common at you as equity, have three and but, and - billion, can asset unsecured all

pretty The attractive. The attractive, about already market. so unsecured the market remain continues other bit Matt two a markets little talked debt transaction to be

capital the exactly and plan on role. and our So of components the expectation unsecured denominate that sales but contemplate one haven’t form the disclosed we our billion We those of asset in $X.XX debt, items.

Drew Babin

on management. Which expense the are has a forecasted it then Okay, expenses and most And overhead those looks side, investment the behind little management like those G&A that? the higher between primary three understood. than of driver been property

Timothy Naughton

this Yes, Tim. is

start last are start related then versus rewards anticipating projected impact unique of areas that area In just terms budget. year the seniors just best some now sorry, some are over retired which expenses actually of in the but some XXXX, couple have there with outlook in accounts by year of the G&A accelerate headwinds and have accumulate LTI That or that we there next way, goal for half creates the some year, about multiyear 'XX. this thing and or a we compensation, that the LTI for maybe litigation number actually have to non-core I'm we are plus exit year, of increase on the XXXX past in that

as that at the is capability last good, cycle when course it asked other business G&A this revenue analytics look actually, though getting know, are, management X.X% is you in say, low guess, we’ve been pressure of REIT running below, You growth I provides over about end are cycle of below ours, I overhead, I’d even line and our at you of is and the And well. probably thing sort favorable actually again -- bps, XX% been those about we on to growth. of keep and year about XX some over in metrics which of quite to the in guess and later too, has building data last where are top of we stabilization sort cycle, which has it's capabilities, a are that line just say XX% invest terms running I is the we architecting top or the always the an they which quite spend of of at growth objective the sector, area is our been,

things a this kind of that a than little different coming a of bit are unique year places, higher number number are from creating it’s average So G&A of but growth.

Drew Babin

you. All Thank right. That’s helpful.

Operator

And Conor at we’ll go Please ahead. next to Green Wagner Street Advisors. go

Conor Wagner

Can fourth your the lease please? guidance, you. quarter new those then us growth in please assumptions Thank and tell underlying XXXX your renewal you and for

Sean Breslin

Yeah, Conor, happy it’s Sean, that. to do

And of and X%. renewals X%, rise rate our in that kept that down right about year growth And is X.X%, think then potential the expect then rent QX for to about which basing census of points for basis move we XXXX, of about change that about rent outlook in life bucket, from the terms is XXXX 'XX, points the and fourth XX basis In change it same in be is which term give full you store XXXX. number around in way some was terms down now. XX the we portfolio

put together two of kind of session our get feel to little they the those can a the up midpoint in you is flat So, off bit that pick of guidance. how

Conor Wagner

right. All

then occupancy is assumption the So flat?

Sean Breslin

Yes. flat. It’s

Conor Wagner

you’ve sending been out on And Okay. and in then January in February? Thank are where renewals maybe you. them

Sean Breslin

Yes.

we or the of in January revenue in which January X.X% range. about And to in above rental bps around trending of rents terms then X.X% are is to January, expected XX growth this, running terms total X%, change growth, In see December. where is

mid X% bps February-March, is for in offers there renewal the year. were last of flow terms about In XX range,

Conor Wagner

rates for then, you rate because Great. earlier it prevailing currently pipeline cap What the spread looks deals cap like right a market to yield rate you maybe estimate you some suburban. been pipeline. the of there the on have have much. what I right cap development And your little now? a mid-X is bit mentioned more recent the understand do underlying very I want in Matt on Thank you think, development just And

Matthew Birenbaum

started it On right on the stuff, hasn’t yet the development pipeline?

Conor Wagner

start Yes, the or to expect they year? in can next

Matthew Birenbaum

podium a into spread. of us, it's of the mid suburban about kind I are mean, and most the of I high points basis a lot near XXs, think rates kind for wrap, of starts cap term, that in probably is are XXX which is

Kevin O'Shea

Yes, Conor, and I would sixes have mid terms three said same, development it’s four yield. up quarters versus in of to low projecting

Sean Breslin

that And probably basket. four of this type underwritten, cap just started -- just quarter, you averaged I four deal deals six rate actually those high and the look we the that at on would in add fix also vocationally very again similar kind if past

Conor Wagner

from rates all seller or And you. right, you in active. pricing there standpoint? the you move adjustments up are equation, bit when know or pricing maybe so I Thank little there development adjustment the in you the it's any guys were - different move Did pretty see but Okay. those it’s on picked on fourth any was a any quarter, any

Sean Breslin

about from interesting how of Not as that partnership of two already deal. as usually anywhere time on And cases from When look actually months a business. RFP, is type we’ve right, building three as more California you private our by at development, Northern been to third an long they broke a hit year it public some so. in release was a down, or necessarily, working them the it mix

of California, hard little reflect of that bit third terms market pricing may edge So is them probably a them not flexible those pricing and will. are the entitled. one more you About if in Southern kind were a of of

this The to do other expect year. we start

stuff. but little Suburban and see kind crazy, land run one third is didn't down Long at of Island lot So quite suburban starting Baltimore, to bread say we're pricing up it bit we so a I Suburban drift still pricing And bit, little I'd there maybe did looked years a them was I about the a And think aggressively, pricing several actually infill have as aggressive. deals of of of of that a think where of deal those that. ago a Boston, kind was gotten butter then our there pretty Baltimore, hasn't

Conor Wagner

Thank you much. very

Operator

Hill And next Rich at we'll to Stanley. move Morgan

Rich Hill

guys. you thank Hey,

if to you've demand portfolio? you're and the your maybe reflecting that curious about the to you've side I about starting about talked any that in you can migration growth to trends markets market growth, And move as you want I'm understanding Florida are the curious, I'm of Denver and back job population which know but participating equation of talked X%. population migrations. how see talk is in? Just guidance

Kevin O'Shea

Sure. or true Florida as has to market probably frankly other particularly immigration. characterized domestic over for norm, some maybe which that domestic attractions been is migration to can in been you well cycle, This Tim have historical international migration Metro as And particularly to longer of and history D.C., have I actually expansion and out time. early saw well. the immigration then that that for than which historically sitting international the X years. and pretty today, of domestic speak as Denver is migration which our our is have nice chime it's that's strong one Southeast we're markets unusual of want back if as Certainly a markets have Sean, actually period both little a bit the cycle, in in in international Miami. and Where this out immigration was markets some domestic immigration, This they

kind is seeing say trends I'd that's past what years. to XX they've or So for we're XX of very been reverting much today what the

Rich Hill

Got gives it, again to and so going I just your a opinion? What job follow-up growth if that, story may. the in

Sean Breslin

we're it We have is margin, it's are the only well think again jobs the that force it skills right later starting to up unfilled happen the the publicized. The fill gets really thing and late labor cycle. don't necessarily but which rates going participation to at today. I going is

you mean maybe So that productivity but will, marginally growth think that job it. like too, rates. stronger formation consolidation, actually we correction growth, job summer which earlier doesn’t start before growth, seeing I you it in make see -- seen expect to the maybe for be we -- job to does we the than to we And I of higher wage housing materially of does growth. a think won't maths the other is seen to it's It be growth we kind household going honest if deconsolidation, stronger see haven't

look there drop, household next of with suggest million $X could the million projecting in potentially in still some So there years. economists million a economy $X we from the formation couple is that some growth, grow the of million there you is when drivers lot $X still, are $X of could are at that wage to to kind

Rich Hill

household it, Got the understood argument. and formation

than So maybe still just side more going value. replacement of creation is supply back attractive equation, to to value looks the us the it the like

tightening at stops looks requesting. you’re cycle, getting It looking less we supply the all lending as as ago. to at standards more supply pressures? where previously are developers we’re put years little just clear and the like bit the all late supply that? simple as -- three seeing was seeing we in that bit supply are Is a what just it that of place leads on were little It So the than because numbers on cautious we is

Sean Breslin

single mean, basically evident the is million, for a today to per outstripping we’re at also side, about seeing still $X factor of XXX,XXX seeing million supply family think probably level. demand some XXX,XXX lessons in prices inflation year, saying household for units, looking a at production we’re or we’re maybe we’re at -- growing a -- you being of dynamics formation there growing I sale about rental, right, we’re and type margin versus what when mostly if inflation I you’re rental on $X between housing more that’s than and

dynamic rates of more in and rental of a sort is the virtually for back third a that between that’s the about family of the think, started same virtually all way think to and tick balanced, two-thirds that and I single have to customer little normal kind we by we’re market housing is that up seeing sale bit. all mix we’re two-thirds about are where that sale. multifamily ownership for rental one-third, Housing of So,

Rich Hill

it, Got just so, most part? market the normalization for

Sean Breslin

yes. so, could That

Rich Hill

ask some additional guys. I offline, Great, may thank but questions Okay. you.

Operator

go we’ll Markets. to Kim Capital John next BMO And at

John Kim

years about question average as Is the for year declined nine dispositions last this to into for under that. willing on assets? average should Thank on as how far prior a anything years quickly XX we your years you’re and there to sold trends I period was XX had to you. holding on assets prior it that read

Matthew Birenbaum

just really, Hi, based John, really I is it it’s asset individual Matt. Not mean, characteristics. on

year one kind it’s geographic based So our on I both going each capacity mean, we constrain have I the to take is vary of our gains. mean to and, goals tax

huge period the other. developed And tax with have way lesser some assets value assets or may but we’ve the so no the at and us time that creation beginning, that change assets on just there see are to been sometimes strategy have you is so depreciated those holding and long a lesser because have starting specific find around of one the

John Kim

they more where recent skew assets acquired On dispositions it towards assets? developed or

Matthew Birenbaum

we the in both majority Well, we of it as bought, almost years. doing portfolio the have our of we’ve developed Archstone were done were the one-offs we other is one podium I other asset the a -- fund than we vast most all what assets that is of was own kind acquisition big which over portfolio the assets, because mean, than

half to assets of tend does we’ve sold, it So wholly the the being be of on developed. side on more the assets

Kevin O'Shea

that capital of particularly think continue we’ll couple I development been but those developing. where peers, that, just of some there deep growth self out overall in of to We the continuing selling, in pipeline on add and just managing can last should John, largely We to have been we a takes recycle, some Yes, assets per pretty have expend probably sort spend years, exposure. all say Northeast portfolio markets. that’s

John Kim

one, then presentation of slide turn XX being 'XX. to back 'XX more towards And the to development Okay. versus skewed and your delivery

competitors of your you’ve baked the do is more that’s I supply forecast of said planned, this is this think and probably some most not interaction market for to a there XX? into happening risk think it that you due slide but in delays, to on

Sean Breslin

the business what noted Sean. those construction. under started when that for I those Yes, rise, high I the I are whether deals products is which and John, of planned schedule mid mix with its based slide to duration XX it's is that’s and spoke jobs construction, associated garden, on rise expected

of it of have earlier, is relates noted that as the Matt there real delivery quarter maybe modules that some on to in of schedule. pretty anticipated that deliver, to no start And delays already the 'XX. So and fourth terms started that in as much portfolio third

there, confident just take that not would on to be So QX business, 'XX risk it mix feel is, wouldn’t it's so that's as or based deliveries, pretty new QX, delays about there scheduled. is virtually what of we delay until from no given just which the and 'XX,

Timothy Naughton

less reflective a Yes, is and this what I mean pipeline. we to mean quite in of I happens have is pipeline [indiscernible] you're pretty 'XX to our than market, deliveries asking. a and not moves 'XX, particular in be It's the This that market the the deals we market through. will bit the delivering more as flow whole. that in how our be Our having expectation when XXXX, just to is see

John Kim

Alright, okay. Thank you.

Operator

Alexander O'Neill. next go we'll at And Goldfarb Sandler to

Alexander Goldfarb

afternoon, Hey, thank good you.

Just some questions for quick you.

quarter or so debt modeling rate million as that, of First Kevin, what prepay, a the and at? timing on with associated is there rate we're what $XXX

Kevin O'Shea

kind million the that skewed million maturing, interest is front million or $XX do that half, offs is expect. some just have prepayment cadence, of payoffs. don’t $XX $XXX underneath modest of X% be, throughout to the where of elected the to X%, got will a cadence overall, they to just that the elected and penalty year. think, be scheduled a X% is the and it's because positive couple play blended that between it mature you've them we as but is are a that $XX each to at would have year, pretty some but sort going toward Probably actually deals rate Alex, I rates are have associated Sure, NPV million or I probably with another you so look it’s probably And

Alexander Goldfarb

provide Okay. with And owned same develop. to at made the the Denver mentioned then on entity yield I the them your for you differential capital to South on be developments? and think there to local would the What wholly Florida, you where would looking allow versus be you that partner

Matt Birenbaum

kind we Hi, Matt. of that a depend a have to of our will with somewhere goal, And the ultimately we're partner in buy third half do the Alex, It’s of an out acquisition and would the in about between thinking between wholly an question. responsibilities, completion, way the so it's development, owned so of a risks to a we at but and is point, take and it bit is ultimately way this probably on good option that’s little asset on that as business allocation it. yield kind the deal asset. the Every different, that a of

Alexander Goldfarb

a to up Okay, -- so thing closer an it's to third meaning yield peer closer other to development, half way? versus so the closer acquisition to

Matt Birenbaum

is would risk. own like Yeah, construction if very depending taking we versus is in construction think risk so these depending risk those risks deals, there how of types again, we not on And that. entitlement we way of in coming is kind each of risks are Yeah, pursue there I you entitlement how continue owned lease-up of risk, taken and risk, sponsors there about they risks. of and that’s, what feel much the own the the it there and to three wouldn’t think buckets the lease-up want price to and we’re we different risk of any we is, developments, would the really is kind

Alexander Goldfarb

Okay. if sorry. then miss before, I’m this finally, and just And I

quarter. $X.X and at of third billion now is $X.X end was pipeline billion Your it the

bought only million $XX land. of You

million? that the drove delta the was what XXX up pipeline shadow almost So by

Matt Birenbaum

not the is Yeah. sites -- the under development math it’s The way land about works owned, it’s controls. the that about

billion all development in kind added any of new were of quarter rights, million we at So of $X.X started land have billion, us of bought would we to those that for were we $X.X but billion, which the rates. $XXX none started we which in $X taken then down options, development which

So that’s you billion. how get to $X.X

Alexander Goldfarb

Okay. you. Thank

Operator

Instructions] to And we’ll [Indiscernible]. [Operator next go

Unidentified Analyst

this going. around just clarify 'XX. given your comments 'XX keep supply of to to about I and some sorry Yes, wanted

differently peak again better XQ than have as although year. started access in to the demand saying also think Specifically a 'XX steadily or 'XX, all kind getting mean be the 'XX supply of better improving progresses what things is should seen the you in then steady saying from and versus kind you 'XX think of about kind thinking of of progression environment actual rest we thinking believe? for you're data I as or to telling we be you're data everyone seems I --

Sean Breslin

Yeah, [indiscernible], this is Sean.

QX. I we to think, in you quarter-by-quarter start supply anything of said peak but if through Just to decelerate doesn’t QX, the 'XX at cadence about look be it clear, until

XX our basis QX you you we as more little into give XX it off around QX are in is to Just decelerate then and precisely falls further and basis and basis breakdown about points QX, points, probably points and move about but normally XX QX and XXXX.

those 'XX. are off numbers fourth steadily, the of but there fall markets you of where the the quarters see So supply are a through across couple footprint more

Unidentified Analyst

That’s Okay. you. helpful. Thank

Sean Breslin

Yeah.

Operator

questions additional this no have time. we appears it at And

to I’d like additional remarks, you for sir. any to the back or concluding Naughton, Mr. So, program turn over

Timothy Naughton

call And look Thank at Laurie, a on being you to everybody day. various Have good for the today. the you, forward we seeing in conferences. months thanks and coming

Operator

I’d conclude ladies and to today’s joining And everyone today. gentlemen, that once like thank for does again us again, conference. And